Sun, Dec 6 at 1:00 PM ET · Caesars Superdome
Expected score: GB 23.5 – NO 22.7
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): GB 1.94 · NO 2.07
Team ratings (Elo): GB 1521.5 vs NO 1445.2. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
GB (5-3) — 37 days rest
Last 5: 4-1 (1 straight win)
| Oct 29, 2026 | CAR | W | 27-19 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | DET | L | 17-20 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | DAL | W | 23-13 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | CHI | W | 31-7 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | TB | W | 17-14 |
NO (2-5) — 42 days rest
Last 5: 1-4 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 25, 2026 | PIT | L | 10-16 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | NYG | W | 34-27 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | MIN | L | 13-23 |
| Oct 5, 2026 | ATL | L | 24-45 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | LV | L | 27-35 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2024 | GB 34 - NO 0 | GB |
Week 8 report — availability for Week 13 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 13.
GB
| Christian Watson | Questionable | Watson said he suffered a broken rib in Thursday night's 27-19 win over the Panthers, Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com reports. |
| Kaleb Johnson | Out | Johnson (coach's decision) is inactive for Thursday's game against the Panthers, Mike Spofford of the team's official site reports. |
| Jonnu Smith | Out | Smith (coach's decision) is inactive for Thursday's game against the Panthers Mike Spofford of the team's official site reports. |
| Sean Rhyan | Out | inactive |
| Travis Glover | Out | inactive |
| Donovan Jennings | Out | inactive |
| Zaire Franklin | Out | inactive |
| Micah Parsons | Out | Packers head coach Matt LaFleur said Tuesday that Parsons (knee) has "a chance" to resume practicing next week, Matt Schneidman of The Athletic reports. |
| MarShawn Lloyd | Active | Lloyd rushed three times for seven yards and brought in his only target for nine yards in the Packers' 27-19 win over the Panthers on Thursday. |
| Trey Smack | Active | Smack converted three of four extra-point tries and didn't attempt a field goal Thursday in a 27-19 win over Carolina. |
| Jordan Love | Active | Love completed 30 of 41 passes for 288 yards with three touchdowns and one interception and recovered a fumble in the Packers' 27-19 win over the Panthers on Thursday. |
| Tucker Kraft | Active | Kraft secured all six targets for 53 yards and a touchdown in the Packers' 27-19 win over the Panthers on Thursday. |
| Matthew Golden | Active | Golden brought in seven of 13 targets for 79 yards and a touchdown in the Packers' 27-19 win over the Panthers on Thursday. |
| Josh Jacobs | Active | Jacobs rushed 21 times for 39 yards and a touchdown and brought in all six targets for 13 yards and another score in the Packers' 27-19 win over the Panthers on Thursday. |
| Devonte Wyatt | Active | Wyatt (ankle) is active for Thursday's game against the Panthers, Mike Spofford of the team's official site reports. |
| Keisean Nixon | Active | Nixon (shoulder) is active for Thursday's game against Carolina, Mike Spofford of the team's official site reports. |
| Anthony Campbell | Active | |
| Brenton Cox Jr. | Active | |
| Aaron Banks | Active | |
| Evan Williams | Active | Williams finished Sunday's 20-17 loss to the Lions with nine tackles (five solo) and one pass defense. |
| Isaiah McDuffie | Active | McDuffie logged 11 tackles (six solo), one fumble and one fumble recovery during the Packers' 20-17 loss to the Lions on Sunday. |
| Xavier McKinney | Active | McKinney posted 10 tackles (four solo) during Sunday's 20-17 loss to the Lions. |
| Bo Melton | Active | Melton caught one of his two targets for four yards and logged a 24-yard kickoff return in the Packers' 20-17 loss to the Lions on Sunday. |
| Savion Williams | Active | Williams caught three passes on as many targets for 47 yards and turned two carries into four yards during the Packers' 20-17 loss to the Lions on Sunday. |
| Benjamin St-Juste | Active | St-Juste (hamstring) was estimated as a full participant on Monday's practice report, Matt Schneidman of The Athletic reports. |
NO
| Cesar Ruiz | Questionable | questionable |
| Nathan Shepherd | Questionable | questionable |
| Justin Reid | Questionable | Reid (concussion) has been ruled out for the remainder of Sunday's game against the Steelers in Paris. |
| CJ Donaldson | Questionable | Donaldson (shoulder) is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the Steelers in Paris. |
| Carl Granderson | Active | Granderson totaled four tackles, including 1.5 sacks, in Sunday's Week 7 loss to Pittsburgh. |
| Pete Werner | Active | Werner finished Sunday's loss to the Steelers with eight tackles (three solo). |
| Jonas Sanker | Active | Sanker posted nine tackles (seven solo) in Sunday's Week 7 loss to Pittsburgh. |
| Noah Fant | Active | Fant gathered in all two targets for 11 yards during Sunday's 16-10 defeat against Pittsburgh. |
| Bryce Lance | Active | Lance reeled in all two targets for 12 yards during Sunday's 16-10 loss to Pittsburgh. |
| Kendre Miller | Active | Miller rushed eight times for six yards in Sunday's 16-10 loss to the Steelers in Paris. |
| Barion Brown | Active | Brown hauled in all three targets for 57 yards during Sunday's 16-10 loss to the Steelers. |
| Mike Reid | Active | |
| Tyree Wilson | Active | |
| John Ridgeway III | Active | |
| Treyton Welch | Active | |
| Zach Wilson | Active | |
| Juwan Johnson | Active | Johnson caught one of three targets for seven yards during Sunday's 16-10 loss to the Steelers. |
| Devaughn Vele | Active | Vele caught all five of his targets for 54 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 16-10 loss to the Steelers. |
| Alvin Kamara | Active | Kamara carried the ball six times for five yards and caught all seven of his targets for 57 yards in Sunday's 16-10 loss to the Steelers. |
| Daniel Carlson | Active | Carlson went 1-for-2 on field-goal attempts and made his lone extra-point try during Sundays' 16-10 loss to the Steelers in Paris. |
| Tyler Shough | Active | Shough completed 30 of 38 passes for 278 yards and one touchdown with one interception in Sunday's 16-10 loss to the Steelers. He added seven rushing yards on three carries. |
| Chris Olave | Active | Olave caught six of 10 targets for 56 yards in Sunday's 16-10 loss to the Steelers. |
| Spencer Rattler | Active | Rattler is active and will remain the Saints' No. 2 quarterback for Sunday's game against the Steelers in Paris, Ross Jackson of WWL Louisiana reports. |
| Anfernee Jennings | Active | Jennings (knee) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Steelers. |
| Kaden Elliss | Active | Elliss (calf) doesn't carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Steelers. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
n/a — indoor venue
Travel (GB): ~1,011 miles, no time-zone change