Sun, Nov 1 at 1:00 PM ET · Highmark Stadium
Expected score: BAL 17.5 – BUF 28.7
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): BAL 3.53 · BUF 1.4
Team ratings (Elo): BAL 1493.9 vs BUF 1590.2. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
BAL (4-3) — 7 days rest
Last 5: 3-2 (2 straight losses)
| Oct 25, 2026 | CIN | L | 13-35 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | CLE | L | 10-13 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | ATL | W | 30-23 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | TEN | W | 24-18 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | DAL | W | 34-31 |
BUF (5-1) — 13 days rest
Last 5: 4-1 (2 straight wins)
| Oct 18, 2026 | LV | W | 33-30 |
| Oct 12, 2026 | LAR | W | 37-34 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | NE | L | 26-29 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | LAC | W | 24-16 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | DET | W | 41-31 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2024 | BAL 35 - BUF 10 | BAL |
| Sep 7, 2025 | BUF 41 - BAL 40 | BUF |
Week 8 report — applies to this week's game. Designations published for this game week. Game-day inactives can still differ.
BAL
| Olaivavega Ioane | Questionable | Ioane (knee) was a limited participant at the Ravens' practice Thursday. |
| T.J. Tampa | Injured Reserve | Tampa (knee) was a full participant at the Ravens' practice Thursday. |
| Roquan Smith | Questionable | Smith (knee) was limited in Thursday's practice. |
| Kyle Hamilton | Questionable | Hamilton (knee) was limited in practice Thursday. |
| Lamar Jackson | Questionable | Jackson (ankle) was a full participant at Thursday's practice, Jeff Zrebiec of The Athletic reports. |
| Jaylinn Hawkins | Questionable | Hawkins (knee) was a non-participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Adam Randall | Injured Reserve | The Ravens opened Randall's (neck) 21-day practice window Wednesday. |
| John Simpson | Questionable | questionable |
| Tavius Robinson | Injured Reserve | The Ravens placed Robinson (pectoral) on injured reserve Saturday. |
| Broderick Washington Jr. | Active | Washington (ankle) logged a full practice Thursday. |
| Ronnie Stanley | Active | Stanley (toe) practiced in full Thursday. |
| John Jenkins | Active | |
| Josh Cuevas | Active | Cuevas caught two of three targets for 35 yards during the Ravens' 35-13 loss to the Bengals on Sunday. |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | Active | Lane caught three of five targets for 25 yards during Sunday's 35-13 loss to the Bengals. |
| Justice Hill | Active | Hill took three carries for seven yards and caught three of four targets for 26 yards during Sunday's 35-13 loss versus the Bengals. |
| Rashod Bateman | Active | Bateman caught two of four targets for 33 yards during Sunday's 35-13 loss to the Bengals. |
| Andrew Vorhees | Active | |
| Elijah Sarratt | Active | |
| Mark Andrews | Active | Andrews caught three of four targets for 23 yards in Sunday's 35-13 loss to the Bengals. |
| Tyler Huntley | Active | Huntley completed 23 of 34 passes for 298 yards with a touchdown and an interception while adding three rushes for 12 yards in the Ravens' 35-13 loss to the Bengals on Sunday. |
| Tyler Loop | Active | Loop went 2-for-2 on field-goal tries and made his only PAT during Sunday's 35-13 loss to the Bengals. |
| Derrick Henry | Active | Henry rushed 17 times for 45 yards and brought in one of two target for four yards in the Ravens' 35-13 loss to the Bengals on Sunday. |
| Zay Flowers | Active | Flowers brought in eight of 11 targets for 137 yards and a touchdown in the Ravens' 35-13 loss to the Bengals on Sunday. |
| Cam Jurgens | Active | Jurgens (concussion) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Bengals. |
| Matt Hibner | Active | Hibner (hand) was a full participant at practice Thursday. |
BUF
| Dalton Kincaid | Questionable | Kincaid (chest) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| DJ Moore | Questionable | Moore (shoulder) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Joe Andreessen | Questionable | questionable |
| Ray Davis | Questionable | Davis didn't participate in Thursday's practice due to an illness, Matt Parrino of The Syracuse Post-Standard reports. |
| Tyrell Shavers | Out | The Bills designated Shavers (knee) to return from the reserve/PUP list Wednesday, but he will not play against the Ravens on Sunday, Cameron Wolfe of NFL Network reports. |
| TJ Parker | Questionable | questionable |
| Bradley Chubb | Questionable | questionable |
| Dee Alford | Questionable | questionable |
| Spencer Brown | Questionable | questionable |
| C.J. Gardner-Johnson | Suspension | reserve-sus |
| Ed Oliver | Active | Oliver (knee) was a full participant at the Bills' practice Thursday. |
| T.J. Sanders | Active | |
| Sam Franklin Jr. | Active | The NFL reduced Franklin's discipline from a one-game suspension to a fine of $14,926, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports. |
| Dorian Williams | Active | Williams logged five tackles (three solo) and one pass defensed for an interception in the Bills' 33-30 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Davison Igbinosun | Active | Defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard praised Igbinosun's play earlier this week and plans to keep giving the rookie a good amount of playing time, Alec White of the Bills' official site reports. Said Leonard, "I think what he's done the last couple weeks, he's definitely earned a high majority of the snaps at the corner position. I know what I'm getting, play in and play out." |
| Dawson Knox | Active | Knox caught his only target for no gain during Sunday's 33-30 win at Las Vegas. |
| Tyler Bass | Active | Bass converted all four of his field-goal attempts and all three of his extra-point tries during Buffalo's win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Ty Johnson | Active | Johnson logged a three-yard carry and caught both of his targets for 24 yards during the Bills' 33-30 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Joshua Palmer | Active | Palmer caught one of two targets for 37 yards during Buffalo's 33-30 win over Las Vegas on Sunday. |
| Mike Danna | Active | |
| Jude Bowry | Active | |
| Ar'maj Reed-Adams | Active | |
| Keon Coleman | Active | Coleman brought in four of six targets for 59 yards and a touchdown in the Bills' 33-30 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Khalil Shakir | Active | Shakir brought in four of six targets for 34 yards and a touchdown in the Bills' 33-30 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Josh Allen | Active | Allen completed 23 of 33 passes for 255 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions and rushed five times for one yard in the Bills' 33-30 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
63.9°F, wind 5.6 mph, precip 0.0 mm (next 1h), partlycloudy_day
Forecast for Sun, Nov 1 at 1:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (BAL): ~267 miles, no time-zone change