Sun, Nov 15 at 8:20 PM ET · Paycor Stadium
Expected score: PIT 22.6 – CIN 23.6
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): PIT 2.08 · CIN 1.93
Team ratings (Elo): PIT 1537.9 vs CIN 1486.4. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
PIT (5-2) — 21 days rest
Last 5: 4-1 (3 straight wins)
| Oct 25, 2026 | NO | W | 16-10 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | TB | W | 26-19 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | IND | W | 34-22 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | CLE | L | 24-27 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | CIN | W | 30-27 |
CIN (4-2) — 21 days rest
Last 5: 3-2 (2 straight wins)
| Oct 25, 2026 | BAL | W | 35-13 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | MIA | W | 31-24 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | JAX | L | 17-22 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | PIT | L | 27-30 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | HOU | W | 20-6 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2024 | CIN 38 - PIT 44 | PIT |
| Jan 4, 2025 | PIT 17 - CIN 19 | CIN |
| Oct 16, 2025 | CIN 33 - PIT 31 | CIN |
| Nov 16, 2025 | PIT 34 - CIN 12 | PIT |
| Sep 27, 2026 | PIT 30 - CIN 27 | PIT |
Week 8 report — availability for Week 10 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 10.
PIT
| Ben Skowronek | Questionable | Skowronek (calf) practiced in a limited capacity Thursday, Teresa Varley of the Steelers' official site reports. |
| Alex Highsmith | Questionable | questionable |
| Doneiko Slaughter | Questionable | questionable |
| Brandin Echols | Questionable | questionable |
| Sebastian Joseph-Day | Injured Reserve | Joseph-Day (triceps) was placed on injured reserve by the Steelers on Thursday, Teresa Varley of the team's official website reports. |
| Jalen Ramsey | Active | |
| Payton Wilson | Active | Wilson totaled six tackles (three solo) and an interception during Pittsburgh's win over the Saints on Sunday. |
| Patrick Queen | Active | Queen compiled 10 tackles (seven solo), including 1.0 sacks, during Pittsburgh's win over the Saints on Sunday. |
| Germie Bernard | Active | Bernard caught three of five targets for 27 yards in Sunday's 16-10 win over the Saints. |
| Brandon Smith | Active | Smith reverted to the Steelers' practice squad Monday, per the NFL's transaction log. |
| Darnell Washington | Active | Washington caught his lone target for a four-yard touchdown in Sunday's 16-10 win over the Saints in Paris. |
| Will Howard | Active | |
| Drew Allar | Active | |
| Eli Heidenreich | Active | |
| Terell Smith | Active | |
| Pat Freiermuth | Active | Freiermuth caught two of four targets for 20 yards in Sunday's 16-10 win over the Saints. |
| Chris Boswell | Active | Boswell made each of his three field-goal attempts and his lone extra-point try in a 16-10 victory over the Saints on Sunday in Paris. |
| DK Metcalf | Active | Metcalf two of six targets for 56 yards in Sunday's 16-10 win over the Saints. |
| Rico Dowdle | Active | Dowdle carried the ball nine times for 41 yards and caught all six of his targets for 45 yards in Sunday's 16-10 win over New Orleans. |
| Aaron Rodgers | Active | Rodgers completed 19 of 30 passes for 212 passes and a touchdown in Sunday's 16-10 win over the Saints. He added six yards on three carries. |
| Jaylen Warren | Active | Warren carried the ball 18 times for 101 yards and caught three of four targets for 36 yards in Sunday's 16-10 win over the Saints. |
| DeShon Elliott | Active | Elliott (knee) is active for Sunday's game against the Saints in Paris. |
| Mason Rudolph | Active | Rudolph is active for Sunday's game against the Saints in Paris, Teresa Varley of the Steelers' official site reports. |
| T.J. Watt | Active | Watt (calf) practiced fully Friday and doesn't carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Saints. |
| Jaquan Brisker | Active | Brisker posted seven tackles (four solo) during the Steelers' 26-19 overtime win over the Buccaneers on Sunday. |
CIN
| Andrei Iosivas | Injured Reserve | Iosivas (thumb) is making good progress in his rehab, Mike Petraglia of CLNSCincy.com reports. |
| Joe Giles-Harris | Questionable | questionable |
| Jordan Battle | Questionable | questionable |
| Erick All Jr. | Injured Reserve | Bengals head coach Zac Taylor confirmed Wednesday that All has been diagnosed with a torn ACL in his right knee and will require season-ending surgery, Jay Morrison of SI.com reports. |
| Kyle Dugger | Out | Dugger (quadriceps) won't play in Sunday's game against the Titans, Paul Dehner Jr. of The Athletic reports. |
| Ja'Marr Chase | Active | Chase (ankle) was a full participant in Thursday's practice, Mike Petraglia of CLNSCincy.com reports. |
| Barrett Carter | Active | Carter recorded nine tackles (three solo) and a pass defense during Sunday's 35-13 win over the Ravens. |
| Boye Mafe | Active | Mafe finished Sunday's 35-13 win over the Ravens with five tackles (three solo), including 1.5 sacks. |
| Bryan Cook | Active | Cook recorded nine tackles (six solo), including 0.5 sacks, during the Bengals' 35-13 win over the Ravens on Sunday. |
| Demetrius Knight Jr. | Active | Knight totaled eight tackles (two solo) and an interception during the Bengals' win over the Ravens on Sunday. |
| Dohnte Meyers | Active | Meyers failed to catch either of his two targets in Sunday's 35-13 win over the Ravens. |
| Cam Grandy | Active | The Bengals signed Grandy off the Vikings' practice squad Monday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports. |
| Connor Lew | Active | |
| Landon Robinson | Active | |
| Shemar Stewart | Active | |
| Myles Hinton | Active | |
| Russ Yeast | Active | |
| Mike Gesicki | Active | Gesicki caught his only target for a six-yard touchdown in Sunday's 35-13 win over the Ravens. |
| Samaje Perine | Active | Perine rushed four times for 16 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 35-13 win over the Ravens. |
| Drew Sample | Active | Sample caught both of his targets for 24 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 35-13 win over the Ravens. |
| Chase Brown | Active | Brown rushed 11 times for 39 yards and brought in four of five targets for 19 yards in the Bengals' 35-13 win over the Ravens on Sunday. |
| Evan McPherson | Active | McPherson did not attempt a field goal and made all five of his PATs in Sunday's 35-13 win over Baltimore. |
| Joe Burrow | Active | Burrow completed 22 of 30 passes for 292 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions while adding two rushes for 12 yards in the Bengals' 35-13 win over the Ravens on Sunday. |
| Tee Higgins | Active | Higgins secured six of seven targets for 148 yards and a touchdown in the Bengals' 35-13 win over the Ravens on Sunday. |
| Colbie Young | Active | Young (knee) was not listed on the Bengals' injury report Wednesday. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
35.6°F, wind 4.7 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 AM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (PIT): ~257 miles, no time-zone change