Sun, Nov 1 at 4:05 PM ET · SoFi Stadium
Expected score: LAC 18.3 – LAR 27.9
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): LAC 3.22 · LAR 1.45
Team ratings (Elo): LAC 1474.2 vs LAR 1547.9. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
LAC (0-6) — 14 days rest
Last 5: 0-5 (5 straight losses)
| Oct 18, 2026 | KC | L | 6-22 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | DEN | L | 17-23 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | SEA | L | 23-30 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | BUF | L | 16-24 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | LV | L | 14-26 |
LAR (3-4) — 7 days rest
Last 5: 2-3 (1 straight win)
| Oct 25, 2026 | LV | W | 35-21 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | ARI | L | 16-18 |
| Oct 12, 2026 | BUF | L | 34-37 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | PHI | W | 24-20 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | DEN | L | 26-30 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| No meetings in coverage period | ||
Week 8 report — applies to this week's game. Designations published for this game week. Game-day inactives can still differ.
LAC
| Brenen Thompson | Questionable | Thompson (quadriceps/hamstring) did not practice Thursday. |
| Donte Jackson | Questionable | Jackson (hamstring) was limited in Thursday's practice. |
| Tre' Harris | Questionable | Harris (hamstring) remained limited in Thursday's practice. |
| Ladd McConkey | Questionable | McConkey (concussion) was a full participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Denzel Perryman | Injured Reserve | Head coach Jim Harbaugh said Wednesday that Perryman (undisclosed) is "close" to returning from injured reserve, Alex Insdorf of BoltBeat.com reports. |
| Deane Leonard | Questionable | Leonard (concussion) did not participate in Wednesday's practice, Alex Insdorf of BoltBeat.com reports. |
| Derwin James Jr. | Doubtful | James (hamstring) suffered a setback in his recovery and will likely miss Sunday's game against the Rams, Eric Smith of the Chargers' official site reports. |
| Rodney Shelley | Questionable | questionable |
| Kayode Awosika | Questionable | questionable |
| Bud Dupree | Active | Dupree (neck) is off the Chargers' injury report ahead of the team's matchup versus the Rams on Sunday. |
| Joe Alt | Active | Alt (neck) was not listed on the Chargers' official injury report Wednesday. |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith | Active | Lambert-Smith caught five of nine targets for 32 yards during Sunday's 22-6 loss at Kansas City. He also lost a fumble. |
| Cameron Dicker | Active | Dicker made both of his field-goal attempts in the Chargers' 22-6 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday. |
| Charlie Kolar | Active | Kolar caught three of six targets for 20 yards during the Chargers' 22-6 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday. |
| Kimani Vidal | Active | Vidal turned seven carries into 21 yards and caught three of four passes for 19 yards during the Chargers' 22-6 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday. |
| Keaton Mitchell | Active | Mitchell turned two carries into four yards, failed to haul in his lone target and returned four kickoffs for 87 yards during Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs. |
| Quentin Johnston | Active | Johnston caught one of three targets for 57 yards in Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs. |
| Justin Herbert | Active | Herbert completed 22 of 37 passes for 204 yards, no touchdowns and one interception in Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs. He also rushed five times for 26 yards. |
| Omarion Hampton | Active | Hampton rushed seven times for 18 yards and caught all four of his targets for 21 yards in Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs. |
| Daiyan Henley | Active | Henley (knee) is active for Sunday's game against the Chiefs. |
| Jamaree Caldwell | Active | |
| Dalvin Tomlinson | Active | |
| Kendall Williamson | Active | |
| Elijah Molden | Active | |
| Justin Eboigbe | Active |
LAR
| Colby Parkinson | Questionable | Parkinson (ribs) didn't practice Thursday, Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com reports. |
| Nate Landman | Questionable | Landman (concussion) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Stu Jackson of the Rams' official site reports. |
| Trent McDuffie | Questionable | McDuffie (groin) was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice, Stu Jackson of the Rams' official site reports. |
| Coleman Shelton | Questionable | questionable |
| Joe Cardona | Questionable | questionable |
| Terrance Ferguson | Injured Reserve | Ferguson (ankle) won't return to practice this week, Greg Beacham of the Associated Press reports. |
| Davante Adams | Injured Reserve | Head coach Sean McVay said Wednesday that Adams had successful surgery on his left hamstring, and the Rams are hopeful that the wide receiver will be able to return on the early side of his 6-to-10-week recovery timetable, Adam Grosbard of The Orange County Register reports. |
| Myles Garrett | Injured Reserve | Head coach Sean McVay said Wednesday that the Rams won't open Garrett's (knee) practice window this week, Greg Beacham of the Associated Press reports. |
| Kam Curl | Active | Curl logged four tackles (two solo) during the Rams' 35-21 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Quentin Lake | Active | Lake finished Sunday's 35-21 win over the Raiders with seven tackles (four solo). |
| Jordan Whittington | Active | Whittington wasn't targeted in Sunday's 35-21 win over the Raiders. |
| Tutu Atwell | Active | Atwell wasn't targeted in Sunday's 35-21 win over the Raiders. |
| Konata Mumpfield | Active | Mumpfield caught one of two targets for 15 yards during Sunday's 35-21 win at Las Vegas. |
| Tyler Higbee | Active | Higbee caught two of three targets for 14 yards during Sunday's 35-21 win over the Raiders. |
| Bill Murray | Active | |
| Max Klare | Active | |
| Keagen Trost | Active | |
| Matthew Stafford | Active | Stafford completed 23 of 29 passes for 195 yards with three touchdowns and one interception and rushed three times for minus-3 yards in the Rams' 35-21 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Blake Corum | Active | Corum rushed 17 times for 93 yards and a touchdown and brought in his only target for eight yards in the Rams' 35-21 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Davis Allen | Active | Allen caught four of five targets for 20 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 35-21 win over the Raiders. |
| Kyren Williams | Active | Williams rushed 16 times for 99 yards and a touchdown and brought in both targets for 22 yards in the Rams' 35-21 win over the Raiders on Sunday. He also lost a fumble. |
| Puka Nacua | Active | Nacua brought in eight of 10 targets for 68 yards and a touchdown and rushed twice for 10 yards in the Rams' 35-21 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Brandon McManus | Active | McManus did not attempt a field goal and went 5-for-5 on extra-point tries during Sunday's 35-21 win over the Raiders. |
| Jaylen Watson | Active | |
| Ty Simpson | Active | Simpson (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the Rams' emergency third quarterback against the Raiders on Sunday, Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com reports. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
70.5°F, wind 9.2 mph, precip 0.0 mm (next 1h), fair_day
Forecast for Sun, Nov 1 at 4:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (LAC): Travel note unavailable (venue coordinates missing).