Sun, Dec 6 at 1:00 PM ET · Soldier Field
Expected score: JAX 21.5 – CHI 24.7
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): JAX 2.32 · CHI 1.76
Team ratings (Elo): JAX 1576.0 vs CHI 1558.7. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
JAX (4-2) — 49 days rest
Last 5: 3-2 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 18, 2026 | HOU | L | 31-34 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | PHI | W | 19-17 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | CIN | W | 22-17 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | NE | W | 35-6 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | DEN | L | 13-20 |
CHI (5-2) — 44 days rest
Last 5: 4-1 (2 straight wins)
| Oct 22, 2026 | NE | W | 30-24 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | ATL | W | 31-23 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | GB | L | 7-31 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | NYJ | W | 23-12 |
| Sep 28, 2026 | PHI | W | 27-7 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2024 | CHI 35 - JAX 16 | CHI |
Week 8 report — availability for Week 13 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 13.
JAX
| Antonio Johnson | Questionable | Johnson (ankle) sat out practice both Wednesday and Thursday. |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | Questionable | Allen (hamstring) was limited in practice Thursday. |
| Jakobi Meyers | Questionable | Meyers (hamstring) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Jahlani Tavai | Questionable | questionable |
| Ruke Orhorhoro | Questionable | questionable |
| Anton Harrison | Injured Reserve | Harrison was diagnosed with a torn ACL while undergoing a procedure on his right knee Thursday, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports. |
| Ross Matiscik | Questionable | questionable |
| Montaric Brown | Active | Brown (hamstring) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Foyesade Oluokun | Active | Oluokun logged eight tackles (four solo) in the Jaguars' 34-31 loss to the Texans in London on Sunday. |
| Josh Cameron | Active | Cameron didn't garner a target and recorded 46 kickoff-return yards during Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. |
| Cam Little | Active | Little made his sole field-goal attempt and all four of his PATs in the Jaguars' 34-31 loss to the Texans on Sunday in London. |
| Nate Boerkircher | Active | Boerkircher caught both of his targets for eight yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. |
| Jalen Huskey | Active | |
| Albert Regis | Active | |
| Wesley Williams | Active | |
| CJ Williams | Active | |
| Brenton Strange | Active | Strange caught five of seven targets for 44 yards during Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | Active | Rodriguez rushed 11 times for 55 yards while failing to reel in his only target during Sunday's 34-31 loss to Houston. |
| Travis Hunter | Active | Hunter caught all four of his targets for 59 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans in London. He also recorded three tackles and an interception. |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | Active | Thomas didn't haul in either of his two targets during Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans in London. |
| Parker Washington | Active | Washington caught four of 11 targets for 64 yards in Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. |
| Trevor Lawrence | Active | Lawrence completed 24 of 41 passes for 306 yards and four touchdowns with one interception in Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. He added 11 rushing yards on three carries. |
| Bhayshul Tuten | Active | Tuten carried the ball 12 times for 39 yards and caught all four of his targets for 48 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. |
| Ameer Abdullah | Active | |
| Eric Murray | Active | Murray (concussion) does not have an injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Texans. |
CHI
| Anthony Johnson Jr. | Injured Reserve | ir |
| Kyle Monangai | Questionable | Monangai (thumb/toe) did not practice Thursday. |
| D'Marco Jackson | Questionable | questionable |
| Coby Bryant | Injured Reserve | Coach Ben Johnson said Wednesday that Bryant (knee) will start running again in the "near future," Courtney Cronin of ESPN.com reports. |
| Jack Sanborn | Questionable | questionable |
| Cole Kmet | Injured Reserve | The Bears placed Kmet (knee) on injured reserve Friday. |
| Malik Muhammad II | Questionable | Muhammad (toe) is doubtful to return to Thursday night's contest against the Patriots. |
| T.J. Edwards | Active | Edwards (hamstring) was considered to be a full participant on the Bears' estimated practice report Thursday. |
| Jeffery Simmons | Active | Simmons was traded to the Bears on Thursday, along with a 2028 fifth-round pick, in exchange for first-round picks in 2027 and 2028, as well as a 2027 fourth-round pick, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports. |
| Zavier Scott | Active | Chicago signed Scott from the practice squad to the active roster Tuesday. |
| Jayden Loving | Active | |
| Jordan McFadden | Active | |
| Case Keenum | Active | |
| Kyler Gordon | Active | Gordon recorded five tackles (three solo), including 1.0 sacks, in Thursday's 30-24 win over the Patriots. |
| Dillon Thieneman | Active | Thieneman tallied eight tackles (three solo), including 0.5 sacks, in a 30-24 victory versus the Patriots on Thursday. |
| Sam Roush | Active | Roush is expected to get more work on offense after Cole Kmet (knee) landed on injured reserve Friday. |
| Kalif Raymond | Active | Raymond did not catch either of his two targets and returned one punt for seven yards Thursday in a 30-24 win over New England. |
| Roschon Johnson | Active | Johnson rushed twice for 13 yards in the Bears' 30-24 victory over the Patriots on Thursday. |
| Montez Sweat | Active | The NFL reinstated Sweat on Friday after he served a two-game suspension for violating the league's performance-enhancing substances policy. |
| Rome Odunze | Active | Odunze brought in four of five targets for 69 yards in the Bears' 30-24 win over the Patriots on Thursday. |
| Colston Loveland | Active | Loveland secured seven of 12 targets for 69 yards and a touchdown during the Bears' 30-24 win over the Patriots on Thursday. |
| Cairo Santos | Active | Santos went 3-for-4 on field-goal tries and made all three of his extra-point attempts in Thursday's 30-24 win over New England. |
| D'Andre Swift | Active | Swift rushed 22 times for 78 yards and a touchdown and brought in all four targets for 12 yards in the Bears' 30-24 win over the Patriots on Thursday. |
| Luther Burden III | Active | Burden brought in all four targets for 130 yards and a touchdown and rushed once for seven yards in the Bears' 30-24 win over the Patriots on Thursday. |
| Caleb Williams | Active | Williams completed 22 of 33 passes for 308 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions while rushing five times for 18 yards in the Bears' 30-24 win over the Patriots on Thursday. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
47.5°F, wind 2.5 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (JAX): ~864 miles, 1h time-zone shift west