Sun, Nov 8 at 4:05 PM ET · SoFi Stadium
Expected score: HOU 22.6 – LAC 23.6
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): HOU 2.1 · LAC 1.91
Team ratings (Elo): HOU 1523.4 vs LAC 1474.2. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
HOU (2-5) — 14 days rest
Last 5: 2-3 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 25, 2026 | NYG | L | 21-27 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | JAX | W | 34-31 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | TEN | W | 26-3 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | DAL | L | 30-34 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | IND | L | 17-19 |
LAC (0-6) — 21 days rest
Last 5: 0-5 (5 straight losses)
| Oct 18, 2026 | KC | L | 6-22 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | DEN | L | 17-23 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | SEA | L | 23-30 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | BUF | L | 16-24 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | LV | L | 14-26 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | LAC 16 - HOU 20 | HOU |
Week 8 report — availability for Week 9 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 9.
HOU
| Jaylin Noel | Injured Reserve | Noel, who was placed on injured reserve earlier Wednesday, is expected to require surgery to address his toe injury and will miss the remainder of the season, Jonathan M. Alexander of the Houston Chronicle reports. |
| Jalen Pitre | Questionable | questionable |
| David Montgomery | Questionable | questionable |
| Reed Blankenship | Questionable | questionable |
| Blake Fisher | Questionable | questionable |
| Azeez Al-Shaair | Active | Al-Shaair recorded nine tackles (two solo) in a Week 7 overtime loss to the Giants on Sunday. |
| Henry To'oTo'o | Active | To'oTo'o notched 10 tackles (three solo), including 0.5 sacks, in Sunday's Week 7 overtime loss to the Giants. |
| M.J. Stewart | Active | Stewart finished with 12 tackles (five solo), including 0.5 sacks, and a defensed pass in Sunday's overtime loss to the Giants. |
| Foster Moreau | Active | Moreau played 21 offensive snaps and nine special-teams snaps in the Texans' 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants on Sunday. |
| Dare Ogunbowale | Active | Ogunbowale didn't record an offensive touch or target in Sunday's 24-21 overtime loss to the Giants. |
| Tank Dell | Active | Dell caught his only target for 43 yards and added a two-yard rush during Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants. |
| Kayshon Boutte | Active | Boutte caught one of two targets for 25 yards during Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss versus the Giants. |
| Marlin Klein | Active | |
| Febechi Nwaiwu | Active | |
| Nate Thomas | Active | |
| Dalton Schultz | Active | Schultz caught five of six targets for 45 yards in Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants. |
| Xavier Hutchinson | Active | Hutchinson caught three of six targets for 17 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants. He added 12 rushing yards on two attempts. |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | Active | Fairbairn went 2-for-2 on field-goal attempts and converted his only PAT in Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants. |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | Active | Harrison caught one of four targets for a six-yard touchdown in Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants. |
| C.J. Stroud | Active | Stroud completed 17 of 28 passes for 153 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants. He added two rushing attempts for four yards and threw a successful two-point conversion. |
| Woody Marks | Active | Marks rushed 19 times for 66 yards and caught his only target for 15 yards in Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants. |
| Nico Collins | Active | Collins caught two of five targets for six yards in Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants. |
| Brevin Jordan | Active | Jordan (foot) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Giants, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports. |
| Logan Hall | Active | |
| Jadeveon Clowney | Active |
LAC
| Brenen Thompson | Questionable | Thompson (quadriceps/hamstring) did not practice Thursday. |
| Donte Jackson | Questionable | Jackson (hamstring) was limited in Thursday's practice. |
| Tre' Harris | Questionable | Harris (hamstring) remained limited in Thursday's practice. |
| Ladd McConkey | Questionable | McConkey (concussion) was a full participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Denzel Perryman | Injured Reserve | Head coach Jim Harbaugh said Wednesday that Perryman (undisclosed) is "close" to returning from injured reserve, Alex Insdorf of BoltBeat.com reports. |
| Deane Leonard | Questionable | Leonard (concussion) did not participate in Wednesday's practice, Alex Insdorf of BoltBeat.com reports. |
| Derwin James Jr. | Doubtful | James (hamstring) suffered a setback in his recovery and will likely miss Sunday's game against the Rams, Eric Smith of the Chargers' official site reports. |
| Rodney Shelley | Questionable | questionable |
| Kayode Awosika | Questionable | questionable |
| Bud Dupree | Active | Dupree (neck) is off the Chargers' injury report ahead of the team's matchup versus the Rams on Sunday. |
| Joe Alt | Active | Alt (neck) was not listed on the Chargers' official injury report Wednesday. |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith | Active | Lambert-Smith caught five of nine targets for 32 yards during Sunday's 22-6 loss at Kansas City. He also lost a fumble. |
| Cameron Dicker | Active | Dicker made both of his field-goal attempts in the Chargers' 22-6 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday. |
| Charlie Kolar | Active | Kolar caught three of six targets for 20 yards during the Chargers' 22-6 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday. |
| Kimani Vidal | Active | Vidal turned seven carries into 21 yards and caught three of four passes for 19 yards during the Chargers' 22-6 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday. |
| Keaton Mitchell | Active | Mitchell turned two carries into four yards, failed to haul in his lone target and returned four kickoffs for 87 yards during Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs. |
| Quentin Johnston | Active | Johnston caught one of three targets for 57 yards in Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs. |
| Justin Herbert | Active | Herbert completed 22 of 37 passes for 204 yards, no touchdowns and one interception in Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs. He also rushed five times for 26 yards. |
| Omarion Hampton | Active | Hampton rushed seven times for 18 yards and caught all four of his targets for 21 yards in Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs. |
| Daiyan Henley | Active | Henley (knee) is active for Sunday's game against the Chiefs. |
| Jamaree Caldwell | Active | |
| Dalvin Tomlinson | Active | |
| Kendall Williamson | Active | |
| Elijah Molden | Active | |
| Justin Eboigbe | Active |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
51.3°F, wind 2.7 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 AM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (HOU): ~1,375 miles, 2h time-zone shift west