Sun, Dec 6 at 1:00 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Expected score: DET 22.0 – ATL 24.2
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): DET 2.21 · ATL 1.83
Team ratings (Elo): DET 1522.8 vs ATL 1490.8. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
DET (4-2) — 41 days rest
Last 5: 3-2 (2 straight wins)
| Oct 25, 2026 | GB | W | 20-17 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | ARI | W | 45-21 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | CAR | L | 26-32 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | NYJ | W | 31-24 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | BUF | L | 31-41 |
ATL (3-4) — 42 days rest
Last 5: 3-2 (1 straight win)
| Oct 25, 2026 | SF | W | 29-20 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | CHI | L | 23-31 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | BAL | L | 23-30 |
| Oct 5, 2026 | NO | W | 45-24 |
| Sep 24, 2026 | GB | W | 35-14 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| No meetings in coverage period | ||
Week 8 report — availability for Week 13 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 13.
DET
| Kerby Joseph | Out | Joseph (knee) was limited in Thursday's practice. |
| Ennis Rakestraw Jr. | Questionable | Rakestraw (ankle) is not believed to be dealing with a major injury after he was forced to exit Sunday's win over the Packers, Nolan Bianchi of The Detroit News reports. |
| Ben Bartch | Injured Reserve | The Lions placed Bartch (foot) on injured reserve Friday. |
| Devin White | Injured Reserve | The Lions placed White (forearm) on injured reserve Friday. |
| Tom Kennedy | Injured Reserve | The Lions placed Kennedy (knee) on injured reserve Friday. |
| Tyleik Williams | Active | |
| Jacob Saylors | Active | |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | Active | St. Brown (ankle) practiced in full Thursday. |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Active | Gibbs (shoulder) practiced fully Thursday. |
| Jack Campbell | Active | Campbell tallied 11 tackles (eight solo) during the Lions' 20-17 win over the Packers on Sunday. |
| Brian Branch | Active | Branch recorded four tackles (one solo) and an interception during Sunday's 20-17 win over Green Bay. |
| Isaac TeSlaa | Active | TeSlaa caught one of his two targets for 10 yards in the Lions' 20-17 win over the Packers on Sunday. |
| Jackson Meeks | Active | |
| Bishop Fitzgerald | Active | |
| Ahmed Hassanein | Active | |
| Mekhi Wingo | Active | |
| Seth McLaughlin | Active | |
| Sam LaPorta | Active | LaPorta caught one of two targets for 18 yards in Sunday's 20-17 win over the Packers. |
| Jameson Williams | Active | Williams caught five of nine targets for 91 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 20-17 win over Green Bay. |
| Jared Goff | Active | Goff completed 22 of 32 passes for 303 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 20-17 win over the Packers. |
| Jake Bates | Active | Bates went 2-for-2 on field-goal attempts and made both of his PATs during Sunday's 20-17 win over the Packers. |
| Cade Mays | Active | Mays (wrist) was activated from injured reserve Saturday and no longer has an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Packers. |
| Rock Ya-Sin | Active | Ya-Sin (hamstring) does not have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Packers. |
| DeAndre Carter | Active | The Lions signed Carter to the active roster Thursday. |
| DJ Wonnum | Active |
ATL
| A.J. Terrell Jr. | Questionable | Terrell (groin) was limited during Thursday's practice, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports. |
| C.J. Henderson | Questionable | Henderson (groin) was limited in Thursday's practice, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports. |
| Kendal Daniels | Questionable | Daniels (Achilles) was limited in Thursday's practice, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports. |
| Divine Deablo | Questionable | Deablo (forearm) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports. |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | Questionable | Zaccheaus (shoulder) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports. |
| Cameron Thomas | Questionable | questionable |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | Questionable | Robinson (hamstring) did not practice Thursday for the second day in a row, Will McFadden of the Falcons' official site reports. |
| Charles Snowden | Questionable | questionable |
| Jawaan Taylor | Questionable | questionable |
| LaCale London | Questionable | questionable |
| Samson Ebukam | Questionable | questionable |
| Avieon Terrell | Questionable | questionable |
| Billy Bowman Jr. | Questionable | questionable |
| Xavier Watts | Active | Watts notched seven tackles (three solo) and forced a fumble Sunday in a 29-20 Week 7 victory against the 49ers. |
| Jessie Bates III | Active | Bates registered nine tackles (two solo), two defensed passes (including an interception) and one forced fumble Sunday in a 29-20 victory over San Francisco. |
| Harold Perkins Jr. | Active | Perkins tallied nine tackles (four solo) in Sunday's 29-20 Week 7 win over the 49ers. |
| Zachariah Branch | Active | Branch brought in one of two targets for nine yards, logged an eight-yard carry and returned his lone kickoff for 61 yards during the Falcons' 29-20 win over the 49ers on Sunday. |
| Austin Hooper | Active | Hooper caught both of his targets for 21 yards in the Falcons' 29-20 win over the 49ers on Sunday. |
| Jahan Dotson | Active | Dotson caught one pass on three targets for six yards during Sundays' 29-20 win over San Francisco. |
| Nick Muse | Active | Muse caught both of his targets for two yards and a touchdown in the Falcons' 29-20 win over the 49ers on Sunday. |
| Khalil Herbert | Active | Herbert reverted to the Falcons' practice squad Monday, per the NFL's transaction log. |
| Jack Strand | Active | |
| Andy Dalton | Active | |
| Kyle Pitts Sr. | Active | Pitts brought in all five targets for 22 yards and a touchdown in the Falcons' 29-20 win over the 49ers on Sunday. |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Active | Penix completed 25 of 34 passes for 213 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions and added five carries for minus-1 yard in the Falcons' 29-20 win over the 49ers on Sunday. He also recovered a fumble. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
n/a — indoor venue
Travel (DET): ~598 miles, no time-zone change