Sun, Nov 22 at 1:00 PM ET · Highmark Stadium
Expected score: MIA 15.8 – BUF 30.4
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): MIA 4.39 · BUF 1.29
Team ratings (Elo): MIA 1443.1 vs BUF 1590.2. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
MIA (1-5) — 28 days rest
Last 5: 1-4 (1 straight win)
| Oct 25, 2026 | NYJ | W | 28-25 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | CIN | L | 24-31 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | MIN | L | 10-15 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | KC | L | 10-24 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | SF | L | 13-35 |
BUF (5-1) — 34 days rest
Last 5: 4-1 (2 straight wins)
| Oct 18, 2026 | LV | W | 33-30 |
| Oct 12, 2026 | LAR | W | 37-34 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | NE | L | 26-29 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | LAC | W | 24-16 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | DET | W | 41-31 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2024 | MIA 10 - BUF 31 | BUF |
| Nov 3, 2024 | BUF 30 - MIA 27 | BUF |
| Sep 18, 2025 | BUF 31 - MIA 21 | BUF |
| Nov 9, 2025 | MIA 30 - BUF 13 | MIA |
Week 8 report — availability for Week 11 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 11.
MIA
| Jared Wayne | Questionable | Wayne (knee) was a limited practice participant Thursday, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. |
| Will Kacmarek | Questionable | Kacmarek (hamstring) practiced in a limited capacity Thursday, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. |
| JuJu Brents | Questionable | Brents (neck/concussion) was a limited practice participant Thursday, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. |
| Greg Dulcich | Questionable | Dulcich (ankle) remained limited at practice Thursday, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. |
| Malik Washington | Questionable | Washington (knee) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. |
| Kadyn Proctor | Questionable | Proctor sustained a concussion during Sunday's game against the Jets, Alain Poupart of SI.com reports. |
| Michael Taaffe | Questionable | questionable |
| Dante Trader Jr. | Questionable | questionable |
| Tucker Addington | Questionable | questionable |
| Reese Taylor | Questionable | questionable |
| Robert Beal Jr. | Active | Beal (hamstring) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Marcel Louis-Jacques of ESPN.com reports. |
| Willie Gay Jr. | Active | Gay (illness) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Marcel Louis-Jacques of ESPN.com reports. |
| Jaylen Wright | Active | Wright (quadriceps/foot) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Marcel Louis-Jacques of ESPN.com reports. |
| Jacob Rodriguez | Active | Rodriguez tallied four tackles (one solo) during Miami's win over the Jets on Sunday. |
| Jordyn Brooks | Active | Brooks posted nine tackles (five solo) during the Dolphins' win Sunday over the Jets. |
| Kevin Coleman Jr. | Active | Coleman did not catch his only target in the Dolphins' 28-25 win over the Jets on Sunday. |
| Chris Bell | Active | Bell caught three of his four targets for 25 yards in the Dolphins' 28-25 win over the Jets on Sunday. |
| Kaytron Allen | Active | Allen logged six snaps on special teams and didn't show up on the box score otherwise during Sunday's 28-25 win over the Jets. |
| Zane Gonzalez | Active | Gonzalez reverted to the Dolphins' practice squad Monday, per the NFL's transaction log. |
| Chukwuebuka Godrick | Active | |
| Marcellas Dial Jr. | Active | |
| Jalen Tolbert | Active | |
| Caleb Douglas | Active | Douglas (ankle) caught two of three targets for 70 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 28-25 win over the Jets. |
| Malik Willis | Active | Willis completed 14 of 21 passes for 208 yards and two touchdowns while rushing six times for 39 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 28-25 win over the Jets. |
| Ollie Gordon II | Active | Gordon rushed 25 times for 103 yards and a touchdown while catching one of three targets for no gain in Sunday's 28-25 win over the Jets. |
BUF
| Dalton Kincaid | Questionable | Kincaid (chest) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| DJ Moore | Questionable | Moore (shoulder) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Joe Andreessen | Questionable | questionable |
| Ray Davis | Questionable | Davis didn't participate in Thursday's practice due to an illness, Matt Parrino of The Syracuse Post-Standard reports. |
| Tyrell Shavers | Out | The Bills designated Shavers (knee) to return from the reserve/PUP list Wednesday, but he will not play against the Ravens on Sunday, Cameron Wolfe of NFL Network reports. |
| TJ Parker | Questionable | questionable |
| Bradley Chubb | Questionable | questionable |
| Dee Alford | Questionable | questionable |
| Spencer Brown | Questionable | questionable |
| C.J. Gardner-Johnson | Suspension | reserve-sus |
| Ed Oliver | Active | Oliver (knee) was a full participant at the Bills' practice Thursday. |
| T.J. Sanders | Active | |
| Sam Franklin Jr. | Active | The NFL reduced Franklin's discipline from a one-game suspension to a fine of $14,926, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports. |
| Dorian Williams | Active | Williams logged five tackles (three solo) and one pass defensed for an interception in the Bills' 33-30 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Davison Igbinosun | Active | Defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard praised Igbinosun's play earlier this week and plans to keep giving the rookie a good amount of playing time, Alec White of the Bills' official site reports. Said Leonard, "I think what he's done the last couple weeks, he's definitely earned a high majority of the snaps at the corner position. I know what I'm getting, play in and play out." |
| Dawson Knox | Active | Knox caught his only target for no gain during Sunday's 33-30 win at Las Vegas. |
| Tyler Bass | Active | Bass converted all four of his field-goal attempts and all three of his extra-point tries during Buffalo's win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Ty Johnson | Active | Johnson logged a three-yard carry and caught both of his targets for 24 yards during the Bills' 33-30 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Joshua Palmer | Active | Palmer caught one of two targets for 37 yards during Buffalo's 33-30 win over Las Vegas on Sunday. |
| Mike Danna | Active | |
| Jude Bowry | Active | |
| Ar'maj Reed-Adams | Active | |
| Keon Coleman | Active | Coleman brought in four of six targets for 59 yards and a touchdown in the Bills' 33-30 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Khalil Shakir | Active | Shakir brought in four of six targets for 34 yards and a touchdown in the Bills' 33-30 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Josh Allen | Active | Allen completed 23 of 33 passes for 255 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions and rushed five times for one yard in the Bills' 33-30 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
35.8°F, wind 3.8 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 AM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (MIA): ~1,165 miles, no time-zone change