Sun, Nov 29 at 4:25 PM ET · State Farm Stadium
Expected score: WSH 21.6 – ARI 24.6
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): WSH 2.28 · ARI 1.78
Team ratings (Elo): WSH 1428.6 vs ARI 1406.6. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
WSH (1-4-1) — 40 days rest
Last 5: 1-3-1 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 19, 2026 | SF | L | 17-23 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | NYG | T | 27-27 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | IND | L | 13-30 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | SEA | W | 33-31 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | DAL | L | 20-37 |
ARI (2-5) — 35 days rest
Last 5: 1-4 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 25, 2026 | DEN | L | 16-30 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | LAR | W | 18-16 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | DET | L | 21-45 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | NYG | L | 24-36 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | SF | L | 30-36 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2024 | ARI 14 - WSH 42 | WSH |
Week 8 report — availability for Week 12 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 12.
WSH
| Treylon Burks | Questionable | Burks (foot) didn't practice Thursday. |
| Nick Allegretti | Questionable | questionable |
| John Bates | Questionable | Bates was a non-participant in Thursday's practice due to a shoulder injury. |
| Laremy Tunsil | Injured Reserve | Tunsil (triceps) could potentially return late in the season, Nicki Jhabvala of The Athletic reports. |
| Javon Kinlaw | Doubtful | Head coach Dan Quinn said Wednesday that Kinlaw (knee) is "unlikely" to play against the Eagles on Sunday, Zach Selby of the Commanders' official site reports. |
| Jer'Zhan Newton | Injured Reserve | The Commanders designated Newton (pectoral) for return to practice from their injured reserve list Wednesday. |
| Terry McLaurin | Injured Reserve | The Commanders placed McLaurin (knee) on injured reserve Wednesday, Zach Selby of the team's official site reports. |
| Jaylin Lane | Injured Reserve | Lane underwent surgery Oct. 9 to repair his fractured and dislocated ankle, and he is expected to be cleared for activities before OTAs, Tashan Reed of The Washington Post reports. |
| Charles Omenihu | Questionable | questionable |
| Stefon Diggs | Active | Diggs (hand/hamstring) was a full practice participant Thursday. |
| Van Jefferson | Active | The Commanders signed Jefferson to the active roster Wednesday, Zach Selby of the team's official site reports. |
| Marcus Mariota | Active | Mariota (knee) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Antonio Williams | Active | Coach Dan Quinn noted Monday that with Terry McLaurin (knee) out for the season, Stefon Diggs' workload isn't expected to change much, however others, notably Williams, should see added opportunities in McLaurin's looming absence, Nicki Jhabvala of The Athletic reports. |
| Sonny Styles | Active | Styles finished Monday's 23-17 loss to the 49ers with 13 tackles (seven solo) and one pass defense. |
| Drew Stevens | Active | Stevens made his only field-goal try and converted both of his extra-point attempts during Monday's 23-17 loss at San Francisco. |
| Austin Ekeler | Active | Ekeler logged a three-yard carry and caught both of his targets for four yards during the Commanders' 23-17 loss to the 49ers on Monday. |
| Dyami Brown | Active | Brown hauled in his only target for six yards during Monday's 23-17 loss versus San Francisco. |
| Jeremy McNichols | Active | McNichols accrued five rushes for 13 yards during Monday's 23-17 loss to the 49ers. |
| T.J. Maguranyanga | Active | |
| Isaac Yiadom | Active | |
| Tanoa Togiai | Active | |
| Fabian Moreau | Active | |
| Chig Okonkwo | Active | Okonkwo brought in all seven targets for 69 yards in the Commanders' 23-17 loss to the 49ers on Monday night. |
| Rachaad White | Active | White rushed seven times for 27 yards and brought in four of five targets for 30 yards and a touchdown in the Commanders' 23-17 loss to the 49ers on Monday night. |
| Jayden Daniels | Active | Daniels completed 29 of 40 passes for 300 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions while adding four rushes for 10 yards in the Commanders' 23-17 loss to the 49ers on Monday night. |
ARI
| Mack Wilson Sr. | Questionable | Wilson (knee) was limited in Thursday's practice, Theo Mackie of The Arizona Republic reports. |
| Michael Wilson | Questionable | Wilson (ribs) was a limited practice participant Thursday, Theo Mackie of The Arizona Republic reports. |
| Tyler Allgeier | Questionable | Allgeier (toe) practiced in a limited capacity Thursday, Theo Mackie of The Arizona Republic reports. |
| Jeremiyah Love | Questionable | Love (ankle) was a limited practice participant Thursday, Theo Mackie of The Arizona Republic reports. |
| Hjalte Froholdt | Questionable | questionable |
| Andrew Wingard | Questionable | Wingard (knee) was a limited participant at practice Wednesday, Darren Urban of the Cardinals' official site reports. |
| Elijah Wilkinson | Questionable | questionable |
| Jalen Brooks | Injured Reserve | The Cardinals placed Brooks (wrist) on injured reserve Tuesday. |
| Max Melton | Questionable | questionable |
| Walter Nolen III | Questionable | questionable |
| Jon Gaines II | Questionable | questionable |
| Tip Reiman | Out | Head coach Mike LaFleur stated he's "not too sure" if Reiman (ankle) will play this season, Dani Sureck of the Cardinals' official site reports. |
| James Conner | Injured Reserve | When asked Monday if Conner (foot) will play this season, coach Mike LaFleur said "potentially," Dani Sureck of the Cardinals' official site reports. |
| Carson Beck | Active | Beck (back) practiced in full Thursday, Theo Mackie of The Arizona Republic reports. |
| Kei'Trel Clark | Active | |
| Zaven Collins | Active | |
| Budda Baker | Active | Baker logged two tackles (one solo) during Sundays' 30-16 loss to Denver. |
| Jack Gibbens | Active | Gibbens recorded seven tackles (four solo) in a 30-16 loss to the Broncos on Sunday. |
| Elijah Higgins | Active | Higgins caught all three of his targets for 17 yards and made one tackle on kick coverage in the Cardinals' 30-16 loss to the Broncos on Sunday. |
| Kendrick Bourne | Active | Bourne caught three of six targets for nine yards during Sunday's 30-16 loss versus the Broncos. |
| Albert Reese IV | Active | |
| Bam Knight | Active | Knight accrued seven carries for 48 yards and reeled in three of five targets for 15 yards during Sunday's 30-16 defeat to the Broncos. |
| Jacoby Brissett | Active | Brissett completed 27 of 48 passes for 272 yards and a touchdown while rushing seven times for 16 yards in Sunday's 30-16 loss to the Broncos. |
| Chad Ryland | Active | Ryland went 3-for-3 on field-goal tries and converted his only extra-point attempt during Sunday's 30-16 loss to Denver. |
| Trey McBride | Active | McBride caught 10 of 13 targets for 111 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 30-16 loss to the Broncos. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
n/a — indoor venue
Travel (WSH): ~1,995 miles, 2h time-zone shift west