Sun, Nov 29 at 1:00 PM ET · Huntington Bank Field
Expected score: LV 18.5 – CLE 27.7
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): LV 3.15 · CLE 1.47
Team ratings (Elo): LV 1414.2 vs CLE 1482.1. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
LV (3-4) — 34 days rest
Last 5: 1-4 (4 straight losses)
| Oct 25, 2026 | LAR | L | 21-35 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | BUF | L | 30-33 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | NE | L | 17-45 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | KC | L | 27-30 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | NO | W | 35-27 |
CLE (5-2) — 35 days rest
Last 5: 4-1 (2 straight wins)
| Oct 25, 2026 | TEN | W | 27-24 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | BAL | W | 13-10 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | NYJ | L | 12-17 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | PIT | W | 27-24 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | CAR | W | 21-18 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2024 | LV 20 - CLE 16 | LV |
| Nov 23, 2025 | LV 10 - CLE 24 | CLE |
Week 8 report — availability for Week 12 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 12.
LV
| Ian Thomas | Questionable | Thomas (shoulder) was a limited participant at the Raiders' practice Thursday. |
| Jack Bech | Injured Reserve | Bech (forearm) practiced fully Thursday. |
| Jackson Powers-Johnson | Questionable | questionable |
| Patrick Johnson | Questionable | Johnson (neck) did not participate in Wednesday's practice, Anthony Galaviz of The Fresno Bee reports. |
| Folorunso Fatukasi | Questionable | questionable |
| DJ Glaze | Questionable | questionable |
| Brock Bowers | Active | Bowers (calf) was a full practice participant Thursday. |
| Quay Walker | Active | |
| Jeremy Chinn | Active | Chinn finished Sunday's Week 7 loss to the Rams with seven tackles (three solo). He also recovered a fumble. |
| Nakobe Dean | Active | Dean produced 12 tackles and an interception in Sunday's loss to the Rams. |
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. | Active | The Raiders reinstated Thornton (hamstring) from injured reserve Tuesday. |
| Cody White | Active | White caught one of three targets for four yards in Sunday's 35-21 loss to the Rams. |
| Fernando Mendoza | Active | Mendoza did not appear in Sunday's 35-21 loss to the Rams. |
| Jalen Nailor | Active | Nailor caught two of five targets for 14 yards during Sunday's 35-21 loss to the Rams. |
| Kirk Cousins | Active | Head coach Klint Kubiak said that Cousins will remain the Raiders' starting quarterback heading into Sunday's game against the Jets, Paul Gutierrez of the team's official site reports. "There is no controversy," Kubiak said. "He is playing at a very high level." |
| Thomas Booker IV | Active | |
| Dalton Johnson | Active | |
| Tristin McCollum | Active | |
| Cian Slone | Active | |
| Bryce Cabeldue | Active | |
| Tre Tucker | Active | Tucker secured five of 12 targets for 103 yards and a touchdown in the Raiders' 35-21 loss to the Rams on Sunday. |
| Michael Mayer | Active | Mayer caught all three targets for 32 yards in Sunday's 35-21 loss to the Rams. |
| Mike Washington Jr. | Active | Washington rushed six times for 27 yards in Sunday's 35-21 loss to the Rams. |
| Ashton Jeanty | Active | Jeanty rushed eight times for 15 yards and brought in all eight targets for 61 yards and a touchdown in the Raiders' 35-21 loss to the Rams on Sunday. |
| Aidan O'Connell | Active | O'Connell (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the Raiders' emergency third quarterback against the Rams on Sunday. |
CLE
| Tytus Howard | Questionable | Howard (concussion) didn't participate in Cleveland's practice Wednesday. |
| Mike Hall Jr. | Questionable | Hall (ankle) was a limited participant at practice Wednesday. |
| Myles Harden | Questionable | Harden (hamstring) was a limited participant at practice Wednesday. |
| Jared Verse | Questionable | Verse (knee) did not participate at practice Wednesday. |
| Daniel Thomas | Questionable | questionable |
| Elgton Jenkins | Questionable | questionable |
| Mason Graham | Questionable | questionable |
| Grant Delpit | Questionable | questionable |
| Carson Schwesinger | Questionable | Schwesinger finished Sundays' 27-24 win over the Titans with eight tackles (four solo). |
| Kalia Davis | Injured Reserve | Davis (quadriceps) will spend the rest of the 2026 season on injured reserve after his 21-day practice window expired Tuesday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports. |
| Dylan Sampson | Active | Sampson (knee) was a full participant in Thursday's practice, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports. |
| Jerry Jeudy | Active | NFL reporter Jordan Schultz reports that the Browns are currently "less likely" to trade Jeudy before the Nov. 10 deadline. |
| Ronnie Hickman | Active | Hickman registered 10 tackles (six solo) and a fumble recovery during Sundays' 27-24 win over Tennessee. |
| Quincy Williams | Active | Williams finished Sunday's 27-24 win over the Titans with 10 tackles (seven solo). |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | Active | McLaughlin turned five kickoff returns into 117 yards during the Browns' 27-24 win over the Titans on Sunday. |
| Dillon Gabriel | Active | The Browns activated Gabriel (back) from injured reserve Monday. |
| Taylen Green | Active | |
| Parker Brailsford | Active | |
| Justin Jefferson | Active | |
| Noah Igbinoghene | Active | |
| Audric Estime | Active | |
| Denzel Boston | Active | Boston caught three of eight targets for 27 yards in Sunday's 27-24 win over the Titans. |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | Active | Fannin caught six of nine targets for 91 yards in Sunday's 27-24 win over the Titans. |
| Deshaun Watson | Active | Watson completed 25 of 36 passes for 308 yards with an interception in Sunday's 27-24 win over the Titans. He added 19 yards and a touchdown on three carries. |
| KC Concepcion | Active | Concepcion caught eight of 10 targets for 129 yards and added 23 yards on three carries in Sunday's 27-24 win over Tennessee. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
48.6°F, wind 13.4 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (LV): ~1,829 miles, 3h time-zone shift east