Sun, Nov 8 at 8:20 PM ET · Soldier Field
Expected score: TB 17.4 – CHI 28.8
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): TB 3.6 · CHI 1.39
Team ratings (Elo): TB 1457.9 vs CHI 1558.7. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
TB (2-5) — 14 days rest
Last 5: 2-3 (1 straight win)
| Oct 25, 2026 | CAR | W | 43-13 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | PIT | L | 19-26 |
| Oct 8, 2026 | DAL | W | 24-16 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | GB | L | 14-17 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | MIN | L | 16-23 |
CHI (5-2) — 17 days rest
Last 5: 4-1 (2 straight wins)
| Oct 22, 2026 | NE | W | 30-24 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | ATL | W | 31-23 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | GB | L | 7-31 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | NYJ | W | 23-12 |
| Sep 28, 2026 | PHI | W | 27-7 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| No meetings in coverage period | ||
Week 8 report — availability for Week 9 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 9.
TB
| Luke Goedeke | Questionable | Goedeke (calf) did not participate at the Buccaneers' practice Thursday. |
| Emeka Egbuka | Questionable | Egbuka (concussion) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Kenny Gainwell | Questionable | Gainwell (hip) was a limited participant at Thursday's practice, Scott Smith of the Buccaneers' official site reports. |
| Josh Hayes | Injured Reserve | Hayes suffered a small setback in his recovery from a knee injury, Greg Auman of Fox Sports reports. |
| Christian Rozeboom | Injured Reserve | Rozeboom (finger) was placed on injured reserve by the Buccaneers on Thursday, Scott Smith of the team's official website reports. |
| Josiah Trotter | Active | Trotter (illness) was a full participant at the Buccaneers' practice Thursday. |
| Yaya Diaby | Active | |
| Antoine Winfield Jr. | Active | Winfield (ribs) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers' official site reports. |
| Baker Mayfield | Active | Mayfield, who was a full practice participant Wednesday, said that he's still taking a day-by-day approach when it comes to wearing a glove to protect his dislocated right thumb, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers' official site reports. |
| Tykee Smith | Active | Smith posted seven tackles (one solo), an interception and a blocked extra-point attempt Sunday in a 43-13 Week 7 win against Carolina. |
| Ted Hurst III | Active | Hurst didn't record a catch on one target in Sunday's 43-13 win over the Panthers. |
| Jalon Daniels | Active | Daniels was back in his primary reserve role behind Baker Mayfield in Sunday's 43-13 win over the Panthers. |
| Billy Schrauth | Active | |
| DeMonte Capehart | Active | |
| Ayden Garnes | Active | |
| Cade Otton | Active | Otton failed to catch his only target during Sunday's 43-13 win over the Panthers. |
| Sean Tucker | Active | Tucker rushed seven times for 52 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 43-13 win against Carolina. |
| Tez Johnson | Active | Johnson caught both of his targets for 33 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 43-13 win over the Panthers. |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | Active | Godwin secured four of five targets for 27 yards in the Buccaneers' 43-13 win over the Panthers on Sunday. |
| Chase McLaughlin | Active | McLaughlin made both of his field-goal tries while going 5-for-5 on PATs during Sunday's 43-13 win over the Panthers. |
| Bucky Irving | Active | Irving rushed 24 times for 106 yards and two touchdowns while bringing in one of two targets for four yards in the Buccaneers' 43-13 win over the Panthers on Sunday. He also committed a fumble that stayed with Tampa Bay. |
| Zyon McCollum | Active | McCollum (illness) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Panthers, Greg Auman of Fox Sports reports. |
| David Sills V | Active | Sills (hamstring) was activated from injured reserve by the Buccaneers on Thursday, Scott Smith of the team's official website reports. |
| Calijah Kancey | Active | |
| Benjamin Morrison | Active | Morrison (quadriceps) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
CHI
| Anthony Johnson Jr. | Out | out |
| Kyle Monangai | Questionable | Monangai (thumb/toe) did not practice Thursday. |
| D'Marco Jackson | Questionable | questionable |
| Coby Bryant | Injured Reserve | Coach Ben Johnson said Wednesday that Bryant (knee) will start running again in the "near future," Courtney Cronin of ESPN.com reports. |
| Jack Sanborn | Questionable | questionable |
| Cole Kmet | Injured Reserve | The Bears placed Kmet (knee) on injured reserve Friday. |
| Malik Muhammad II | Questionable | Muhammad (toe) is doubtful to return to Thursday night's contest against the Patriots. |
| T.J. Edwards | Active | Edwards (hamstring) was considered to be a full participant on the Bears' estimated practice report Thursday. |
| Jeffery Simmons | Active | Simmons was traded to the Bears on Thursday, along with a 2028 fifth-round pick, in exchange for first-round picks in 2027 and 2028, as well as a 2027 fourth-round pick, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports. |
| Zavier Scott | Active | Chicago signed Scott from the practice squad to the active roster Tuesday. |
| Jayden Loving | Active | |
| Jordan McFadden | Active | |
| Case Keenum | Active | |
| Kyler Gordon | Active | Gordon recorded five tackles (three solo), including 1.0 sacks, in Thursday's 30-24 win over the Patriots. |
| Dillon Thieneman | Active | Thieneman tallied eight tackles (three solo), including 0.5 sacks, in a 30-24 victory versus the Patriots on Thursday. |
| Sam Roush | Active | Roush is expected to get more work on offense after Cole Kmet (knee) landed on injured reserve Friday. |
| Kalif Raymond | Active | Raymond did not catch either of his two targets and returned one punt for seven yards Thursday in a 30-24 win over New England. |
| Roschon Johnson | Active | Johnson rushed twice for 13 yards in the Bears' 30-24 victory over the Patriots on Thursday. |
| Montez Sweat | Active | The NFL reinstated Sweat on Friday after he served a two-game suspension for violating the league's performance-enhancing substances policy. |
| Rome Odunze | Active | Odunze brought in four of five targets for 69 yards in the Bears' 30-24 win over the Patriots on Thursday. |
| Colston Loveland | Active | Loveland secured seven of 12 targets for 69 yards and a touchdown during the Bears' 30-24 win over the Patriots on Thursday. |
| Cairo Santos | Active | Santos went 3-for-4 on field-goal tries and made all three of his extra-point attempts in Thursday's 30-24 win over New England. |
| D'Andre Swift | Active | Swift rushed 22 times for 78 yards and a touchdown and brought in all four targets for 12 yards in the Bears' 30-24 win over the Patriots on Thursday. |
| Luther Burden III | Active | Burden brought in all four targets for 130 yards and a touchdown and rushed once for seven yards in the Bears' 30-24 win over the Patriots on Thursday. |
| Caleb Williams | Active | Williams completed 22 of 33 passes for 308 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions while rushing five times for 18 yards in the Bears' 30-24 win over the Patriots on Thursday. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
44.6°F, wind 4.7 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 AM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (TB): ~1,007 miles, 1h time-zone shift west