Sun, Dec 6 at 1:00 PM ET · Huntington Bank Field
Expected score: CIN 21.0 – CLE 25.2
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): CIN 2.42 · CLE 1.71
Team ratings (Elo): CIN 1486.4 vs CLE 1482.1. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
CIN (4-2) — 42 days rest
Last 5: 3-2 (2 straight wins)
| Oct 25, 2026 | BAL | W | 35-13 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | MIA | W | 31-24 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | JAX | L | 17-22 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | PIT | L | 27-30 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | HOU | W | 20-6 |
CLE (5-2) — 42 days rest
Last 5: 4-1 (2 straight wins)
| Oct 25, 2026 | TEN | W | 27-24 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | BAL | W | 13-10 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | NYJ | L | 12-17 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | PIT | W | 27-24 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | CAR | W | 21-18 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2024 | CLE 14 - CIN 21 | CIN |
| Dec 22, 2024 | CIN 24 - CLE 6 | CIN |
| Sep 7, 2025 | CLE 16 - CIN 17 | CIN |
| Jan 4, 2026 | CIN 18 - CLE 20 | CLE |
Week 8 report — availability for Week 13 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 13.
CIN
| Andrei Iosivas | Injured Reserve | Iosivas (thumb) is making good progress in his rehab, Mike Petraglia of CLNSCincy.com reports. |
| Joe Giles-Harris | Questionable | questionable |
| Jordan Battle | Questionable | questionable |
| Erick All Jr. | Injured Reserve | Bengals head coach Zac Taylor confirmed Wednesday that All has been diagnosed with a torn ACL in his right knee and will require season-ending surgery, Jay Morrison of SI.com reports. |
| Kyle Dugger | Out | Dugger (quadriceps) won't play in Sunday's game against the Titans, Paul Dehner Jr. of The Athletic reports. |
| Ja'Marr Chase | Active | Chase (ankle) was a full participant in Thursday's practice, Mike Petraglia of CLNSCincy.com reports. |
| Barrett Carter | Active | Carter recorded nine tackles (three solo) and a pass defense during Sunday's 35-13 win over the Ravens. |
| Boye Mafe | Active | Mafe finished Sunday's 35-13 win over the Ravens with five tackles (three solo), including 1.5 sacks. |
| Bryan Cook | Active | Cook recorded nine tackles (six solo), including 0.5 sacks, during the Bengals' 35-13 win over the Ravens on Sunday. |
| Demetrius Knight Jr. | Active | Knight totaled eight tackles (two solo) and an interception during the Bengals' win over the Ravens on Sunday. |
| Dohnte Meyers | Active | Meyers failed to catch either of his two targets in Sunday's 35-13 win over the Ravens. |
| Cam Grandy | Active | The Bengals signed Grandy off the Vikings' practice squad Monday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports. |
| Connor Lew | Active | |
| Landon Robinson | Active | |
| Shemar Stewart | Active | |
| Myles Hinton | Active | |
| Russ Yeast | Active | |
| Mike Gesicki | Active | Gesicki caught his only target for a six-yard touchdown in Sunday's 35-13 win over the Ravens. |
| Samaje Perine | Active | Perine rushed four times for 16 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 35-13 win over the Ravens. |
| Drew Sample | Active | Sample caught both of his targets for 24 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 35-13 win over the Ravens. |
| Chase Brown | Active | Brown rushed 11 times for 39 yards and brought in four of five targets for 19 yards in the Bengals' 35-13 win over the Ravens on Sunday. |
| Evan McPherson | Active | McPherson did not attempt a field goal and made all five of his PATs in Sunday's 35-13 win over Baltimore. |
| Joe Burrow | Active | Burrow completed 22 of 30 passes for 292 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions while adding two rushes for 12 yards in the Bengals' 35-13 win over the Ravens on Sunday. |
| Tee Higgins | Active | Higgins secured six of seven targets for 148 yards and a touchdown in the Bengals' 35-13 win over the Ravens on Sunday. |
| Colbie Young | Active | Young (knee) was not listed on the Bengals' injury report Wednesday. |
CLE
| Tytus Howard | Questionable | Howard (concussion) didn't participate in Cleveland's practice Wednesday. |
| Mike Hall Jr. | Questionable | Hall (ankle) was a limited participant at practice Wednesday. |
| Myles Harden | Questionable | Harden (hamstring) was a limited participant at practice Wednesday. |
| Jared Verse | Questionable | Verse (knee) did not participate at practice Wednesday. |
| Daniel Thomas | Questionable | questionable |
| Elgton Jenkins | Questionable | questionable |
| Mason Graham | Questionable | questionable |
| Grant Delpit | Questionable | questionable |
| Carson Schwesinger | Questionable | Schwesinger finished Sundays' 27-24 win over the Titans with eight tackles (four solo). |
| Kalia Davis | Injured Reserve | Davis (quadriceps) will spend the rest of the 2026 season on injured reserve after his 21-day practice window expired Tuesday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports. |
| Dylan Sampson | Active | Sampson (knee) was a full participant in Thursday's practice, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports. |
| Jerry Jeudy | Active | NFL reporter Jordan Schultz reports that the Browns are currently "less likely" to trade Jeudy before the Nov. 10 deadline. |
| Ronnie Hickman | Active | Hickman registered 10 tackles (six solo) and a fumble recovery during Sundays' 27-24 win over Tennessee. |
| Quincy Williams | Active | Williams finished Sunday's 27-24 win over the Titans with 10 tackles (seven solo). |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | Active | McLaughlin turned five kickoff returns into 117 yards during the Browns' 27-24 win over the Titans on Sunday. |
| Dillon Gabriel | Active | The Browns activated Gabriel (back) from injured reserve Monday. |
| Taylen Green | Active | |
| Parker Brailsford | Active | |
| Justin Jefferson | Active | |
| Noah Igbinoghene | Active | |
| Audric Estime | Active | |
| Denzel Boston | Active | Boston caught three of eight targets for 27 yards in Sunday's 27-24 win over the Titans. |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | Active | Fannin caught six of nine targets for 91 yards in Sunday's 27-24 win over the Titans. |
| Deshaun Watson | Active | Watson completed 25 of 36 passes for 308 yards with an interception in Sunday's 27-24 win over the Titans. He added 19 yards and a touchdown on three carries. |
| KC Concepcion | Active | Concepcion caught eight of 10 targets for 129 yards and added 23 yards on three carries in Sunday's 27-24 win over Tennessee. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
48.6°F, wind 13.4 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (CIN): ~223 miles, no time-zone change