Sun, Nov 1 at 1:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium
Expected score: LV 21.3 – NYJ 24.9
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): LV 2.35 · NYJ 1.74
Team ratings (Elo): LV 1414.2 vs NYJ 1401.2. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
LV (3-4) — 6 days rest
Last 5: 1-4 (4 straight losses)
| Oct 25, 2026 | LAR | L | 21-35 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | BUF | L | 30-33 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | NE | L | 17-45 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | KC | L | 27-30 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | NO | W | 35-27 |
NYJ (2-5) — 7 days rest
Last 5: 1-4 (2 straight losses)
| Oct 25, 2026 | MIA | L | 25-28 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | NE | L | 19-26 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | CLE | W | 17-12 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | CHI | L | 12-23 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | DET | L | 24-31 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| No meetings in coverage period | ||
Week 8 report — applies to this week's game. Designations published for this game week. Game-day inactives can still differ.
LV
| Ian Thomas | Questionable | Thomas (shoulder) was a limited participant at the Raiders' practice Thursday. |
| Jack Bech | Injured Reserve | Bech (forearm) practiced fully Thursday. |
| Jackson Powers-Johnson | Questionable | questionable |
| Patrick Johnson | Questionable | Johnson (neck) did not participate in Wednesday's practice, Anthony Galaviz of The Fresno Bee reports. |
| Folorunso Fatukasi | Questionable | questionable |
| DJ Glaze | Questionable | questionable |
| Brock Bowers | Active | Bowers (calf) was a full practice participant Thursday. |
| Quay Walker | Active | |
| Jeremy Chinn | Active | Chinn finished Sunday's Week 7 loss to the Rams with seven tackles (three solo). He also recovered a fumble. |
| Nakobe Dean | Active | Dean produced 12 tackles and an interception in Sunday's loss to the Rams. |
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. | Active | The Raiders reinstated Thornton (hamstring) from injured reserve Tuesday. |
| Cody White | Active | White caught one of three targets for four yards in Sunday's 35-21 loss to the Rams. |
| Fernando Mendoza | Active | Mendoza did not appear in Sunday's 35-21 loss to the Rams. |
| Jalen Nailor | Active | Nailor caught two of five targets for 14 yards during Sunday's 35-21 loss to the Rams. |
| Kirk Cousins | Active | Head coach Klint Kubiak said that Cousins will remain the Raiders' starting quarterback heading into Sunday's game against the Jets, Paul Gutierrez of the team's official site reports. "There is no controversy," Kubiak said. "He is playing at a very high level." |
| Thomas Booker IV | Active | |
| Dalton Johnson | Active | |
| Tristin McCollum | Active | |
| Cian Slone | Active | |
| Bryce Cabeldue | Active | |
| Tre Tucker | Active | Tucker secured five of 12 targets for 103 yards and a touchdown in the Raiders' 35-21 loss to the Rams on Sunday. |
| Michael Mayer | Active | Mayer caught all three targets for 32 yards in Sunday's 35-21 loss to the Rams. |
| Mike Washington Jr. | Active | Washington rushed six times for 27 yards in Sunday's 35-21 loss to the Rams. |
| Ashton Jeanty | Active | Jeanty rushed eight times for 15 yards and brought in all eight targets for 61 yards and a touchdown in the Raiders' 35-21 loss to the Rams on Sunday. |
| Aidan O'Connell | Active | O'Connell (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the Raiders' emergency third quarterback against the Rams on Sunday. |
NYJ
| Breece Hall | Questionable | Hall (quadriceps) remained limited at Thursday's practice. |
| Joseph Ossai | Doubtful | Ossai (ankle) didn't participate in the Jets' practice Wednesday, Rich Cimini of ESPN.com reports. |
| David Bailey | Questionable | Bailey didn't practice Wednesday due to a groin injury. |
| T'Vondre Sweat | Doubtful | Sweat (knee) is week-to-week and is unlikely to suit up for Sunday's game against the Raiders, Rich Cimini of ESPN.com reported Wednesday. |
| Dylan Parham | Questionable | questionable |
| Max Mitchell | Questionable | questionable |
| Kiko Mauigoa | Injured Reserve | The Jets placed Mauigoa (quadriceps) on injured reserve Saturday, Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic reports. |
| Braelon Allen | Active | Allen (ankle) was a full participant at Thursday's practice. |
| Kene Nwangwu | Active | Nwangwu was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Garrett Wilson | Active | Wilson said Wednesday that he won't ask to be traded from the Jets, Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic reports. |
| Demario Davis | Active | Davis finished Sunday's Week 7 loss to Miami with three tackles (two solo) and one defensed pass. |
| Jamien Sherwood | Active | Sherwood totaled eight tackles (four solo) and two defensed passes Sunday in a loss to Miami. |
| Dane Belton | Active | Belton registered nine tackles (six solo) in Sunday's loss to the Dolphins. |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | Active | Fitzpatrick posted 10 tackles (six solo) Sunday in a loss to Miami. |
| Tim Patrick | Active | Patrick did not garner a target during Sunday's 28-25 loss to the Dolphins. |
| Adonai Mitchell | Active | Mitchell failed to haul in any of his three targets during the Jets' 28-25 loss to the Dolphins on Sunday. |
| Isaiah Davis | Active | Davis logged a five-yard carry and caught all three of his targets for 49 yards during Sunday's 28-25 loss to Miami. He also added a tackle on special teams. |
| Jack Heflin | Active | |
| Jarvis Brownlee Jr. | Active | |
| Kenyon Sadiq | Active | Sadiq caught his lone target for six yards in Sunday's 28-25 loss to the Dolphins. |
| Jason Sanders | Active | Sanders went 1-for-2 on field-goal tries and made both of his extra-point attempts during Sunday's 28-25 loss to Miami. |
| Mason Taylor | Active | Taylor caught all five of his targets for 62 yards and two touchdowns while adding a two-point conversion in Sunday's 28-25 loss to the Dolphins. |
| Geno Smith | Active | Smith completed 23 of 30 passes for 287 yards, three touchdowns and one interception in Sunday's 28-25 loss to the Dolphins. He also rushed twice for no gain and threw a successful two-point conversion. |
| Omar Cooper Jr. | Active | Cooper caught all five of his targets for 115 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 28-25 loss to the Dolphins. |
| Will McDonald IV | Active |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
58.8°F, wind 3.6 mph, precip 0.0 mm (next 1h), fair_day
Forecast for Sun, Nov 1 at 1:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (LV): ~2,228 miles, 3h time-zone shift east