Thu, Nov 19 at 8:15 PM ET · Reliant Stadium
Expected score: IND 18.5 – HOU 27.7
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): IND 3.14 · HOU 1.47
Team ratings (Elo): IND 1456.6 vs HOU 1523.4. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
IND (2-5) — 25 days rest
Last 5: 2-3 (3 straight losses)
| Oct 25, 2026 | MIN | L | 10-16 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | TEN | L | 20-26 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | PIT | L | 22-34 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | WSH | W | 30-13 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | HOU | W | 19-17 |
HOU (2-5) — 25 days rest
Last 5: 2-3 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 25, 2026 | NYG | L | 21-27 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | JAX | W | 34-31 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | TEN | W | 26-3 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | DAL | L | 30-34 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | IND | L | 17-19 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 8, 2024 | IND 27 - HOU 29 | HOU |
| Oct 27, 2024 | HOU 23 - IND 20 | HOU |
| Nov 30, 2025 | IND 16 - HOU 20 | HOU |
| Jan 4, 2026 | HOU 38 - IND 30 | HOU |
| Sep 27, 2026 | IND 19 - HOU 17 | IND |
Week 8 report — availability for Week 11 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 11.
IND
| Anthony Gould | Questionable | Gould (concussion) was a full participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Drew Ogletree | Questionable | Ogletree (knee) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Tyler Warren | Questionable | Warren (groin) was a limited participant at Thursday's practice. |
| Cam Taylor-Britt | Injured Reserve | The Colts placed Taylor-Britt on injured reserve Tuesday due to a groin injury, Nathan Brown of The Indianapolis Star reports. |
| Bryce Boettcher | Questionable | questionable |
| Justin Walley | Questionable | According to head coach Shane Steichen, Walley did not return to Sunday's 16-10 loss to Minnesota due to a knee injury, Kevin Bowen of 107.5 The Fan Indianapolis reports. |
| Alec Pierce | Injured Reserve | Colts head coach Shane Steichen said Monday that Pierce (heel) will "most likely not" have his 21-day practice window opened in Week 8, Jake Arthur of Roundtable.io reports. |
| Sauce Gardner | Active | Gardner (calf) practiced in full Thursday. |
| Matt Goncalves | Active | |
| Tim Smith | Active | |
| Jonathan Taylor | Active | Taylor told reporters Thursday that he hasn't requested a trade out of Indianapolis, Stephen Holder of ESPN.com reports. "I haven't heard anything, and I can't control that," Taylor said regarding the possibility of being traded. "Obviously, you guys know that I'm always proud to wear the horseshoe, proud to be here." |
| CJ Allen | Active | Allen (ankle) was listed as a full participant in Wednesday's walkthrough. |
| Josh Downs | Active | Downs formally requested a trade from the Colts on Wednesday, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com reports. |
| Akeem Davis-Gaither | Active | Davis-Gaither recorded seven tackles (three solo) in Sunday's loss to Minnesota. |
| Adetomiwa Adebawore | Active | Adebawore finished Sunday's loss to Minnesota with five tackles (four solo), including 2.0 sacks, and a defensed pass. |
| A.J. Haulcy | Active | Haulcy produced nine tackles (five solo) in a loss to the Vikings on Sunday. |
| DJ Giddens | Active | Giddens did not play a single snap during Sunday's 13-10 loss to the Vikings. |
| Will Mallory | Active | Mallory did not catch any of his three targets during Sunday's 16-10 loss to Minnesota. |
| Mo Alie-Cox | Active | Alie-Cox failed to haul in either of his targets during the Colts' 16-10 loss to the Vikings on Sunday. |
| Laquon Treadwell | Active | Treadwell caught both of his targets for 19 yards in the Colts' 16-10 loss to the Vikings on Sunday. |
| Seth McGowan | Active | McGowan turned 11 carries into 46 yards, caught his only target for two yards and added 140 yards as a kick returner during Sunday's 16-10 loss to the Vikings. |
| Keenan Allen | Active | Allen caught all three of his targets for 31 yards during Sunday's 16-10 loss to the Vikings. |
| Riley Leonard | Active | |
| Dalton Tucker | Active | |
| Daniel Jones | Active | Colts head coach Shane Steichen said that Jones will remain the team's starting quarterback in Sunday's game against the Jaguars, Mike Chappell of Fox 59 News Indianapolis reports. |
HOU
| Jaylin Noel | Injured Reserve | Noel, who was placed on injured reserve earlier Wednesday, is expected to require surgery to address his toe injury and will miss the remainder of the season, Jonathan M. Alexander of the Houston Chronicle reports. |
| Jalen Pitre | Questionable | questionable |
| David Montgomery | Questionable | questionable |
| Reed Blankenship | Questionable | questionable |
| Blake Fisher | Questionable | questionable |
| Azeez Al-Shaair | Active | Al-Shaair recorded nine tackles (two solo) in a Week 7 overtime loss to the Giants on Sunday. |
| Henry To'oTo'o | Active | To'oTo'o notched 10 tackles (three solo), including 0.5 sacks, in Sunday's Week 7 overtime loss to the Giants. |
| M.J. Stewart | Active | Stewart finished with 12 tackles (five solo), including 0.5 sacks, and a defensed pass in Sunday's overtime loss to the Giants. |
| Foster Moreau | Active | Moreau played 21 offensive snaps and nine special-teams snaps in the Texans' 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants on Sunday. |
| Dare Ogunbowale | Active | Ogunbowale didn't record an offensive touch or target in Sunday's 24-21 overtime loss to the Giants. |
| Tank Dell | Active | Dell caught his only target for 43 yards and added a two-yard rush during Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants. |
| Kayshon Boutte | Active | Boutte caught one of two targets for 25 yards during Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss versus the Giants. |
| Marlin Klein | Active | |
| Febechi Nwaiwu | Active | |
| Nate Thomas | Active | |
| Dalton Schultz | Active | Schultz caught five of six targets for 45 yards in Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants. |
| Xavier Hutchinson | Active | Hutchinson caught three of six targets for 17 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants. He added 12 rushing yards on two attempts. |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | Active | Fairbairn went 2-for-2 on field-goal attempts and converted his only PAT in Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants. |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | Active | Harrison caught one of four targets for a six-yard touchdown in Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants. |
| C.J. Stroud | Active | Stroud completed 17 of 28 passes for 153 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants. He added two rushing attempts for four yards and threw a successful two-point conversion. |
| Woody Marks | Active | Marks rushed 19 times for 66 yards and caught his only target for 15 yards in Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants. |
| Nico Collins | Active | Collins caught two of five targets for six yards in Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants. |
| Brevin Jordan | Active | Jordan (foot) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Giants, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports. |
| Logan Hall | Active | |
| Jadeveon Clowney | Active |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
n/a — indoor venue
Travel (IND): ~871 miles, 1h time-zone shift west