Mon, Nov 16 at 8:15 PM ET · M&T Bank Stadium
Expected score: LAC 20.2 – BAL 26.0
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): LAC 2.63 · BAL 1.61
Team ratings (Elo): LAC 1474.2 vs BAL 1493.9. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
LAC (0-6) — 29 days rest
Last 5: 0-5 (5 straight losses)
| Oct 18, 2026 | KC | L | 6-22 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | DEN | L | 17-23 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | SEA | L | 23-30 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | BUF | L | 16-24 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | LV | L | 14-26 |
BAL (4-3) — 22 days rest
Last 5: 3-2 (2 straight losses)
| Oct 25, 2026 | CIN | L | 13-35 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | CLE | L | 10-13 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | ATL | W | 30-23 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | TEN | W | 24-18 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | DAL | W | 34-31 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 25, 2024 | LAC 23 - BAL 30 | BAL |
Week 8 report — availability for Week 10 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 10.
LAC
| Brenen Thompson | Questionable | Thompson (quadriceps/hamstring) did not practice Thursday. |
| Donte Jackson | Questionable | Jackson (hamstring) was limited in Thursday's practice. |
| Tre' Harris | Questionable | Harris (hamstring) remained limited in Thursday's practice. |
| Ladd McConkey | Questionable | McConkey (concussion) was a full participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Denzel Perryman | Injured Reserve | Head coach Jim Harbaugh said Wednesday that Perryman (undisclosed) is "close" to returning from injured reserve, Alex Insdorf of BoltBeat.com reports. |
| Deane Leonard | Questionable | Leonard (concussion) did not participate in Wednesday's practice, Alex Insdorf of BoltBeat.com reports. |
| Derwin James Jr. | Doubtful | James (hamstring) suffered a setback in his recovery and will likely miss Sunday's game against the Rams, Eric Smith of the Chargers' official site reports. |
| Rodney Shelley | Questionable | questionable |
| Kayode Awosika | Questionable | questionable |
| Bud Dupree | Active | Dupree (neck) is off the Chargers' injury report ahead of the team's matchup versus the Rams on Sunday. |
| Joe Alt | Active | Alt (neck) was not listed on the Chargers' official injury report Wednesday. |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith | Active | Lambert-Smith caught five of nine targets for 32 yards during Sunday's 22-6 loss at Kansas City. He also lost a fumble. |
| Cameron Dicker | Active | Dicker made both of his field-goal attempts in the Chargers' 22-6 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday. |
| Charlie Kolar | Active | Kolar caught three of six targets for 20 yards during the Chargers' 22-6 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday. |
| Kimani Vidal | Active | Vidal turned seven carries into 21 yards and caught three of four passes for 19 yards during the Chargers' 22-6 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday. |
| Keaton Mitchell | Active | Mitchell turned two carries into four yards, failed to haul in his lone target and returned four kickoffs for 87 yards during Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs. |
| Quentin Johnston | Active | Johnston caught one of three targets for 57 yards in Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs. |
| Justin Herbert | Active | Herbert completed 22 of 37 passes for 204 yards, no touchdowns and one interception in Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs. He also rushed five times for 26 yards. |
| Omarion Hampton | Active | Hampton rushed seven times for 18 yards and caught all four of his targets for 21 yards in Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs. |
| Daiyan Henley | Active | Henley (knee) is active for Sunday's game against the Chiefs. |
| Jamaree Caldwell | Active | |
| Dalvin Tomlinson | Active | |
| Kendall Williamson | Active | |
| Elijah Molden | Active | |
| Justin Eboigbe | Active |
BAL
| Olaivavega Ioane | Questionable | Ioane (knee) was a limited participant at the Ravens' practice Thursday. |
| T.J. Tampa | Injured Reserve | Tampa (knee) was a full participant at the Ravens' practice Thursday. |
| Roquan Smith | Questionable | Smith (knee) was limited in Thursday's practice. |
| Kyle Hamilton | Questionable | Hamilton (knee) was limited in practice Thursday. |
| Lamar Jackson | Questionable | Jackson (ankle) was a full participant at Thursday's practice, Jeff Zrebiec of The Athletic reports. |
| Jaylinn Hawkins | Questionable | Hawkins (knee) was a non-participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Adam Randall | Injured Reserve | The Ravens opened Randall's (neck) 21-day practice window Wednesday. |
| John Simpson | Questionable | questionable |
| Tavius Robinson | Injured Reserve | The Ravens placed Robinson (pectoral) on injured reserve Saturday. |
| Broderick Washington Jr. | Active | Washington (ankle) logged a full practice Thursday. |
| Ronnie Stanley | Active | Stanley (toe) practiced in full Thursday. |
| John Jenkins | Active | |
| Josh Cuevas | Active | Cuevas caught two of three targets for 35 yards during the Ravens' 35-13 loss to the Bengals on Sunday. |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | Active | Lane caught three of five targets for 25 yards during Sunday's 35-13 loss to the Bengals. |
| Justice Hill | Active | Hill took three carries for seven yards and caught three of four targets for 26 yards during Sunday's 35-13 loss versus the Bengals. |
| Rashod Bateman | Active | Bateman caught two of four targets for 33 yards during Sunday's 35-13 loss to the Bengals. |
| Andrew Vorhees | Active | |
| Elijah Sarratt | Active | |
| Mark Andrews | Active | Andrews caught three of four targets for 23 yards in Sunday's 35-13 loss to the Bengals. |
| Tyler Huntley | Active | Huntley completed 23 of 34 passes for 298 yards with a touchdown and an interception while adding three rushes for 12 yards in the Ravens' 35-13 loss to the Bengals on Sunday. |
| Tyler Loop | Active | Loop went 2-for-2 on field-goal tries and made his only PAT during Sunday's 35-13 loss to the Bengals. |
| Derrick Henry | Active | Henry rushed 17 times for 45 yards and brought in one of two target for four yards in the Ravens' 35-13 loss to the Bengals on Sunday. |
| Zay Flowers | Active | Flowers brought in eight of 11 targets for 137 yards and a touchdown in the Ravens' 35-13 loss to the Bengals on Sunday. |
| Cam Jurgens | Active | Jurgens (concussion) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Bengals. |
| Matt Hibner | Active | Hibner (hand) was a full participant at practice Thursday. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
38.7°F, wind 7.8 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 AM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (LAC): Travel note unavailable (venue coordinates missing).