Sun, Nov 8 at 1:00 PM ET · Arrowhead Stadium
Expected score: NYJ 17.6 – KC 28.6
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): NYJ 3.51 · KC 1.4
Team ratings (Elo): NYJ 1401.2 vs KC 1496.2. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
NYJ (2-5) — 14 days rest
Last 5: 1-4 (2 straight losses)
| Oct 25, 2026 | MIA | L | 25-28 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | NE | L | 19-26 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | CLE | W | 17-12 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | CHI | L | 12-23 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | DET | L | 24-31 |
KC (5-1) — 13 days rest
Last 5: 4-1 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 25, 2026 | SEA | L | 3-20 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | LAC | W | 22-6 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | LV | W | 30-27 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | MIA | W | 24-10 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | IND | W | 33-30 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| No meetings in coverage period | ||
Week 8 report — availability for Week 9 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 9.
NYJ
| Breece Hall | Questionable | Hall (quadriceps) remained limited at Thursday's practice. |
| Joseph Ossai | Doubtful | Ossai (ankle) didn't participate in the Jets' practice Wednesday, Rich Cimini of ESPN.com reports. |
| David Bailey | Questionable | Bailey didn't practice Wednesday due to a groin injury. |
| T'Vondre Sweat | Doubtful | Sweat (knee) is week-to-week and is unlikely to suit up for Sunday's game against the Raiders, Rich Cimini of ESPN.com reported Wednesday. |
| Dylan Parham | Questionable | questionable |
| Max Mitchell | Questionable | questionable |
| Kiko Mauigoa | Injured Reserve | The Jets placed Mauigoa (quadriceps) on injured reserve Saturday, Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic reports. |
| Braelon Allen | Active | Allen (ankle) was a full participant at Thursday's practice. |
| Kene Nwangwu | Active | Nwangwu was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Garrett Wilson | Active | Wilson said Wednesday that he won't ask to be traded from the Jets, Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic reports. |
| Demario Davis | Active | Davis finished Sunday's Week 7 loss to Miami with three tackles (two solo) and one defensed pass. |
| Jamien Sherwood | Active | Sherwood totaled eight tackles (four solo) and two defensed passes Sunday in a loss to Miami. |
| Dane Belton | Active | Belton registered nine tackles (six solo) in Sunday's loss to the Dolphins. |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | Active | Fitzpatrick posted 10 tackles (six solo) Sunday in a loss to Miami. |
| Tim Patrick | Active | Patrick did not garner a target during Sunday's 28-25 loss to the Dolphins. |
| Adonai Mitchell | Active | Mitchell failed to haul in any of his three targets during the Jets' 28-25 loss to the Dolphins on Sunday. |
| Isaiah Davis | Active | Davis logged a five-yard carry and caught all three of his targets for 49 yards during Sunday's 28-25 loss to Miami. He also added a tackle on special teams. |
| Jack Heflin | Active | |
| Jarvis Brownlee Jr. | Active | |
| Kenyon Sadiq | Active | Sadiq caught his lone target for six yards in Sunday's 28-25 loss to the Dolphins. |
| Jason Sanders | Active | Sanders went 1-for-2 on field-goal tries and made both of his extra-point attempts during Sunday's 28-25 loss to Miami. |
| Mason Taylor | Active | Taylor caught all five of his targets for 62 yards and two touchdowns while adding a two-point conversion in Sunday's 28-25 loss to the Dolphins. |
| Geno Smith | Active | Smith completed 23 of 30 passes for 287 yards, three touchdowns and one interception in Sunday's 28-25 loss to the Dolphins. He also rushed twice for no gain and threw a successful two-point conversion. |
| Omar Cooper Jr. | Active | Cooper caught all five of his targets for 115 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 28-25 loss to the Dolphins. |
| Will McDonald IV | Active |
KC
| Mansoor Delane | Questionable | Delane (shoulder) did not practice Thursday. |
| Rashee Rice | Questionable | Rice (hamstring/knee) remained a limited participant at Thursday's practice. |
| Travis Kelce | Questionable | Kelce (ankle) was listed as a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Jaylon Moore | Questionable | Moore (concussion) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Omarr Norman-Lott | Out | The Chiefs designated Norman-Lott (knee) to return from injured reserve Wednesday. |
| L'Jarius Sneed | Questionable | questionable |
| Brashard Smith | Injured Reserve | The Chiefs placed Smith (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday. |
| Cyrus Allen | Active | Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said Wednesday that Allen will "get a little bit more [snaps]" during Sunday's game against the Broncos, Nate Taylor of ESPN.com reports. |
| Harrison Butker | Active | Head coach Andy Reid said Wednesday that Butker will "probably" serve as the Chiefs' kicker in Sunday's game against the Broncos, Sam McDowell of The Kansas City Star reports. |
| Chamarri Conner | Active | Conner finished Sunday's 20-3 loss to Seattle with seven tackles (two solo). |
| Nohl Williams | Active | Williams finished Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks with 10 tackles (four solo) and one interception. |
| Nick Bolton | Active | Bolton registered 11 tackles (six solo) during the Chiefs' 20-3 loss to the Seahawks on Sunday. |
| Drue Tranquill | Active | Tranquill finished Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks with 12 tackles (four solo). |
| Andrew Armstrong | Active | Armstrong caught one of two targets for three yards during Sunday night's 20-3 loss to Seattle. |
| Noah Gray | Active | Gray caught three passes on as many targets for 44 yards during Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks. |
| Emmett Johnson | Active | Johnson caught two of three passes for 17 yards and returned three kickoffs for 81 yards during Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks. He also added two tackles on special teams. |
| Ben VanSumeren | Active | |
| Jack Pyburn | Active | |
| Jadon Canady | Active | |
| Xavier Worthy | Active | Worthy caught three of six targets for 11 yards in Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks. |
| Patrick Mahomes | Active | Mahomes completed 19 of 33 passes for 165 yards, no touchdowns and one interception in Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks. He added two rushing attempts for 14 yards. |
| Kenneth Walker III | Active | Walker rushed 14 times for 36 yards while catching four of five targets for 21 yards in Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks. |
| Garrett Nussmeier | Active | Nussmeier (coach's decision) is inactive as the emergency third quarterback for Sunday night's game against the Seahawks. |
| Cooper McDonald | Active | The Chiefs activated McDonald (knee) from injured reserve Saturday. |
| Jaydn Ott | Active | The Chiefs signed Ott from the practice squad to the active roster Saturday. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
42.6°F, wind 4.9 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 AM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (NYJ): ~1,086 miles, 1h time-zone shift west