Sun, Nov 15 at 1:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium
Expected score: BUF 27.4 – NYJ 18.8
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): BUF 1.49 · NYJ 3.04
Team ratings (Elo): BUF 1590.2 vs NYJ 1401.2. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
BUF (5-1) — 27 days rest
Last 5: 4-1 (2 straight wins)
| Oct 18, 2026 | LV | W | 33-30 |
| Oct 12, 2026 | LAR | W | 37-34 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | NE | L | 26-29 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | LAC | W | 24-16 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | DET | W | 41-31 |
NYJ (2-5) — 21 days rest
Last 5: 1-4 (2 straight losses)
| Oct 25, 2026 | MIA | L | 25-28 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | NE | L | 19-26 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | CLE | W | 17-12 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | CHI | L | 12-23 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | DET | L | 24-31 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2024 | NYJ 20 - BUF 23 | BUF |
| Dec 29, 2024 | BUF 40 - NYJ 14 | BUF |
| Sep 14, 2025 | NYJ 10 - BUF 30 | BUF |
| Jan 4, 2026 | BUF 35 - NYJ 8 | BUF |
Week 8 report — availability for Week 10 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 10.
BUF
| Dalton Kincaid | Questionable | Kincaid (chest) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| DJ Moore | Questionable | Moore (shoulder) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Joe Andreessen | Questionable | questionable |
| Ray Davis | Questionable | Davis didn't participate in Thursday's practice due to an illness, Matt Parrino of The Syracuse Post-Standard reports. |
| Tyrell Shavers | Out | The Bills designated Shavers (knee) to return from the reserve/PUP list Wednesday, but he will not play against the Ravens on Sunday, Cameron Wolfe of NFL Network reports. |
| TJ Parker | Questionable | questionable |
| Bradley Chubb | Questionable | questionable |
| Dee Alford | Questionable | questionable |
| Spencer Brown | Questionable | questionable |
| C.J. Gardner-Johnson | Suspension | reserve-sus |
| Ed Oliver | Active | Oliver (knee) was a full participant at the Bills' practice Thursday. |
| T.J. Sanders | Active | |
| Sam Franklin Jr. | Active | The NFL reduced Franklin's discipline from a one-game suspension to a fine of $14,926, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports. |
| Dorian Williams | Active | Williams logged five tackles (three solo) and one pass defensed for an interception in the Bills' 33-30 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Davison Igbinosun | Active | Defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard praised Igbinosun's play earlier this week and plans to keep giving the rookie a good amount of playing time, Alec White of the Bills' official site reports. Said Leonard, "I think what he's done the last couple weeks, he's definitely earned a high majority of the snaps at the corner position. I know what I'm getting, play in and play out." |
| Dawson Knox | Active | Knox caught his only target for no gain during Sunday's 33-30 win at Las Vegas. |
| Tyler Bass | Active | Bass converted all four of his field-goal attempts and all three of his extra-point tries during Buffalo's win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Ty Johnson | Active | Johnson logged a three-yard carry and caught both of his targets for 24 yards during the Bills' 33-30 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Joshua Palmer | Active | Palmer caught one of two targets for 37 yards during Buffalo's 33-30 win over Las Vegas on Sunday. |
| Mike Danna | Active | |
| Jude Bowry | Active | |
| Ar'maj Reed-Adams | Active | |
| Keon Coleman | Active | Coleman brought in four of six targets for 59 yards and a touchdown in the Bills' 33-30 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Khalil Shakir | Active | Shakir brought in four of six targets for 34 yards and a touchdown in the Bills' 33-30 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Josh Allen | Active | Allen completed 23 of 33 passes for 255 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions and rushed five times for one yard in the Bills' 33-30 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
NYJ
| Breece Hall | Questionable | Hall (quadriceps) remained limited at Thursday's practice. |
| Joseph Ossai | Doubtful | Ossai (ankle) didn't participate in the Jets' practice Wednesday, Rich Cimini of ESPN.com reports. |
| David Bailey | Questionable | Bailey didn't practice Wednesday due to a groin injury. |
| T'Vondre Sweat | Doubtful | Sweat (knee) is week-to-week and is unlikely to suit up for Sunday's game against the Raiders, Rich Cimini of ESPN.com reported Wednesday. |
| Dylan Parham | Questionable | questionable |
| Max Mitchell | Questionable | questionable |
| Kiko Mauigoa | Injured Reserve | The Jets placed Mauigoa (quadriceps) on injured reserve Saturday, Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic reports. |
| Braelon Allen | Active | Allen (ankle) was a full participant at Thursday's practice. |
| Kene Nwangwu | Active | Nwangwu was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Garrett Wilson | Active | Wilson said Wednesday that he won't ask to be traded from the Jets, Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic reports. |
| Demario Davis | Active | Davis finished Sunday's Week 7 loss to Miami with three tackles (two solo) and one defensed pass. |
| Jamien Sherwood | Active | Sherwood totaled eight tackles (four solo) and two defensed passes Sunday in a loss to Miami. |
| Dane Belton | Active | Belton registered nine tackles (six solo) in Sunday's loss to the Dolphins. |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | Active | Fitzpatrick posted 10 tackles (six solo) Sunday in a loss to Miami. |
| Tim Patrick | Active | Patrick did not garner a target during Sunday's 28-25 loss to the Dolphins. |
| Adonai Mitchell | Active | Mitchell failed to haul in any of his three targets during the Jets' 28-25 loss to the Dolphins on Sunday. |
| Isaiah Davis | Active | Davis logged a five-yard carry and caught all three of his targets for 49 yards during Sunday's 28-25 loss to Miami. He also added a tackle on special teams. |
| Jack Heflin | Active | |
| Jarvis Brownlee Jr. | Active | |
| Kenyon Sadiq | Active | Sadiq caught his lone target for six yards in Sunday's 28-25 loss to the Dolphins. |
| Jason Sanders | Active | Sanders went 1-for-2 on field-goal tries and made both of his extra-point attempts during Sunday's 28-25 loss to Miami. |
| Mason Taylor | Active | Taylor caught all five of his targets for 62 yards and two touchdowns while adding a two-point conversion in Sunday's 28-25 loss to the Dolphins. |
| Geno Smith | Active | Smith completed 23 of 30 passes for 287 yards, three touchdowns and one interception in Sunday's 28-25 loss to the Dolphins. He also rushed twice for no gain and threw a successful two-point conversion. |
| Omar Cooper Jr. | Active | Cooper caught all five of his targets for 115 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 28-25 loss to the Dolphins. |
| Will McDonald IV | Active |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
37.8°F, wind 8.7 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 AM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (BUF): ~278 miles, no time-zone change