Sun, Nov 29 at 1:00 PM ET · Hard Rock Stadium
Expected score: NYJ 19.4 – MIA 26.8
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): NYJ 2.85 · MIA 1.54
Team ratings (Elo): NYJ 1401.2 vs MIA 1443.1. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
NYJ (2-5) — 35 days rest
Last 5: 1-4 (2 straight losses)
| Oct 25, 2026 | MIA | L | 25-28 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | NE | L | 19-26 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | CLE | W | 17-12 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | CHI | L | 12-23 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | DET | L | 24-31 |
MIA (1-5) — 35 days rest
Last 5: 1-4 (1 straight win)
| Oct 25, 2026 | NYJ | W | 28-25 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | CIN | L | 24-31 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | MIN | L | 10-15 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | KC | L | 10-24 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | SF | L | 13-35 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2024 | MIA 32 - NYJ 26 | MIA |
| Jan 5, 2025 | NYJ 32 - MIA 20 | NYJ |
| Sep 29, 2025 | MIA 27 - NYJ 21 | MIA |
| Dec 7, 2025 | NYJ 10 - MIA 34 | MIA |
| Oct 25, 2026 | NYJ 25 - MIA 28 | MIA |
Week 8 report — availability for Week 12 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 12.
NYJ
| Breece Hall | Questionable | Hall (quadriceps) remained limited at Thursday's practice. |
| Joseph Ossai | Doubtful | Ossai (ankle) didn't participate in the Jets' practice Wednesday, Rich Cimini of ESPN.com reports. |
| David Bailey | Questionable | Bailey didn't practice Wednesday due to a groin injury. |
| T'Vondre Sweat | Doubtful | Sweat (knee) is week-to-week and is unlikely to suit up for Sunday's game against the Raiders, Rich Cimini of ESPN.com reported Wednesday. |
| Dylan Parham | Questionable | questionable |
| Max Mitchell | Questionable | questionable |
| Kiko Mauigoa | Injured Reserve | The Jets placed Mauigoa (quadriceps) on injured reserve Saturday, Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic reports. |
| Braelon Allen | Active | Allen (ankle) was a full participant at Thursday's practice. |
| Kene Nwangwu | Active | Nwangwu was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Garrett Wilson | Active | Wilson said Wednesday that he won't ask to be traded from the Jets, Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic reports. |
| Demario Davis | Active | Davis finished Sunday's Week 7 loss to Miami with three tackles (two solo) and one defensed pass. |
| Jamien Sherwood | Active | Sherwood totaled eight tackles (four solo) and two defensed passes Sunday in a loss to Miami. |
| Dane Belton | Active | Belton registered nine tackles (six solo) in Sunday's loss to the Dolphins. |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | Active | Fitzpatrick posted 10 tackles (six solo) Sunday in a loss to Miami. |
| Tim Patrick | Active | Patrick did not garner a target during Sunday's 28-25 loss to the Dolphins. |
| Adonai Mitchell | Active | Mitchell failed to haul in any of his three targets during the Jets' 28-25 loss to the Dolphins on Sunday. |
| Isaiah Davis | Active | Davis logged a five-yard carry and caught all three of his targets for 49 yards during Sunday's 28-25 loss to Miami. He also added a tackle on special teams. |
| Jack Heflin | Active | |
| Jarvis Brownlee Jr. | Active | |
| Kenyon Sadiq | Active | Sadiq caught his lone target for six yards in Sunday's 28-25 loss to the Dolphins. |
| Jason Sanders | Active | Sanders went 1-for-2 on field-goal tries and made both of his extra-point attempts during Sunday's 28-25 loss to Miami. |
| Mason Taylor | Active | Taylor caught all five of his targets for 62 yards and two touchdowns while adding a two-point conversion in Sunday's 28-25 loss to the Dolphins. |
| Geno Smith | Active | Smith completed 23 of 30 passes for 287 yards, three touchdowns and one interception in Sunday's 28-25 loss to the Dolphins. He also rushed twice for no gain and threw a successful two-point conversion. |
| Omar Cooper Jr. | Active | Cooper caught all five of his targets for 115 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 28-25 loss to the Dolphins. |
| Will McDonald IV | Active |
MIA
| Jared Wayne | Questionable | Wayne (knee) was a limited practice participant Thursday, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. |
| Will Kacmarek | Questionable | Kacmarek (hamstring) practiced in a limited capacity Thursday, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. |
| JuJu Brents | Questionable | Brents (neck/concussion) was a limited practice participant Thursday, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. |
| Greg Dulcich | Questionable | Dulcich (ankle) remained limited at practice Thursday, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. |
| Malik Washington | Questionable | Washington (knee) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. |
| Kadyn Proctor | Questionable | Proctor sustained a concussion during Sunday's game against the Jets, Alain Poupart of SI.com reports. |
| Michael Taaffe | Questionable | questionable |
| Dante Trader Jr. | Questionable | questionable |
| Tucker Addington | Questionable | questionable |
| Reese Taylor | Questionable | questionable |
| Robert Beal Jr. | Active | Beal (hamstring) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Marcel Louis-Jacques of ESPN.com reports. |
| Willie Gay Jr. | Active | Gay (illness) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Marcel Louis-Jacques of ESPN.com reports. |
| Jaylen Wright | Active | Wright (quadriceps/foot) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Marcel Louis-Jacques of ESPN.com reports. |
| Jacob Rodriguez | Active | Rodriguez tallied four tackles (one solo) during Miami's win over the Jets on Sunday. |
| Jordyn Brooks | Active | Brooks posted nine tackles (five solo) during the Dolphins' win Sunday over the Jets. |
| Kevin Coleman Jr. | Active | Coleman did not catch his only target in the Dolphins' 28-25 win over the Jets on Sunday. |
| Chris Bell | Active | Bell caught three of his four targets for 25 yards in the Dolphins' 28-25 win over the Jets on Sunday. |
| Kaytron Allen | Active | Allen logged six snaps on special teams and didn't show up on the box score otherwise during Sunday's 28-25 win over the Jets. |
| Zane Gonzalez | Active | Gonzalez reverted to the Dolphins' practice squad Monday, per the NFL's transaction log. |
| Chukwuebuka Godrick | Active | |
| Marcellas Dial Jr. | Active | |
| Jalen Tolbert | Active | |
| Caleb Douglas | Active | Douglas (ankle) caught two of three targets for 70 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 28-25 win over the Jets. |
| Malik Willis | Active | Willis completed 14 of 21 passes for 208 yards and two touchdowns while rushing six times for 39 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 28-25 win over the Jets. |
| Ollie Gordon II | Active | Gordon rushed 25 times for 103 yards and a touchdown while catching one of three targets for no gain in Sunday's 28-25 win over the Jets. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
70.0°F, wind 3.1 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (NYJ): ~1,086 miles, no time-zone change