Thu, Nov 12 at 8:15 PM ET · MetLife Stadium
Expected score: WSH 20.0 – NYG 26.2
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): WSH 2.68 · NYG 1.6
Team ratings (Elo): WSH 1428.6 vs NYG 1453.6. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
WSH (1-4-1) — 24 days rest
Last 5: 1-3-1 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 19, 2026 | SF | L | 17-23 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | NYG | T | 27-27 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | IND | L | 13-30 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | SEA | W | 33-31 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | DAL | L | 20-37 |
NYG (4-2-1) — 18 days rest
Last 5: 3-1-1 (1 straight win)
| Oct 25, 2026 | HOU | W | 27-21 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | NO | L | 27-34 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | WSH | T | 27-27 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | ARI | W | 36-24 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | TEN | W | 12-7 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2024 | WSH 21 - NYG 18 | WSH |
| Nov 3, 2024 | NYG 22 - WSH 27 | WSH |
| Sep 7, 2025 | WSH 21 - NYG 6 | WSH |
| Dec 14, 2025 | NYG 21 - WSH 29 | WSH |
| Oct 11, 2026 | WSH 27 - NYG 27 | tie |
Week 8 report — availability for Week 10 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 10.
WSH
| Treylon Burks | Questionable | Burks (foot) didn't practice Thursday. |
| Nick Allegretti | Questionable | questionable |
| John Bates | Questionable | Bates was a non-participant in Thursday's practice due to a shoulder injury. |
| Laremy Tunsil | Injured Reserve | Tunsil (triceps) could potentially return late in the season, Nicki Jhabvala of The Athletic reports. |
| Javon Kinlaw | Doubtful | Head coach Dan Quinn said Wednesday that Kinlaw (knee) is "unlikely" to play against the Eagles on Sunday, Zach Selby of the Commanders' official site reports. |
| Jer'Zhan Newton | Injured Reserve | The Commanders designated Newton (pectoral) for return to practice from their injured reserve list Wednesday. |
| Terry McLaurin | Injured Reserve | The Commanders placed McLaurin (knee) on injured reserve Wednesday, Zach Selby of the team's official site reports. |
| Jaylin Lane | Injured Reserve | Lane underwent surgery Oct. 9 to repair his fractured and dislocated ankle, and he is expected to be cleared for activities before OTAs, Tashan Reed of The Washington Post reports. |
| Charles Omenihu | Questionable | questionable |
| Stefon Diggs | Active | Diggs (hand/hamstring) was a full practice participant Thursday. |
| Van Jefferson | Active | The Commanders signed Jefferson to the active roster Wednesday, Zach Selby of the team's official site reports. |
| Marcus Mariota | Active | Mariota (knee) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Antonio Williams | Active | Coach Dan Quinn noted Monday that with Terry McLaurin (knee) out for the season, Stefon Diggs' workload isn't expected to change much, however others, notably Williams, should see added opportunities in McLaurin's looming absence, Nicki Jhabvala of The Athletic reports. |
| Sonny Styles | Active | Styles finished Monday's 23-17 loss to the 49ers with 13 tackles (seven solo) and one pass defense. |
| Drew Stevens | Active | Stevens made his only field-goal try and converted both of his extra-point attempts during Monday's 23-17 loss at San Francisco. |
| Austin Ekeler | Active | Ekeler logged a three-yard carry and caught both of his targets for four yards during the Commanders' 23-17 loss to the 49ers on Monday. |
| Dyami Brown | Active | Brown hauled in his only target for six yards during Monday's 23-17 loss versus San Francisco. |
| Jeremy McNichols | Active | McNichols accrued five rushes for 13 yards during Monday's 23-17 loss to the 49ers. |
| T.J. Maguranyanga | Active | |
| Isaac Yiadom | Active | |
| Tanoa Togiai | Active | |
| Fabian Moreau | Active | |
| Chig Okonkwo | Active | Okonkwo brought in all seven targets for 69 yards in the Commanders' 23-17 loss to the 49ers on Monday night. |
| Rachaad White | Active | White rushed seven times for 27 yards and brought in four of five targets for 30 yards and a touchdown in the Commanders' 23-17 loss to the 49ers on Monday night. |
| Jayden Daniels | Active | Daniels completed 29 of 40 passes for 300 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions while adding four rushes for 10 yards in the Commanders' 23-17 loss to the 49ers on Monday night. |
NYG
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | Injured Reserve | The Giants placed Tracy (hamstring) on injured reserve Tuesday, Dan Salomone of the team's official site reports. |
| Theo Johnson | Questionable | questionable |
| Marcus Mbow | Questionable | questionable |
| Greg Newsome II | Questionable | questionable |
| Jevon Holland | Questionable | questionable |
| Cam Skattebo | Questionable | Skattebo is expected to "OK" after tweaking his hamstring on a 42-yard run in overtime during Sunday's 27-21 win over the Texans, Mike Garafolo of NFL Network reports. |
| Tremaine Edmunds | Injured Reserve | Edmunds (chest) was placed on injured reserve Saturday, Dan Duggan of The Athletic reports. |
| Devin Singletary | Active | Singletary is expected to handle a bigger role out of the Giants' backfield after Tyrone Tracy (hamstring) was placed on injured reserve Tuesday, Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com reports. |
| Arvell Reese | Active | Reese posted seven tackles (five solo), including 0.5 sacks, in Sunday's 27-21 overtime victory against the Texans. |
| Micah McFadden | Active | McFadden notched 10 tackles (all solo) in Sunday's 27-21 overtime win against the Texans. |
| Greg Desrosiers Jr. | Active | The Giants signed Desrosiers off the Chargers' practice squad Tuesday, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports. |
| Darnell Mooney | Active | Mooney caught one of three targets for four yards and rushed once for three yards during Sunday's 27-21 overtime win against the Texans. |
| Jameis Winston | Active | Winston turned four carries into four yards and a touchdown during the Giants' 27-21 overtime win over the Texans on Sunday. |
| Dominic Zvada | Active | Head coach John Harbaugh reiterated Monday that he's confident in Zvada and said that the Giants have no plans to work out other kickers, Pat Leonard of the New York Daily News reports. |
| Nikko Reed | Active | |
| Josh Sills | Active | |
| Jake Haener | Active | |
| Isaiah Likely | Active | Likely caught two of four targets for 12 yards in Sunday's 27-21 overtime win over the Texans. |
| Malachi Fields | Active | Fields caught four of five targets for 83 yards in Sunday's 27-21 overtime win over Houston. |
| J.J. McCarthy | Active | McCarthy completed 20 of 28 passes for 252 yards and no touchdowns or interceptions in Sunday's 27-21 overtime win over the Texans. He added one yard on his only carry. |
| Malik Nabers | Active | Nabers caught seven of nine targets for 111 yards in Sunday's 27-21 overtime win over the Texans. |
| Jermaine Eluemunor | Active | Eluemunor (calf) is active Week 7 against the Texans, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports. |
| Tyler Nubin | Active | Nubin (neck) is active Week 7 against the Texans, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports. |
| Paulson Adebo | Active | Adebo (knee) is active Week 7 against the Texans, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports. |
| Andrew Thomas | Active | Thomas (groin) does not have an injury designation against the Texans on Sunday. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
37.8°F, wind 8.7 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 AM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (WSH): ~198 miles, no time-zone change