Sun, Nov 29 at 4:05 PM ET · EverBank Stadium
Expected score: TEN 14.1 – JAX 32.1
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): TEN 5.52 · JAX 1.22
Team ratings (Elo): TEN 1379.1 vs JAX 1576.0. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
TEN (1-6) — 35 days rest
Last 5: 1-4 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 25, 2026 | CLE | L | 24-27 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | IND | W | 26-20 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | HOU | L | 3-26 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | BAL | L | 18-24 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | NYG | L | 7-12 |
JAX (4-2) — 42 days rest
Last 5: 3-2 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 18, 2026 | HOU | L | 31-34 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | PHI | W | 19-17 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | CIN | W | 22-17 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | NE | W | 35-6 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | DEN | L | 13-20 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2024 | TEN 6 - JAX 10 | JAX |
| Dec 29, 2024 | JAX 20 - TEN 13 | JAX |
| Nov 30, 2025 | TEN 3 - JAX 25 | JAX |
| Jan 4, 2026 | JAX 41 - TEN 7 | JAX |
Week 8 report — availability for Week 12 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 12.
TEN
| Calvin Ridley | Questionable | Ridley (hip) was limited at practice Thursday, Jim Wyatt of the Titans' official site reports. |
| Tyjae Spears | Questionable | Spears (knee) isn't practicing Thursday, Terry McCormick of TitanInsider.com reports. |
| Carnell Tate | Questionable | Tate (shoulder) won't practice Thursday, Jim Wyatt of the Titans' official site reports. |
| John Franklin-Myers | Questionable | questionable |
| Tommy Townsend | Questionable | Titans head coach Robert Saleh said Monday that Townsend is still being evaluated after sustaining a left knee injury in Sunday's 27-24 loss to the Browns, Terry McCormick of TitanInsider.com reports. |
| Dorian Mausi | Injured Reserve | The Titans opened Mausi's 21-day practice window Wednesday, Jim Wyatt of the team's official website reports. |
| Jonah Laulu | Active | The Titans claimed Laulu off waivers from the Raiders on Wednesday, Jim Wyatt of the Titans' official site reports. |
| Amani Hooker | Active | Hooker posted five tackles (two solo) during Sunday's 27-24 loss to Cleveland. |
| Kevin Winston Jr. | Active | Winston logged 14 tackles (eight solo) during the Titans' 27-24 loss to the Browns on Sunday. |
| Anthony Hill Jr. | Active | Hill logged 12 tackles (five solo) and one forced fumble during the Titans' 27-24 loss to the Browns on Sunday. |
| Elic Ayomanor | Active | Ayomanor caught three of his seven targets for 44 yards in the Titans' 27-24 loss to the Browns on Sunday. |
| Jaylon Jones | Active | |
| Kylen Granson | Active | |
| Jackie Marshall | Active | |
| Nicholas Singleton | Active | |
| Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson | Active | |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | Active | Robinson caught four of seven targets for seven yards during Sunday's 27-24 loss to the Browns. |
| Gunnar Helm | Active | Helm caught three of four targets for 24 yards in Sunday's 27-24 loss to the Browns. |
| Cam Ward | Active | Ward completed 20 of 31 passes for 181 yards with an interception in Sunday's 27-24 loss to Cleveland. He added five yards on two carries. |
| Tony Pollard | Active | Pollard carried the ball 25 times for 129 yards and three touchdowns in Sunday's 27-24 loss to the Browns. He also caught all three of his targets for 26 yards. |
| Joey Slye | Active | Slye made his only field-goal attempt while going 3-for-3 on extra-point tries during Sunday's 27-24 loss to the Browns. |
| Tony Adams | Active | Adams (ankle) is active for Sunday's game against the Browns. |
| Timmy Horne | Active | The Titans signed Horne from the practice squad to the active roster Saturday, Jim Wyatt of the team's official site reports. |
| Alontae Taylor | Active | |
| Joshua Williams | Active | The Titans activated Williams (pectoral) from reserve/PUP on Saturday. |
JAX
| Antonio Johnson | Questionable | Johnson (ankle) sat out practice both Wednesday and Thursday. |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | Questionable | Allen (hamstring) was limited in practice Thursday. |
| Jakobi Meyers | Questionable | Meyers (hamstring) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Jahlani Tavai | Questionable | questionable |
| Ruke Orhorhoro | Questionable | questionable |
| Anton Harrison | Injured Reserve | Harrison was diagnosed with a torn ACL while undergoing a procedure on his right knee Thursday, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports. |
| Ross Matiscik | Questionable | questionable |
| Montaric Brown | Active | Brown (hamstring) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Foyesade Oluokun | Active | Oluokun logged eight tackles (four solo) in the Jaguars' 34-31 loss to the Texans in London on Sunday. |
| Josh Cameron | Active | Cameron didn't garner a target and recorded 46 kickoff-return yards during Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. |
| Cam Little | Active | Little made his sole field-goal attempt and all four of his PATs in the Jaguars' 34-31 loss to the Texans on Sunday in London. |
| Nate Boerkircher | Active | Boerkircher caught both of his targets for eight yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. |
| Jalen Huskey | Active | |
| Albert Regis | Active | |
| Wesley Williams | Active | |
| CJ Williams | Active | |
| Brenton Strange | Active | Strange caught five of seven targets for 44 yards during Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | Active | Rodriguez rushed 11 times for 55 yards while failing to reel in his only target during Sunday's 34-31 loss to Houston. |
| Travis Hunter | Active | Hunter caught all four of his targets for 59 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans in London. He also recorded three tackles and an interception. |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | Active | Thomas didn't haul in either of his two targets during Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans in London. |
| Parker Washington | Active | Washington caught four of 11 targets for 64 yards in Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. |
| Trevor Lawrence | Active | Lawrence completed 24 of 41 passes for 306 yards and four touchdowns with one interception in Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. He added 11 rushing yards on three carries. |
| Bhayshul Tuten | Active | Tuten carried the ball 12 times for 39 yards and caught all four of his targets for 48 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. |
| Ameer Abdullah | Active | |
| Eric Murray | Active | Murray (concussion) does not have an injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Texans. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
62.1°F, wind 3.8 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (TEN): ~501 miles, 1h time-zone shift east