Sun, Nov 15 at 4:25 PM ET · AT&T Stadium
Expected score: SF 25.1 – DAL 21.1
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): SF 1.72 · DAL 2.38
Team ratings (Elo): SF 1596.3 vs DAL 1474.8. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
SF (6-1) — 21 days rest
Last 5: 4-1 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 25, 2026 | ATL | L | 20-29 |
| Oct 19, 2026 | WSH | W | 23-17 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | SEA | W | 32-29 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | DEN | W | 24-14 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | ARI | W | 36-30 |
DAL (3-4) — 19 days rest
Last 5: 2-3 (1 straight win)
| Oct 26, 2026 | PHI | W | 38-21 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | GB | L | 13-23 |
| Oct 8, 2026 | TB | L | 16-24 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | HOU | W | 34-30 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | BAL | L | 31-34 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2024 | SF 30 - DAL 24 | SF |
Week 8 report — availability for Week 10 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 10.
SF
| Marques Sigle | Questionable | questionable |
| Garret Wallow | Questionable | questionable |
| Luke Gifford | Questionable | questionable |
| Upton Stout | Questionable | Stout (shoulder) was only active as an emergency depth option during Sunday's loss to the Falcons, David Lombardi of SFStandard.com reported Monday. |
| Nick Bosa | Questionable | San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan said Monday that Bosa (knee) "has a chance" to return to action Nov. 8 versus the Raiders following a Week 8 bye, David Lombardi of SFStandard.com reports. |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | Questionable | Samuel (hamstring) has a chance to return following the 49ers' Week 8 bye, Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area reports. |
| Demarcus Robinson | Injured Reserve | 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan reiterated Monday that Robinson (ankle) has a chance to return following the team's Week 8 bye, David Lombardi of SFStandard.com reports. |
| De'Zhaun Stribling | Injured Reserve | Stribling (ankle) remains on track to return in December, David Lombardi of SFStandard.com reports. |
| Mike Evans | Questionable | Evans (Achilles) is expected to return after San Francisco's Week 8 bye, David Lombardi of SF Standard reports. |
| Christian McCaffrey | Questionable | McCaffrey is dealing with a mild hamstring strain rather than a quadriceps injury, and the 49ers believe he'll be ready following the team's Week 8 bye, David Lombardi of SF Standard reports. |
| Dre Greenlaw | Active | Greenlaw posted 12 tackles (four solo) in Sunday's loss to the Falcons. |
| Fred Warner | Active | Warner recorded 13 tackles (six solo) Sunday in a Week 7 loss to Atlanta. |
| Christian Kirk | Active | Kirk played 20 snaps on offense but didn't show up in the box score otherwise during Sunday's 29-20 loss to Atlanta. |
| Brandin Cooks | Active | Cooks caught one of three targets for 13 yards during Sunday's 29-20 loss to Atlanta. |
| Jacob Cowing | Active | Cowing caught three of five passes for 38 yards, added a 10-yard carry and returned one kickoff for 28 yards during Sunday's 29-20 loss to the Falcons. |
| Jordan James | Active | James logged a six-yard carry, turned his lone target into an 11-yard catch and registered 119 yards on four kickoff returns during the 49ers' 29-20 loss to the Falcons on Sunday. |
| Kurtis Rourke | Active | |
| Brock Purdy | Active | Purdy completed 27 of 40 passes for 288 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions and added two carries for five yards in the 49ers' 29-20 loss to the Falcons on Sunday. |
| Kyle Juszczyk | Active | Juszczyk caught all three of his targets for 11 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 29-20 loss to Atlanta. |
| Eddy Pineiro | Active | Pineiro did not attempt a field goal while going 2-for-3 on PATs in Sunday's 26-20 loss to the Falcons. |
| Jordan Watkins | Active | Watkins brought in three of six targets for 56 yards in the 49ers' 29-20 loss to the Falcons on Sunday. |
| Kaelon Black | Active | Black rushed 12 times for 63 yards and a touchdown and brought in one of three targets for minus-4 yards in the 49ers' 29-20 loss to the Falcons on Sunday. He also lost a fumble and returned one kickoff for 34 yards. |
| George Kittle | Active | Kittle brought in eight of 10 targets for 88 yards and lost a fumble in the 49ers' 29-20 loss to the Falcons on Sunday. |
| Siran Neal | Active | |
| Mykel Williams | Active | Williams (knee) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Falcons. |
DAL
| Quinnen Williams | Questionable | Williams (hamstring) practiced in a limited fashion Thursday, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports. |
| Caleb Downs | Questionable | Downs (ankle) was a limited practice participant Thursday, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports. |
| Dee Winters | Questionable | Winters (calf) didn't practice Thursday, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports. |
| KaVontae Turpin | Questionable | Turpin (ribs) was a non-participant in practice Thursday, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports. |
| Jonathan Bullard | Injured Reserve | Bullard (calf) was designated to return from injured reserve by the Cowboys on Thursday. |
| George Pickens | Questionable | Pickens (shoulder/hamstring) was a limited participant at Thursday's practice, Jon Machota of The Athletic reports. |
| Luke Schoonmaker | Questionable | questionable |
| Drew Shelton | Questionable | questionable |
| P.J. Locke | Injured Reserve | Locke (foot) has been downgraded from questionable to out for Monday's game against the Eagles. |
| Marist Liufau | Injured Reserve | Liufau (forearm) has been downgraded from questionable to out ahead of Monday night's game against the Eagles. |
| Brandon Aubrey | Active | Aubrey made all three of his field-goal attempts and all three PAT tries in Monday's 38-21 win over the Eagles. |
| DeMarvion Overshown | Active | Overshown posted six tackles (five solo) and two pass defenses (including one interception) during the Cowboys' 38-21 win over the Eagles on Monday. |
| Jake Ferguson | Active | Ferguson failed to haul in his lone target during Monday's 38-21 win over the Eagles. |
| Tyler Goodson | Active | Goodson turned 10 carries into 38 yards and returned two kickoffs for 42 yards during the Cowboys' 38-21 win over the Eagles on Monday. |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | Active | Spann-Ford finished with two catches for 11 yards on two targets in Monday's 38-21 win over the Eagles. |
| Tyrus Wheat | Active | |
| Ryan Flournoy | Active | Flournoy secured all four targets for 70 yards in the Cowboys' 38-21 win over the Eagles on Monday night. |
| Javonte Williams | Active | Williams rushed 25 times for 155 yards and a touchdown in the Cowboys' 38-21 win over the Eagles on Monday night. |
| Dak Prescott | Active | Prescott completed 15 of 27 passes for 212 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions while adding two rushes for eight yards in the Cowboys' 38-21 win over the Eagles on Monday night. He also had a two-point conversion run. |
| CeeDee Lamb | Active | Lamb brought in five of 12 targets for 74 yards and two touchdowns in the Cowboys' 38-21 win over the Eagles on Monday night. |
| Cobie Durant | Active | Durant (hamstring) does not have an injury designation for Monday's game against Philadelphia, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports. |
| Broderick Jones | Active | |
| Tyler Guyton | Active | |
| Juanyeh Thomas | Active | Thomas was signed to the Cowboys' active roster Tuesday. |
| James Houston | Active |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
n/a — indoor venue
Travel (SF): ~1,438 miles, 2h time-zone shift east