Sun, Nov 1 at 4:25 PM ET · Empower Field at Mile High
Expected score: KC 17.1 – DEN 29.1
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): KC 3.7 · DEN 1.37
Team ratings (Elo): KC 1496.2 vs DEN 1603.8. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
KC (5-1) — 6 days rest
Last 5: 4-1 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 25, 2026 | SEA | L | 3-20 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | LAC | W | 22-6 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | LV | W | 30-27 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | MIA | W | 24-10 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | IND | W | 33-30 |
DEN (5-2) — 7 days rest
Last 5: 4-1 (3 straight wins)
| Oct 25, 2026 | ARI | W | 30-16 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | SEA | W | 17-14 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | LAC | W | 23-17 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | SF | L | 14-24 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | LAR | W | 30-26 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2024 | KC 16 - DEN 14 | KC |
| Jan 5, 2025 | DEN 38 - KC 0 | DEN |
| Nov 16, 2025 | DEN 22 - KC 19 | DEN |
| Dec 25, 2025 | KC 13 - DEN 20 | DEN |
| Sep 14, 2026 | KC 31 - DEN 10 | KC |
Week 8 report — applies to this week's game. Designations published for this game week. Game-day inactives can still differ.
KC
| Mansoor Delane | Questionable | Delane (shoulder) did not practice Thursday. |
| Rashee Rice | Questionable | Rice (hamstring/knee) remained a limited participant at Thursday's practice. |
| Travis Kelce | Questionable | Kelce (ankle) was listed as a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Jaylon Moore | Questionable | Moore (concussion) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Omarr Norman-Lott | Out | The Chiefs designated Norman-Lott (knee) to return from injured reserve Wednesday. |
| L'Jarius Sneed | Questionable | questionable |
| Brashard Smith | Injured Reserve | The Chiefs placed Smith (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday. |
| Cyrus Allen | Active | Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said Wednesday that Allen will "get a little bit more [snaps]" during Sunday's game against the Broncos, Nate Taylor of ESPN.com reports. |
| Harrison Butker | Active | Head coach Andy Reid said Wednesday that Butker will "probably" serve as the Chiefs' kicker in Sunday's game against the Broncos, Sam McDowell of The Kansas City Star reports. |
| Chamarri Conner | Active | Conner finished Sunday's 20-3 loss to Seattle with seven tackles (two solo). |
| Nohl Williams | Active | Williams finished Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks with 10 tackles (four solo) and one interception. |
| Nick Bolton | Active | Bolton registered 11 tackles (six solo) during the Chiefs' 20-3 loss to the Seahawks on Sunday. |
| Drue Tranquill | Active | Tranquill finished Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks with 12 tackles (four solo). |
| Andrew Armstrong | Active | Armstrong caught one of two targets for three yards during Sunday night's 20-3 loss to Seattle. |
| Noah Gray | Active | Gray caught three passes on as many targets for 44 yards during Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks. |
| Emmett Johnson | Active | Johnson caught two of three passes for 17 yards and returned three kickoffs for 81 yards during Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks. He also added two tackles on special teams. |
| Ben VanSumeren | Active | |
| Jack Pyburn | Active | |
| Jadon Canady | Active | |
| Xavier Worthy | Active | Worthy caught three of six targets for 11 yards in Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks. |
| Patrick Mahomes | Active | Mahomes completed 19 of 33 passes for 165 yards, no touchdowns and one interception in Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks. He added two rushing attempts for 14 yards. |
| Kenneth Walker III | Active | Walker rushed 14 times for 36 yards while catching four of five targets for 21 yards in Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks. |
| Garrett Nussmeier | Active | Nussmeier (coach's decision) is inactive as the emergency third quarterback for Sunday night's game against the Seahawks. |
| Cooper McDonald | Active | The Chiefs activated McDonald (knee) from injured reserve Saturday. |
| Jaydn Ott | Active | The Chiefs signed Ott from the practice squad to the active roster Saturday. |
DEN
| Talanoa Hufanga | Questionable | Hufanga (ankle) did not participate at the Broncos' practice Thursday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official website reports. |
| Zach Allen | Questionable | Allen (hamstring) was a limited participant at the Broncos' practice Thursday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official website reports. |
| Jaylen Waddle | Questionable | Waddle (chest) practiced in a limited capacity Thursday, Aric DiLalla of the Broncos' official site reports. |
| RJ Harvey | Questionable | Harvey (knee) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Brandon Jones | Questionable | questionable |
| Garett Bolles | Questionable | questionable |
| Tyler Badie | Injured Reserve | The Broncos placed Badie (thumb) on injured reserve Saturday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports. |
| Jonah Elliss | Injured Reserve | The Broncos placed Elliss (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports. |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | Active | Mims (ankle) practiced fully Thursday,Zac Stevens of TheDNVR.com reports. |
| Pat Surtain II | Active | Surtain (ankle) was a full practice participant Wednesday, Aric DiLalla of the Broncos' official site reports. |
| Alex Singleton | Active | Singleton recorded 19 tackles (12 solo) including 1.0 sacks during Sunday's 30-16 win at Arizona. |
| Evan Engram | Active | Engram caught one of three targets for two yards during Sunday's 30-16 win over the Cardinals. |
| Troy Franklin | Active | Franklin failed to bring in either of his two targets in the Broncos' 30-16 win over the Cardinals on Sunday. |
| Kage Casey | Active | |
| Tyler Onyedim | Active | |
| Jordan Jackson | Active | |
| Dallen Bentley | Active | |
| Courtland Sutton | Active | Sutton caught three of five targets for 45 yards during Sunday's 30-16 win over Arizona. |
| Jonah Coleman | Active | Coleman (ankle) rushed nine times for 54 yards and caught both of his targets for 15 yards in Sunday's 30-16 win over the Cardinals. |
| J.K. Dobbins | Active | Dobbins rushed six times for 23 yards and a touchdown and wasn't targeted in Sunday's 30-16 win over the Cardinals. |
| Bo Nix | Active | Nix completed 15 of 29 passes for 222 yards and a touchdown while rushing seven times for 73 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 30-16 win over the Cardinals. |
| Wil Lutz | Active | Lutz went 3-for-3 on field-goal tries and made all three of his PATs during Sunday's 30-16 win over Arizona. |
| Sam Ehlinger | Active | Ehlinger (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the emergency third quarterback in Sunday's game against the Cardinals, Aric DiLalla of the Broncos' official site reports. |
| Jonathon Cooper | Active | Cooper had his roster exemption removed by the Broncos on Saturday and is available for Sunday's road game against the Cardinals, Aric DiLalla of the Broncos' official site reports. |
| Kris Abrams-Draine | Active | Abrams-Draine recorded six tackles (four solo), three pass breakups, including an interception, and one forced fumble in Thursday night's 17-14 overtime win over the Seahawks. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
60.8°F, wind 6.7 mph, precip 0.0 mm (next 1h), cloudy
Forecast for Sun, Nov 1 at 4:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (KC): ~564 miles, 1h time-zone shift west