Sun, Nov 8 at 1:00 PM ET · Caesars Superdome
Expected score: CLE 22.1 – NO 24.1
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): CLE 2.18 · NO 1.85
Team ratings (Elo): CLE 1482.1 vs NO 1445.2. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
CLE (5-2) — 14 days rest
Last 5: 4-1 (2 straight wins)
| Oct 25, 2026 | TEN | W | 27-24 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | BAL | W | 13-10 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | NYJ | L | 12-17 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | PIT | W | 27-24 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | CAR | W | 21-18 |
NO (2-5) — 14 days rest
Last 5: 1-4 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 25, 2026 | PIT | L | 10-16 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | NYG | W | 34-27 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | MIN | L | 13-23 |
| Oct 5, 2026 | ATL | L | 24-45 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | LV | L | 27-35 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2024 | NO 35 - CLE 14 | NO |
Week 8 report — availability for Week 9 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 9.
CLE
| Tytus Howard | Questionable | Howard (concussion) didn't participate in Cleveland's practice Wednesday. |
| Mike Hall Jr. | Questionable | Hall (ankle) was a limited participant at practice Wednesday. |
| Myles Harden | Questionable | Harden (hamstring) was a limited participant at practice Wednesday. |
| Jared Verse | Questionable | Verse (knee) did not participate at practice Wednesday. |
| Daniel Thomas | Questionable | questionable |
| Elgton Jenkins | Questionable | questionable |
| Mason Graham | Questionable | questionable |
| Grant Delpit | Questionable | questionable |
| Carson Schwesinger | Questionable | Schwesinger finished Sundays' 27-24 win over the Titans with eight tackles (four solo). |
| Kalia Davis | Injured Reserve | Davis (quadriceps) will spend the rest of the 2026 season on injured reserve after his 21-day practice window expired Tuesday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports. |
| Dylan Sampson | Active | Sampson (knee) was a full participant in Thursday's practice, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports. |
| Jerry Jeudy | Active | NFL reporter Jordan Schultz reports that the Browns are currently "less likely" to trade Jeudy before the Nov. 10 deadline. |
| Ronnie Hickman | Active | Hickman registered 10 tackles (six solo) and a fumble recovery during Sundays' 27-24 win over Tennessee. |
| Quincy Williams | Active | Williams finished Sunday's 27-24 win over the Titans with 10 tackles (seven solo). |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | Active | McLaughlin turned five kickoff returns into 117 yards during the Browns' 27-24 win over the Titans on Sunday. |
| Dillon Gabriel | Active | The Browns activated Gabriel (back) from injured reserve Monday. |
| Taylen Green | Active | |
| Parker Brailsford | Active | |
| Justin Jefferson | Active | |
| Noah Igbinoghene | Active | |
| Audric Estime | Active | |
| Denzel Boston | Active | Boston caught three of eight targets for 27 yards in Sunday's 27-24 win over the Titans. |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | Active | Fannin caught six of nine targets for 91 yards in Sunday's 27-24 win over the Titans. |
| Deshaun Watson | Active | Watson completed 25 of 36 passes for 308 yards with an interception in Sunday's 27-24 win over the Titans. He added 19 yards and a touchdown on three carries. |
| KC Concepcion | Active | Concepcion caught eight of 10 targets for 129 yards and added 23 yards on three carries in Sunday's 27-24 win over Tennessee. |
NO
| Cesar Ruiz | Questionable | questionable |
| Nathan Shepherd | Questionable | questionable |
| Justin Reid | Questionable | Reid (concussion) has been ruled out for the remainder of Sunday's game against the Steelers in Paris. |
| CJ Donaldson | Questionable | Donaldson (shoulder) is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the Steelers in Paris. |
| Carl Granderson | Active | Granderson totaled four tackles, including 1.5 sacks, in Sunday's Week 7 loss to Pittsburgh. |
| Pete Werner | Active | Werner finished Sunday's loss to the Steelers with eight tackles (three solo). |
| Jonas Sanker | Active | Sanker posted nine tackles (seven solo) in Sunday's Week 7 loss to Pittsburgh. |
| Noah Fant | Active | Fant gathered in all two targets for 11 yards during Sunday's 16-10 defeat against Pittsburgh. |
| Bryce Lance | Active | Lance reeled in all two targets for 12 yards during Sunday's 16-10 loss to Pittsburgh. |
| Kendre Miller | Active | Miller rushed eight times for six yards in Sunday's 16-10 loss to the Steelers in Paris. |
| Barion Brown | Active | Brown hauled in all three targets for 57 yards during Sunday's 16-10 loss to the Steelers. |
| Mike Reid | Active | |
| Tyree Wilson | Active | |
| John Ridgeway III | Active | |
| Treyton Welch | Active | |
| Zach Wilson | Active | |
| Juwan Johnson | Active | Johnson caught one of three targets for seven yards during Sunday's 16-10 loss to the Steelers. |
| Devaughn Vele | Active | Vele caught all five of his targets for 54 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 16-10 loss to the Steelers. |
| Alvin Kamara | Active | Kamara carried the ball six times for five yards and caught all seven of his targets for 57 yards in Sunday's 16-10 loss to the Steelers. |
| Daniel Carlson | Active | Carlson went 1-for-2 on field-goal attempts and made his lone extra-point try during Sundays' 16-10 loss to the Steelers in Paris. |
| Tyler Shough | Active | Shough completed 30 of 38 passes for 278 yards and one touchdown with one interception in Sunday's 16-10 loss to the Steelers. He added seven rushing yards on three carries. |
| Chris Olave | Active | Olave caught six of 10 targets for 56 yards in Sunday's 16-10 loss to the Steelers. |
| Spencer Rattler | Active | Rattler is active and will remain the Saints' No. 2 quarterback for Sunday's game against the Steelers in Paris, Ross Jackson of WWL Louisiana reports. |
| Anfernee Jennings | Active | Jennings (knee) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Steelers. |
| Kaden Elliss | Active | Elliss (calf) doesn't carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Steelers. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
n/a — indoor venue
Travel (CLE): ~925 miles, 1h time-zone shift west