Sun, Nov 22 at 1:00 PM ET · AT&T Stadium
Expected score: TEN 17.5 – DAL 28.7
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): TEN 3.52 · DAL 1.4
Team ratings (Elo): TEN 1379.1 vs DAL 1474.8. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
TEN (1-6) — 28 days rest
Last 5: 1-4 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 25, 2026 | CLE | L | 24-27 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | IND | W | 26-20 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | HOU | L | 3-26 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | BAL | L | 18-24 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | NYG | L | 7-12 |
DAL (3-4) — 26 days rest
Last 5: 2-3 (1 straight win)
| Oct 26, 2026 | PHI | W | 38-21 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | GB | L | 13-23 |
| Oct 8, 2026 | TB | L | 16-24 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | HOU | W | 34-30 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | BAL | L | 31-34 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| No meetings in coverage period | ||
Week 8 report — availability for Week 11 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 11.
TEN
| Calvin Ridley | Questionable | Ridley (hip) was limited at practice Thursday, Jim Wyatt of the Titans' official site reports. |
| Tyjae Spears | Questionable | Spears (knee) isn't practicing Thursday, Terry McCormick of TitanInsider.com reports. |
| Carnell Tate | Questionable | Tate (shoulder) won't practice Thursday, Jim Wyatt of the Titans' official site reports. |
| John Franklin-Myers | Questionable | questionable |
| Tommy Townsend | Questionable | Titans head coach Robert Saleh said Monday that Townsend is still being evaluated after sustaining a left knee injury in Sunday's 27-24 loss to the Browns, Terry McCormick of TitanInsider.com reports. |
| Dorian Mausi | Injured Reserve | The Titans opened Mausi's 21-day practice window Wednesday, Jim Wyatt of the team's official website reports. |
| Jonah Laulu | Active | The Titans claimed Laulu off waivers from the Raiders on Wednesday, Jim Wyatt of the Titans' official site reports. |
| Amani Hooker | Active | Hooker posted five tackles (two solo) during Sunday's 27-24 loss to Cleveland. |
| Kevin Winston Jr. | Active | Winston logged 14 tackles (eight solo) during the Titans' 27-24 loss to the Browns on Sunday. |
| Anthony Hill Jr. | Active | Hill logged 12 tackles (five solo) and one forced fumble during the Titans' 27-24 loss to the Browns on Sunday. |
| Elic Ayomanor | Active | Ayomanor caught three of his seven targets for 44 yards in the Titans' 27-24 loss to the Browns on Sunday. |
| Jaylon Jones | Active | |
| Kylen Granson | Active | |
| Jackie Marshall | Active | |
| Nicholas Singleton | Active | |
| Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson | Active | |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | Active | Robinson caught four of seven targets for seven yards during Sunday's 27-24 loss to the Browns. |
| Gunnar Helm | Active | Helm caught three of four targets for 24 yards in Sunday's 27-24 loss to the Browns. |
| Cam Ward | Active | Ward completed 20 of 31 passes for 181 yards with an interception in Sunday's 27-24 loss to Cleveland. He added five yards on two carries. |
| Tony Pollard | Active | Pollard carried the ball 25 times for 129 yards and three touchdowns in Sunday's 27-24 loss to the Browns. He also caught all three of his targets for 26 yards. |
| Joey Slye | Active | Slye made his only field-goal attempt while going 3-for-3 on extra-point tries during Sunday's 27-24 loss to the Browns. |
| Tony Adams | Active | Adams (ankle) is active for Sunday's game against the Browns. |
| Timmy Horne | Active | The Titans signed Horne from the practice squad to the active roster Saturday, Jim Wyatt of the team's official site reports. |
| Alontae Taylor | Active | |
| Joshua Williams | Active | The Titans activated Williams (pectoral) from reserve/PUP on Saturday. |
DAL
| Quinnen Williams | Questionable | Williams (hamstring) practiced in a limited fashion Thursday, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports. |
| Caleb Downs | Questionable | Downs (ankle) was a limited practice participant Thursday, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports. |
| Dee Winters | Questionable | Winters (calf) didn't practice Thursday, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports. |
| KaVontae Turpin | Questionable | Turpin (ribs) was a non-participant in practice Thursday, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports. |
| Jonathan Bullard | Injured Reserve | Bullard (calf) was designated to return from injured reserve by the Cowboys on Thursday. |
| George Pickens | Questionable | Pickens (shoulder/hamstring) was a limited participant at Thursday's practice, Jon Machota of The Athletic reports. |
| Luke Schoonmaker | Questionable | questionable |
| Drew Shelton | Questionable | questionable |
| P.J. Locke | Injured Reserve | Locke (foot) has been downgraded from questionable to out for Monday's game against the Eagles. |
| Marist Liufau | Injured Reserve | Liufau (forearm) has been downgraded from questionable to out ahead of Monday night's game against the Eagles. |
| Brandon Aubrey | Active | Aubrey made all three of his field-goal attempts and all three PAT tries in Monday's 38-21 win over the Eagles. |
| DeMarvion Overshown | Active | Overshown posted six tackles (five solo) and two pass defenses (including one interception) during the Cowboys' 38-21 win over the Eagles on Monday. |
| Jake Ferguson | Active | Ferguson failed to haul in his lone target during Monday's 38-21 win over the Eagles. |
| Tyler Goodson | Active | Goodson turned 10 carries into 38 yards and returned two kickoffs for 42 yards during the Cowboys' 38-21 win over the Eagles on Monday. |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | Active | Spann-Ford finished with two catches for 11 yards on two targets in Monday's 38-21 win over the Eagles. |
| Tyrus Wheat | Active | |
| Ryan Flournoy | Active | Flournoy secured all four targets for 70 yards in the Cowboys' 38-21 win over the Eagles on Monday night. |
| Javonte Williams | Active | Williams rushed 25 times for 155 yards and a touchdown in the Cowboys' 38-21 win over the Eagles on Monday night. |
| Dak Prescott | Active | Prescott completed 15 of 27 passes for 212 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions while adding two rushes for eight yards in the Cowboys' 38-21 win over the Eagles on Monday night. He also had a two-point conversion run. |
| CeeDee Lamb | Active | Lamb brought in five of 12 targets for 74 yards and two touchdowns in the Cowboys' 38-21 win over the Eagles on Monday night. |
| Cobie Durant | Active | Durant (hamstring) does not have an injury designation for Monday's game against Philadelphia, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports. |
| Broderick Jones | Active | |
| Tyler Guyton | Active | |
| Juanyeh Thomas | Active | Thomas was signed to the Cowboys' active roster Tuesday. |
| James Houston | Active |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
n/a — indoor venue
Travel (TEN): ~633 miles, no time-zone change