Sun, Nov 22 at 4:25 PM ET · Lincoln Financial Field
Expected score: PIT 22.6 – PHI 23.6
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): PIT 2.08 · PHI 1.92
Team ratings (Elo): PIT 1537.9 vs PHI 1486.6. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
PIT (5-2) — 28 days rest
Last 5: 4-1 (3 straight wins)
| Oct 25, 2026 | NO | W | 16-10 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | TB | W | 26-19 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | IND | W | 34-22 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | CLE | L | 24-27 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | CIN | W | 30-27 |
PHI (2-5) — 26 days rest
Last 5: 0-5 (5 straight losses)
| Oct 26, 2026 | DAL | L | 21-38 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | CAR | L | 14-25 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | JAX | L | 17-19 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | LAR | L | 20-24 |
| Sep 28, 2026 | CHI | L | 7-27 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 15, 2024 | PHI 27 - PIT 13 | PHI |
Week 8 report — availability for Week 11 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 11.
PIT
| Ben Skowronek | Questionable | Skowronek (calf) practiced in a limited capacity Thursday, Teresa Varley of the Steelers' official site reports. |
| Alex Highsmith | Questionable | questionable |
| Doneiko Slaughter | Questionable | questionable |
| Brandin Echols | Questionable | questionable |
| Sebastian Joseph-Day | Injured Reserve | Joseph-Day (triceps) was placed on injured reserve by the Steelers on Thursday, Teresa Varley of the team's official website reports. |
| Jalen Ramsey | Active | |
| Payton Wilson | Active | Wilson totaled six tackles (three solo) and an interception during Pittsburgh's win over the Saints on Sunday. |
| Patrick Queen | Active | Queen compiled 10 tackles (seven solo), including 1.0 sacks, during Pittsburgh's win over the Saints on Sunday. |
| Germie Bernard | Active | Bernard caught three of five targets for 27 yards in Sunday's 16-10 win over the Saints. |
| Brandon Smith | Active | Smith reverted to the Steelers' practice squad Monday, per the NFL's transaction log. |
| Darnell Washington | Active | Washington caught his lone target for a four-yard touchdown in Sunday's 16-10 win over the Saints in Paris. |
| Will Howard | Active | |
| Drew Allar | Active | |
| Eli Heidenreich | Active | |
| Terell Smith | Active | |
| Pat Freiermuth | Active | Freiermuth caught two of four targets for 20 yards in Sunday's 16-10 win over the Saints. |
| Chris Boswell | Active | Boswell made each of his three field-goal attempts and his lone extra-point try in a 16-10 victory over the Saints on Sunday in Paris. |
| DK Metcalf | Active | Metcalf two of six targets for 56 yards in Sunday's 16-10 win over the Saints. |
| Rico Dowdle | Active | Dowdle carried the ball nine times for 41 yards and caught all six of his targets for 45 yards in Sunday's 16-10 win over New Orleans. |
| Aaron Rodgers | Active | Rodgers completed 19 of 30 passes for 212 passes and a touchdown in Sunday's 16-10 win over the Saints. He added six yards on three carries. |
| Jaylen Warren | Active | Warren carried the ball 18 times for 101 yards and caught three of four targets for 36 yards in Sunday's 16-10 win over the Saints. |
| DeShon Elliott | Active | Elliott (knee) is active for Sunday's game against the Saints in Paris. |
| Mason Rudolph | Active | Rudolph is active for Sunday's game against the Saints in Paris, Teresa Varley of the Steelers' official site reports. |
| T.J. Watt | Active | Watt (calf) practiced fully Friday and doesn't carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Saints. |
| Jaquan Brisker | Active | Brisker posted seven tackles (four solo) during the Steelers' 26-19 overtime win over the Buccaneers on Sunday. |
PHI
| DeVonta Smith | Questionable | Smith (hamstring) missed Thursday's practice. |
| Saquon Barkley | Questionable | Barkley (hamstring/back) didn't practice Thursday. |
| Marcus Epps | Questionable | questionable |
| Dontayvion Wicks | Questionable | Wicks (ankle) isn't participating in Thursday's practice, Dave Zangaro of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports. |
| Nolan Smith Jr. | Questionable | Smith (concussion) was listed as a limited participant in Wednesday's walkthrough. |
| Michael Carter II | Questionable | Carter (abdomen) was estimated to be a limited participant in Wednesday's walkthrough. |
| Jihaad Campbell | Questionable | Campbell (hamstring/quadriceps) didn't participate in Wednesday's walkthrough. |
| Moro Ojomo | Questionable | questionable |
| Jalyx Hunt | Questionable | questionable |
| Jonathan Jones | Questionable | questionable |
| Jonathan Greenard | Questionable | questionable |
| Dameon Pierce | Injured Reserve | The Eagles placed Pierce (undisclosed) on injured reserve Wednesday |
| Jalen Carter | Active | |
| Smael Mondon Jr. | Active | |
| Jake Elliott | Active | Elliott made all three of his PAT attempts and didn't attempt a field goal in Monday's 38-21 loss to the Cowboys. |
| Elijah Mitchell | Active | Mitchell reverted to the Eagles' practice squad Tuesday. |
| Jaydon Blue | Active | The Eagles signed Blue from the practice squad to the active roster Wednesday. |
| Cooper DeJean | Active | DeJean recorded seven tackles (three solo) during Monday's 38-21 loss versus the Cowboys. |
| Zack Baun | Active | Baun recorded nine tackles (two solo) and a pass defensed during Monday's 38-21 loss versus the Cowboys. |
| Elijah Moore | Active | Moore caught both of his targets for 16 yards during Monday's 38-21 loss to the Cowboys. |
| Eli Stowers | Active | Stowers failed to haul in his lone target during Monday's 38-21 loss to Dallas. |
| Darius Cooper | Active | Cooper caught one of three passes for 17 yards during the Eagles' 38-21 loss to the Cowboys on Monday. |
| Jake Majors | Active | |
| Hollywood Brown | Active | Brown secured two of five targets for 30 yards in the Eagles' 38-21 loss to the Cowboys on Monday night. |
| Dallas Goedert | Active | Goedert secured five of seven targets for 48 yards in the Eagles' 38-21 loss to the Cowboys on Monday night. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
39.2°F, wind 8.1 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 AM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (PIT): ~259 miles, no time-zone change