Thu, Dec 3 at 8:15 PM ET · SoFi Stadium
Expected score: KC 19.1 – LAR 27.1
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): KC 2.96 · LAR 1.51
Team ratings (Elo): KC 1496.2 vs LAR 1547.9. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
KC (5-1) — 39 days rest
Last 5: 4-1 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 25, 2026 | SEA | L | 3-20 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | LAC | W | 22-6 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | LV | W | 30-27 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | MIA | W | 24-10 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | IND | W | 33-30 |
LAR (3-4) — 39 days rest
Last 5: 2-3 (1 straight win)
| Oct 25, 2026 | LV | W | 35-21 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | ARI | L | 16-18 |
| Oct 12, 2026 | BUF | L | 34-37 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | PHI | W | 24-20 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | DEN | L | 26-30 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| No meetings in coverage period | ||
Week 8 report — availability for Week 13 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 13.
KC
| Mansoor Delane | Questionable | Delane (shoulder) did not practice Thursday. |
| Rashee Rice | Questionable | Rice (hamstring/knee) remained a limited participant at Thursday's practice. |
| Travis Kelce | Questionable | Kelce (ankle) was listed as a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Jaylon Moore | Questionable | Moore (concussion) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Omarr Norman-Lott | Out | The Chiefs designated Norman-Lott (knee) to return from injured reserve Wednesday. |
| L'Jarius Sneed | Questionable | questionable |
| Brashard Smith | Injured Reserve | The Chiefs placed Smith (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday. |
| Cyrus Allen | Active | Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said Wednesday that Allen will "get a little bit more [snaps]" during Sunday's game against the Broncos, Nate Taylor of ESPN.com reports. |
| Harrison Butker | Active | Head coach Andy Reid said Wednesday that Butker will "probably" serve as the Chiefs' kicker in Sunday's game against the Broncos, Sam McDowell of The Kansas City Star reports. |
| Chamarri Conner | Active | Conner finished Sunday's 20-3 loss to Seattle with seven tackles (two solo). |
| Nohl Williams | Active | Williams finished Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks with 10 tackles (four solo) and one interception. |
| Nick Bolton | Active | Bolton registered 11 tackles (six solo) during the Chiefs' 20-3 loss to the Seahawks on Sunday. |
| Drue Tranquill | Active | Tranquill finished Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks with 12 tackles (four solo). |
| Andrew Armstrong | Active | Armstrong caught one of two targets for three yards during Sunday night's 20-3 loss to Seattle. |
| Noah Gray | Active | Gray caught three passes on as many targets for 44 yards during Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks. |
| Emmett Johnson | Active | Johnson caught two of three passes for 17 yards and returned three kickoffs for 81 yards during Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks. He also added two tackles on special teams. |
| Ben VanSumeren | Active | |
| Jack Pyburn | Active | |
| Jadon Canady | Active | |
| Xavier Worthy | Active | Worthy caught three of six targets for 11 yards in Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks. |
| Patrick Mahomes | Active | Mahomes completed 19 of 33 passes for 165 yards, no touchdowns and one interception in Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks. He added two rushing attempts for 14 yards. |
| Kenneth Walker III | Active | Walker rushed 14 times for 36 yards while catching four of five targets for 21 yards in Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks. |
| Garrett Nussmeier | Active | Nussmeier (coach's decision) is inactive as the emergency third quarterback for Sunday night's game against the Seahawks. |
| Cooper McDonald | Active | The Chiefs activated McDonald (knee) from injured reserve Saturday. |
| Jaydn Ott | Active | The Chiefs signed Ott from the practice squad to the active roster Saturday. |
LAR
| Colby Parkinson | Questionable | Parkinson (ribs) didn't practice Thursday, Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com reports. |
| Nate Landman | Questionable | Landman (concussion) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Stu Jackson of the Rams' official site reports. |
| Trent McDuffie | Questionable | McDuffie (groin) was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice, Stu Jackson of the Rams' official site reports. |
| Coleman Shelton | Questionable | questionable |
| Joe Cardona | Questionable | questionable |
| Terrance Ferguson | Injured Reserve | Ferguson (ankle) won't return to practice this week, Greg Beacham of the Associated Press reports. |
| Davante Adams | Injured Reserve | Head coach Sean McVay said Wednesday that Adams had successful surgery on his left hamstring, and the Rams are hopeful that the wide receiver will be able to return on the early side of his 6-to-10-week recovery timetable, Adam Grosbard of The Orange County Register reports. |
| Myles Garrett | Injured Reserve | Head coach Sean McVay said Wednesday that the Rams won't open Garrett's (knee) practice window this week, Greg Beacham of the Associated Press reports. |
| Kam Curl | Active | Curl logged four tackles (two solo) during the Rams' 35-21 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Quentin Lake | Active | Lake finished Sunday's 35-21 win over the Raiders with seven tackles (four solo). |
| Jordan Whittington | Active | Whittington wasn't targeted in Sunday's 35-21 win over the Raiders. |
| Tutu Atwell | Active | Atwell wasn't targeted in Sunday's 35-21 win over the Raiders. |
| Konata Mumpfield | Active | Mumpfield caught one of two targets for 15 yards during Sunday's 35-21 win at Las Vegas. |
| Tyler Higbee | Active | Higbee caught two of three targets for 14 yards during Sunday's 35-21 win over the Raiders. |
| Bill Murray | Active | |
| Max Klare | Active | |
| Keagen Trost | Active | |
| Matthew Stafford | Active | Stafford completed 23 of 29 passes for 195 yards with three touchdowns and one interception and rushed three times for minus-3 yards in the Rams' 35-21 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Blake Corum | Active | Corum rushed 17 times for 93 yards and a touchdown and brought in his only target for eight yards in the Rams' 35-21 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Davis Allen | Active | Allen caught four of five targets for 20 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 35-21 win over the Raiders. |
| Kyren Williams | Active | Williams rushed 16 times for 99 yards and a touchdown and brought in both targets for 22 yards in the Rams' 35-21 win over the Raiders on Sunday. He also lost a fumble. |
| Puka Nacua | Active | Nacua brought in eight of 10 targets for 68 yards and a touchdown and rushed twice for 10 yards in the Rams' 35-21 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Brandon McManus | Active | McManus did not attempt a field goal and went 5-for-5 on extra-point tries during Sunday's 35-21 win over the Raiders. |
| Jaylen Watson | Active | |
| Ty Simpson | Active | Simpson (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the Rams' emergency third quarterback against the Raiders on Sunday, Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com reports. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
76.8°F, wind 4.7 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (KC): ~1,366 miles, 2h time-zone shift west