Mon, Nov 30 at 8:15 PM ET · Raymond James Stadium
Expected score: CAR 21.5 – TB 24.7
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): CAR 2.31 · TB 1.76
Team ratings (Elo): CAR 1475.5 vs TB 1457.9. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
CAR (3-4) — 32 days rest
Last 5: 2-3 (2 straight losses)
| Oct 29, 2026 | GB | L | 19-27 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | TB | L | 13-43 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | PHI | W | 25-14 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | DET | W | 32-26 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | CLE | L | 18-21 |
TB (2-5) — 36 days rest
Last 5: 2-3 (1 straight win)
| Oct 25, 2026 | CAR | W | 43-13 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | PIT | L | 19-26 |
| Oct 8, 2026 | DAL | W | 24-16 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | GB | L | 14-17 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | MIN | L | 16-23 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2024 | CAR 23 - TB 26 | TB |
| Dec 29, 2024 | TB 48 - CAR 14 | TB |
| Dec 21, 2025 | CAR 23 - TB 20 | CAR |
| Jan 3, 2026 | TB 16 - CAR 14 | TB |
| Oct 25, 2026 | CAR 13 - TB 43 | TB |
Week 8 report — availability for Week 12 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 12.
CAR
| Corey Bullock | Questionable | Bullock (quadriceps) exited Thursday's 27-19 loss to Green Bay and did not return, Sheena Quick of Fox Sports Radio 1340 reports. |
| Will Lee III | Questionable | Lee is dealing with a hamstring injury and is doubtful to return to Thursday's Week 8 matchup against Green Bay, Joe Person of The Athletic reports. |
| Akayleb Evans | Injured Reserve | Evans (triceps) was placed on injured reserve by the Panthers on Thursday, Darin Gantt of the team's official website reports. |
| Bobby Brown III | Out | Brown (hand) is inactive for Thursday night's matchup against the Packers, Darin Gantt of the Panthers' official website reports. |
| Haynes King | Out | King (coach's decision) is inactive but operating as the Panthers' emergency No. 3 quarterback against the Packers on Thursday night, Darin Gantt of the team's official website reports. |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | Out | Sanders (coach's decision) is inactive for Thursday night's matchup with Green Bay, Darin Gantt of the team's official website reports. |
| AJ Dillon | Out | Dillon (coach's decision) is inactive for Thursday night's contest against the Packers, Darin Gantt of the team's official website reports. |
| Torricelli Simpkins III | Out | Simpkins (ankle) has been ruled out for Thursday's game against the Packers. |
| Damien Lewis | Out | Lewis (knee) has been ruled out for Thursday's game against the Packers. |
| Jaelan Phillips | Out | Phillips (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Thursday night's game against the Packers. |
| Taylor Moton | Injured Reserve | The Panthers placed Moton (lower leg) on injured reserve Monday. |
| Ryan Fitzgerald | Active | Fitzgerald made both field-goal attempts and converted his only extra-point try in Thursday's 27-19 loss to Green Bay. |
| Jalen Coker | Active | Coker secured two of five targets for 37 yards and a touchdown in the Panthers' 27-19 loss to the Packers on Thursday. He also lost a fumble. |
| Bryce Young | Active | Young completed 23 of 41 passes for 209 yards with one touchdown and one interception in the Panthers' 27-19 loss to the Packers on Thursday. |
| Chuba Hubbard | Active | Hubbard rushed 22 times for 81 yards and a touchdown and brought in seven of eight targets for 38 yards in the Panthers' 27-19 loss to the Packers on Thursday. |
| Tetairoa McMillan | Active | McMillan brought in six of 11 targets for 57 yards in the Panthers' 27-19 loss to the Packers on Thursday. |
| Devin Lloyd | Active | Lloyd posted four tackles in Sunday's loss to the Buccaneers. |
| Bobby Okereke | Active | Okereke tallied 10 tackles (seven solo) and a defensed pass in Sunday's loss to Tampa Bay. |
| John Metchie III | Active | Metchie caught two passes for 20 yards during Sunday's 43-13 defeat versus the Buccaneers. |
| Mitchell Evans | Active | Evans gathered in both targets for 39 yards during Sunday's 43-13 loss versus Tampa Bay. |
| Trevor Etienne | Active | Etienne posted six carries for eight yards, reeled in both targets for 17 yards and compiled 69 kickoff-return yards during Sunday's 43-13 defeat to the Buccaneers. |
| Tommy Tremble | Active | Tremble hauled in one of two targets for eight yards during Sunday's 43-13 loss to the Buccaneers. |
| TeRah Edwards | Active | |
| Sam Hecht | Active | |
| Stone Forsythe | Active |
TB
| Luke Goedeke | Questionable | Goedeke (calf) did not participate at the Buccaneers' practice Thursday. |
| Emeka Egbuka | Questionable | Egbuka (concussion) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Kenny Gainwell | Questionable | Gainwell (hip) was a limited participant at Thursday's practice, Scott Smith of the Buccaneers' official site reports. |
| Josh Hayes | Injured Reserve | Hayes suffered a small setback in his recovery from a knee injury, Greg Auman of Fox Sports reports. |
| Christian Rozeboom | Injured Reserve | Rozeboom (finger) was placed on injured reserve by the Buccaneers on Thursday, Scott Smith of the team's official website reports. |
| Josiah Trotter | Active | Trotter (illness) was a full participant at the Buccaneers' practice Thursday. |
| Yaya Diaby | Active | |
| Antoine Winfield Jr. | Active | Winfield (ribs) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers' official site reports. |
| Baker Mayfield | Active | Mayfield, who was a full practice participant Wednesday, said that he's still taking a day-by-day approach when it comes to wearing a glove to protect his dislocated right thumb, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers' official site reports. |
| Tykee Smith | Active | Smith posted seven tackles (one solo), an interception and a blocked extra-point attempt Sunday in a 43-13 Week 7 win against Carolina. |
| Ted Hurst III | Active | Hurst didn't record a catch on one target in Sunday's 43-13 win over the Panthers. |
| Jalon Daniels | Active | Daniels was back in his primary reserve role behind Baker Mayfield in Sunday's 43-13 win over the Panthers. |
| Billy Schrauth | Active | |
| DeMonte Capehart | Active | |
| Ayden Garnes | Active | |
| Cade Otton | Active | Otton failed to catch his only target during Sunday's 43-13 win over the Panthers. |
| Sean Tucker | Active | Tucker rushed seven times for 52 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 43-13 win against Carolina. |
| Tez Johnson | Active | Johnson caught both of his targets for 33 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 43-13 win over the Panthers. |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | Active | Godwin secured four of five targets for 27 yards in the Buccaneers' 43-13 win over the Panthers on Sunday. |
| Chase McLaughlin | Active | McLaughlin made both of his field-goal tries while going 5-for-5 on PATs during Sunday's 43-13 win over the Panthers. |
| Bucky Irving | Active | Irving rushed 24 times for 106 yards and two touchdowns while bringing in one of two targets for four yards in the Buccaneers' 43-13 win over the Panthers on Sunday. He also committed a fumble that stayed with Tampa Bay. |
| Zyon McCollum | Active | McCollum (illness) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Panthers, Greg Auman of Fox Sports reports. |
| David Sills V | Active | Sills (hamstring) was activated from injured reserve by the Buccaneers on Thursday, Scott Smith of the team's official website reports. |
| Calijah Kancey | Active | |
| Benjamin Morrison | Active | Morrison (quadriceps) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
61.9°F, wind 0.0 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (CAR): ~507 miles, no time-zone change