Sun, Nov 22 at 1:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium
Expected score: JAX 25.1 – NYG 21.1
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): JAX 1.72 · NYG 2.39
Team ratings (Elo): JAX 1576.0 vs NYG 1453.6. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
JAX (4-2) — 35 days rest
Last 5: 3-2 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 18, 2026 | HOU | L | 31-34 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | PHI | W | 19-17 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | CIN | W | 22-17 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | NE | W | 35-6 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | DEN | L | 13-20 |
NYG (4-2-1) — 28 days rest
Last 5: 3-1-1 (1 straight win)
| Oct 25, 2026 | HOU | W | 27-21 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | NO | L | 27-34 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | WSH | T | 27-27 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | ARI | W | 36-24 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | TEN | W | 12-7 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| No meetings in coverage period | ||
Week 8 report — availability for Week 11 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 11.
JAX
| Antonio Johnson | Questionable | Johnson (ankle) sat out practice both Wednesday and Thursday. |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | Questionable | Allen (hamstring) was limited in practice Thursday. |
| Jakobi Meyers | Questionable | Meyers (hamstring) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Jahlani Tavai | Questionable | questionable |
| Ruke Orhorhoro | Questionable | questionable |
| Anton Harrison | Injured Reserve | Harrison was diagnosed with a torn ACL while undergoing a procedure on his right knee Thursday, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports. |
| Ross Matiscik | Questionable | questionable |
| Montaric Brown | Active | Brown (hamstring) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Foyesade Oluokun | Active | Oluokun logged eight tackles (four solo) in the Jaguars' 34-31 loss to the Texans in London on Sunday. |
| Josh Cameron | Active | Cameron didn't garner a target and recorded 46 kickoff-return yards during Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. |
| Cam Little | Active | Little made his sole field-goal attempt and all four of his PATs in the Jaguars' 34-31 loss to the Texans on Sunday in London. |
| Nate Boerkircher | Active | Boerkircher caught both of his targets for eight yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. |
| Jalen Huskey | Active | |
| Albert Regis | Active | |
| Wesley Williams | Active | |
| CJ Williams | Active | |
| Brenton Strange | Active | Strange caught five of seven targets for 44 yards during Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | Active | Rodriguez rushed 11 times for 55 yards while failing to reel in his only target during Sunday's 34-31 loss to Houston. |
| Travis Hunter | Active | Hunter caught all four of his targets for 59 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans in London. He also recorded three tackles and an interception. |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | Active | Thomas didn't haul in either of his two targets during Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans in London. |
| Parker Washington | Active | Washington caught four of 11 targets for 64 yards in Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. |
| Trevor Lawrence | Active | Lawrence completed 24 of 41 passes for 306 yards and four touchdowns with one interception in Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. He added 11 rushing yards on three carries. |
| Bhayshul Tuten | Active | Tuten carried the ball 12 times for 39 yards and caught all four of his targets for 48 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. |
| Ameer Abdullah | Active | |
| Eric Murray | Active | Murray (concussion) does not have an injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Texans. |
NYG
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | Injured Reserve | The Giants placed Tracy (hamstring) on injured reserve Tuesday, Dan Salomone of the team's official site reports. |
| Theo Johnson | Questionable | questionable |
| Marcus Mbow | Questionable | questionable |
| Greg Newsome II | Questionable | questionable |
| Jevon Holland | Questionable | questionable |
| Cam Skattebo | Questionable | Skattebo is expected to "OK" after tweaking his hamstring on a 42-yard run in overtime during Sunday's 27-21 win over the Texans, Mike Garafolo of NFL Network reports. |
| Tremaine Edmunds | Injured Reserve | Edmunds (chest) was placed on injured reserve Saturday, Dan Duggan of The Athletic reports. |
| Devin Singletary | Active | Singletary is expected to handle a bigger role out of the Giants' backfield after Tyrone Tracy (hamstring) was placed on injured reserve Tuesday, Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com reports. |
| Arvell Reese | Active | Reese posted seven tackles (five solo), including 0.5 sacks, in Sunday's 27-21 overtime victory against the Texans. |
| Micah McFadden | Active | McFadden notched 10 tackles (all solo) in Sunday's 27-21 overtime win against the Texans. |
| Greg Desrosiers Jr. | Active | The Giants signed Desrosiers off the Chargers' practice squad Tuesday, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports. |
| Darnell Mooney | Active | Mooney caught one of three targets for four yards and rushed once for three yards during Sunday's 27-21 overtime win against the Texans. |
| Jameis Winston | Active | Winston turned four carries into four yards and a touchdown during the Giants' 27-21 overtime win over the Texans on Sunday. |
| Dominic Zvada | Active | Head coach John Harbaugh reiterated Monday that he's confident in Zvada and said that the Giants have no plans to work out other kickers, Pat Leonard of the New York Daily News reports. |
| Nikko Reed | Active | |
| Josh Sills | Active | |
| Jake Haener | Active | |
| Isaiah Likely | Active | Likely caught two of four targets for 12 yards in Sunday's 27-21 overtime win over the Texans. |
| Malachi Fields | Active | Fields caught four of five targets for 83 yards in Sunday's 27-21 overtime win over Houston. |
| J.J. McCarthy | Active | McCarthy completed 20 of 28 passes for 252 yards and no touchdowns or interceptions in Sunday's 27-21 overtime win over the Texans. He added one yard on his only carry. |
| Malik Nabers | Active | Nabers caught seven of nine targets for 111 yards in Sunday's 27-21 overtime win over the Texans. |
| Jermaine Eluemunor | Active | Eluemunor (calf) is active Week 7 against the Texans, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports. |
| Tyler Nubin | Active | Nubin (neck) is active Week 7 against the Texans, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports. |
| Paulson Adebo | Active | Adebo (knee) is active Week 7 against the Texans, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports. |
| Andrew Thomas | Active | Thomas (groin) does not have an injury designation against the Texans on Sunday. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
37.8°F, wind 8.7 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 AM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (JAX): ~839 miles, no time-zone change