NYJ at LAC — GameScope

NYJ at LAC uncertain forecast

Sun, Nov 22 at 4:05 PM ET · SoFi Stadium

Most likely outcome

LAC wins — 68.9%

NYJ win

31.1%

LAC win

68.9%

Expected score: NYJ 18.3 – LAC 27.9

Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.

Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)

Fair odds (display only): NYJ 3.21 · LAC 1.45

How this forecast is calculated

Team ratings (Elo): NYJ 1401.2 vs LAC 1474.2. 393 games trained (Oct 30).

Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.

What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).

Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.

Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.

Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.

Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.

Data used

all core data present

Date	Score	Winner
No meetings in coverage period

Injuries contextual research

Week 8 report — availability for Week 11 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 11.

NYJ

Breece Hall	Questionable	Hall (quadriceps) remained limited at Thursday's practice.
Joseph Ossai	Doubtful	Ossai (ankle) didn't participate in the Jets' practice Wednesday, Rich Cimini of ESPN.com reports.
David Bailey	Questionable	Bailey didn't practice Wednesday due to a groin injury.
T'Vondre Sweat	Doubtful	Sweat (knee) is week-to-week and is unlikely to suit up for Sunday's game against the Raiders, Rich Cimini of ESPN.com reported Wednesday.
Dylan Parham	Questionable	questionable
Max Mitchell	Questionable	questionable
Kiko Mauigoa	Injured Reserve	The Jets placed Mauigoa (quadriceps) on injured reserve Saturday, Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic reports.

Show all 25 (18 more)

Braelon Allen	Active	Allen (ankle) was a full participant at Thursday's practice.
Kene Nwangwu	Active	Nwangwu was a full participant in Wednesday's practice.
Garrett Wilson	Active	Wilson said Wednesday that he won't ask to be traded from the Jets, Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic reports.
Demario Davis	Active	Davis finished Sunday's Week 7 loss to Miami with three tackles (two solo) and one defensed pass.
Jamien Sherwood	Active	Sherwood totaled eight tackles (four solo) and two defensed passes Sunday in a loss to Miami.
Dane Belton	Active	Belton registered nine tackles (six solo) in Sunday's loss to the Dolphins.
Minkah Fitzpatrick	Active	Fitzpatrick posted 10 tackles (six solo) Sunday in a loss to Miami.
Tim Patrick	Active	Patrick did not garner a target during Sunday's 28-25 loss to the Dolphins.
Adonai Mitchell	Active	Mitchell failed to haul in any of his three targets during the Jets' 28-25 loss to the Dolphins on Sunday.
Isaiah Davis	Active	Davis logged a five-yard carry and caught all three of his targets for 49 yards during Sunday's 28-25 loss to Miami. He also added a tackle on special teams.
Jack Heflin	Active
Jarvis Brownlee Jr.	Active
Kenyon Sadiq	Active	Sadiq caught his lone target for six yards in Sunday's 28-25 loss to the Dolphins.
Jason Sanders	Active	Sanders went 1-for-2 on field-goal tries and made both of his extra-point attempts during Sunday's 28-25 loss to Miami.
Mason Taylor	Active	Taylor caught all five of his targets for 62 yards and two touchdowns while adding a two-point conversion in Sunday's 28-25 loss to the Dolphins.
Geno Smith	Active	Smith completed 23 of 30 passes for 287 yards, three touchdowns and one interception in Sunday's 28-25 loss to the Dolphins. He also rushed twice for no gain and threw a successful two-point conversion.
Omar Cooper Jr.	Active	Cooper caught all five of his targets for 115 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 28-25 loss to the Dolphins.
Will McDonald IV	Active

LAC

Brenen Thompson	Questionable	Thompson (quadriceps/hamstring) did not practice Thursday.
Donte Jackson	Questionable	Jackson (hamstring) was limited in Thursday's practice.
Tre' Harris	Questionable	Harris (hamstring) remained limited in Thursday's practice.
Ladd McConkey	Questionable	McConkey (concussion) was a full participant in Thursday's practice.
Denzel Perryman	Injured Reserve	Head coach Jim Harbaugh said Wednesday that Perryman (undisclosed) is "close" to returning from injured reserve, Alex Insdorf of BoltBeat.com reports.
Deane Leonard	Questionable	Leonard (concussion) did not participate in Wednesday's practice, Alex Insdorf of BoltBeat.com reports.
Derwin James Jr.	Doubtful	James (hamstring) suffered a setback in his recovery and will likely miss Sunday's game against the Rams, Eric Smith of the Chargers' official site reports.
Rodney Shelley	Questionable	questionable
Kayode Awosika	Questionable	questionable

Show all 25 (16 more)

Bud Dupree	Active	Dupree (neck) is off the Chargers' injury report ahead of the team's matchup versus the Rams on Sunday.
Joe Alt	Active	Alt (neck) was not listed on the Chargers' official injury report Wednesday.
KeAndre Lambert-Smith	Active	Lambert-Smith caught five of nine targets for 32 yards during Sunday's 22-6 loss at Kansas City. He also lost a fumble.
Cameron Dicker	Active	Dicker made both of his field-goal attempts in the Chargers' 22-6 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday.
Charlie Kolar	Active	Kolar caught three of six targets for 20 yards during the Chargers' 22-6 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday.
Kimani Vidal	Active	Vidal turned seven carries into 21 yards and caught three of four passes for 19 yards during the Chargers' 22-6 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday.
Keaton Mitchell	Active	Mitchell turned two carries into four yards, failed to haul in his lone target and returned four kickoffs for 87 yards during Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs.
Quentin Johnston	Active	Johnston caught one of three targets for 57 yards in Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs.
Justin Herbert	Active	Herbert completed 22 of 37 passes for 204 yards, no touchdowns and one interception in Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs. He also rushed five times for 26 yards.
Omarion Hampton	Active	Hampton rushed seven times for 18 yards and caught all four of his targets for 21 yards in Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs.
Daiyan Henley	Active	Henley (knee) is active for Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Jamaree Caldwell	Active
Dalvin Tomlinson	Active
Kendall Williamson	Active
Elijah Molden	Active
Justin Eboigbe	Active

Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.

Oct 25, 2026	MIA	L	25-28
Oct 18, 2026	NE	L	19-26
Oct 11, 2026	CLE	W	17-12
Oct 4, 2026	CHI	L	12-23
Sep 27, 2026	DET	L	24-31

Oct 18, 2026	KC	L	6-22
Oct 11, 2026	DEN	L	17-23
Oct 4, 2026	SEA	L	23-30
Sep 27, 2026	BUF	L	16-24
Sep 20, 2026	LV	L	14-26

GameScope NFL research

NYJ at LAC uncertain forecast

Form & rest contextual research

Head-to-head contextual research LAC 0 - NYJ 0

Injuries contextual research

Weather & travel contextual research