Mon, Nov 23 at 8:15 PM ET · Northwest Stadium
Expected score: CIN 22.9 – WSH 23.3
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): CIN 2.04 · WSH 1.96
Team ratings (Elo): CIN 1486.4 vs WSH 1428.6. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
CIN (4-2) — 29 days rest
Last 5: 3-2 (2 straight wins)
| Oct 25, 2026 | BAL | W | 35-13 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | MIA | W | 31-24 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | JAX | L | 17-22 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | PIT | L | 27-30 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | HOU | W | 20-6 |
WSH (1-4-1) — 35 days rest
Last 5: 1-3-1 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 19, 2026 | SF | L | 17-23 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | NYG | T | 27-27 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | IND | L | 13-30 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | SEA | W | 33-31 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | DAL | L | 20-37 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2024 | CIN 33 - WSH 38 | WSH |
Week 8 report — availability for Week 11 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 11.
CIN
| Andrei Iosivas | Injured Reserve | Iosivas (thumb) is making good progress in his rehab, Mike Petraglia of CLNSCincy.com reports. |
| Joe Giles-Harris | Questionable | questionable |
| Jordan Battle | Questionable | questionable |
| Erick All Jr. | Injured Reserve | Bengals head coach Zac Taylor confirmed Wednesday that All has been diagnosed with a torn ACL in his right knee and will require season-ending surgery, Jay Morrison of SI.com reports. |
| Kyle Dugger | Out | Dugger (quadriceps) won't play in Sunday's game against the Titans, Paul Dehner Jr. of The Athletic reports. |
| Ja'Marr Chase | Active | Chase (ankle) was a full participant in Thursday's practice, Mike Petraglia of CLNSCincy.com reports. |
| Barrett Carter | Active | Carter recorded nine tackles (three solo) and a pass defense during Sunday's 35-13 win over the Ravens. |
| Boye Mafe | Active | Mafe finished Sunday's 35-13 win over the Ravens with five tackles (three solo), including 1.5 sacks. |
| Bryan Cook | Active | Cook recorded nine tackles (six solo), including 0.5 sacks, during the Bengals' 35-13 win over the Ravens on Sunday. |
| Demetrius Knight Jr. | Active | Knight totaled eight tackles (two solo) and an interception during the Bengals' win over the Ravens on Sunday. |
| Dohnte Meyers | Active | Meyers failed to catch either of his two targets in Sunday's 35-13 win over the Ravens. |
| Cam Grandy | Active | The Bengals signed Grandy off the Vikings' practice squad Monday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports. |
| Connor Lew | Active | |
| Landon Robinson | Active | |
| Shemar Stewart | Active | |
| Myles Hinton | Active | |
| Russ Yeast | Active | |
| Mike Gesicki | Active | Gesicki caught his only target for a six-yard touchdown in Sunday's 35-13 win over the Ravens. |
| Samaje Perine | Active | Perine rushed four times for 16 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 35-13 win over the Ravens. |
| Drew Sample | Active | Sample caught both of his targets for 24 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 35-13 win over the Ravens. |
| Chase Brown | Active | Brown rushed 11 times for 39 yards and brought in four of five targets for 19 yards in the Bengals' 35-13 win over the Ravens on Sunday. |
| Evan McPherson | Active | McPherson did not attempt a field goal and made all five of his PATs in Sunday's 35-13 win over Baltimore. |
| Joe Burrow | Active | Burrow completed 22 of 30 passes for 292 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions while adding two rushes for 12 yards in the Bengals' 35-13 win over the Ravens on Sunday. |
| Tee Higgins | Active | Higgins secured six of seven targets for 148 yards and a touchdown in the Bengals' 35-13 win over the Ravens on Sunday. |
| Colbie Young | Active | Young (knee) was not listed on the Bengals' injury report Wednesday. |
WSH
| Treylon Burks | Questionable | Burks (foot) didn't practice Thursday. |
| Nick Allegretti | Questionable | questionable |
| John Bates | Questionable | Bates was a non-participant in Thursday's practice due to a shoulder injury. |
| Laremy Tunsil | Injured Reserve | Tunsil (triceps) could potentially return late in the season, Nicki Jhabvala of The Athletic reports. |
| Javon Kinlaw | Doubtful | Head coach Dan Quinn said Wednesday that Kinlaw (knee) is "unlikely" to play against the Eagles on Sunday, Zach Selby of the Commanders' official site reports. |
| Jer'Zhan Newton | Injured Reserve | The Commanders designated Newton (pectoral) for return to practice from their injured reserve list Wednesday. |
| Terry McLaurin | Injured Reserve | The Commanders placed McLaurin (knee) on injured reserve Wednesday, Zach Selby of the team's official site reports. |
| Jaylin Lane | Injured Reserve | Lane underwent surgery Oct. 9 to repair his fractured and dislocated ankle, and he is expected to be cleared for activities before OTAs, Tashan Reed of The Washington Post reports. |
| Charles Omenihu | Questionable | questionable |
| Stefon Diggs | Active | Diggs (hand/hamstring) was a full practice participant Thursday. |
| Van Jefferson | Active | The Commanders signed Jefferson to the active roster Wednesday, Zach Selby of the team's official site reports. |
| Marcus Mariota | Active | Mariota (knee) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Antonio Williams | Active | Coach Dan Quinn noted Monday that with Terry McLaurin (knee) out for the season, Stefon Diggs' workload isn't expected to change much, however others, notably Williams, should see added opportunities in McLaurin's looming absence, Nicki Jhabvala of The Athletic reports. |
| Sonny Styles | Active | Styles finished Monday's 23-17 loss to the 49ers with 13 tackles (seven solo) and one pass defense. |
| Drew Stevens | Active | Stevens made his only field-goal try and converted both of his extra-point attempts during Monday's 23-17 loss at San Francisco. |
| Austin Ekeler | Active | Ekeler logged a three-yard carry and caught both of his targets for four yards during the Commanders' 23-17 loss to the 49ers on Monday. |
| Dyami Brown | Active | Brown hauled in his only target for six yards during Monday's 23-17 loss versus San Francisco. |
| Jeremy McNichols | Active | McNichols accrued five rushes for 13 yards during Monday's 23-17 loss to the 49ers. |
| T.J. Maguranyanga | Active | |
| Isaac Yiadom | Active | |
| Tanoa Togiai | Active | |
| Fabian Moreau | Active | |
| Chig Okonkwo | Active | Okonkwo brought in all seven targets for 69 yards in the Commanders' 23-17 loss to the 49ers on Monday night. |
| Rachaad White | Active | White rushed seven times for 27 yards and brought in four of five targets for 30 yards and a touchdown in the Commanders' 23-17 loss to the 49ers on Monday night. |
| Jayden Daniels | Active | Daniels completed 29 of 40 passes for 300 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions while adding four rushes for 10 yards in the Commanders' 23-17 loss to the 49ers on Monday night. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
49.5°F, wind 11.2 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (CIN): ~411 miles, no time-zone change