Sun, Dec 6 at 1:00 PM ET · Raymond James Stadium
Expected score: LAC 21.4 – TB 24.8
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): LAC 2.32 · TB 1.76
Team ratings (Elo): LAC 1474.2 vs TB 1457.9. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
LAC (0-6) — 48 days rest
Last 5: 0-5 (5 straight losses)
| Oct 18, 2026 | KC | L | 6-22 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | DEN | L | 17-23 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | SEA | L | 23-30 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | BUF | L | 16-24 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | LV | L | 14-26 |
TB (2-5) — 42 days rest
Last 5: 2-3 (1 straight win)
| Oct 25, 2026 | CAR | W | 43-13 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | PIT | L | 19-26 |
| Oct 8, 2026 | DAL | W | 24-16 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | GB | L | 14-17 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | MIN | L | 16-23 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 15, 2024 | LAC 17 - TB 40 | TB |
Week 8 report — availability for Week 13 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 13.
LAC
| Brenen Thompson | Questionable | Thompson (quadriceps/hamstring) did not practice Thursday. |
| Donte Jackson | Questionable | Jackson (hamstring) was limited in Thursday's practice. |
| Tre' Harris | Questionable | Harris (hamstring) remained limited in Thursday's practice. |
| Ladd McConkey | Questionable | McConkey (concussion) was a full participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Denzel Perryman | Injured Reserve | Head coach Jim Harbaugh said Wednesday that Perryman (undisclosed) is "close" to returning from injured reserve, Alex Insdorf of BoltBeat.com reports. |
| Deane Leonard | Questionable | Leonard (concussion) did not participate in Wednesday's practice, Alex Insdorf of BoltBeat.com reports. |
| Derwin James Jr. | Doubtful | James (hamstring) suffered a setback in his recovery and will likely miss Sunday's game against the Rams, Eric Smith of the Chargers' official site reports. |
| Rodney Shelley | Questionable | questionable |
| Kayode Awosika | Questionable | questionable |
| Bud Dupree | Active | Dupree (neck) is off the Chargers' injury report ahead of the team's matchup versus the Rams on Sunday. |
| Joe Alt | Active | Alt (neck) was not listed on the Chargers' official injury report Wednesday. |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith | Active | Lambert-Smith caught five of nine targets for 32 yards during Sunday's 22-6 loss at Kansas City. He also lost a fumble. |
| Cameron Dicker | Active | Dicker made both of his field-goal attempts in the Chargers' 22-6 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday. |
| Charlie Kolar | Active | Kolar caught three of six targets for 20 yards during the Chargers' 22-6 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday. |
| Kimani Vidal | Active | Vidal turned seven carries into 21 yards and caught three of four passes for 19 yards during the Chargers' 22-6 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday. |
| Keaton Mitchell | Active | Mitchell turned two carries into four yards, failed to haul in his lone target and returned four kickoffs for 87 yards during Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs. |
| Quentin Johnston | Active | Johnston caught one of three targets for 57 yards in Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs. |
| Justin Herbert | Active | Herbert completed 22 of 37 passes for 204 yards, no touchdowns and one interception in Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs. He also rushed five times for 26 yards. |
| Omarion Hampton | Active | Hampton rushed seven times for 18 yards and caught all four of his targets for 21 yards in Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs. |
| Daiyan Henley | Active | Henley (knee) is active for Sunday's game against the Chiefs. |
| Jamaree Caldwell | Active | |
| Dalvin Tomlinson | Active | |
| Kendall Williamson | Active | |
| Elijah Molden | Active | |
| Justin Eboigbe | Active |
TB
| Luke Goedeke | Questionable | Goedeke (calf) did not participate at the Buccaneers' practice Thursday. |
| Emeka Egbuka | Questionable | Egbuka (concussion) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Kenny Gainwell | Questionable | Gainwell (hip) was a limited participant at Thursday's practice, Scott Smith of the Buccaneers' official site reports. |
| Josh Hayes | Injured Reserve | Hayes suffered a small setback in his recovery from a knee injury, Greg Auman of Fox Sports reports. |
| Christian Rozeboom | Injured Reserve | Rozeboom (finger) was placed on injured reserve by the Buccaneers on Thursday, Scott Smith of the team's official website reports. |
| Josiah Trotter | Active | Trotter (illness) was a full participant at the Buccaneers' practice Thursday. |
| Yaya Diaby | Active | |
| Antoine Winfield Jr. | Active | Winfield (ribs) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers' official site reports. |
| Baker Mayfield | Active | Mayfield, who was a full practice participant Wednesday, said that he's still taking a day-by-day approach when it comes to wearing a glove to protect his dislocated right thumb, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers' official site reports. |
| Tykee Smith | Active | Smith posted seven tackles (one solo), an interception and a blocked extra-point attempt Sunday in a 43-13 Week 7 win against Carolina. |
| Ted Hurst III | Active | Hurst didn't record a catch on one target in Sunday's 43-13 win over the Panthers. |
| Jalon Daniels | Active | Daniels was back in his primary reserve role behind Baker Mayfield in Sunday's 43-13 win over the Panthers. |
| Billy Schrauth | Active | |
| DeMonte Capehart | Active | |
| Ayden Garnes | Active | |
| Cade Otton | Active | Otton failed to catch his only target during Sunday's 43-13 win over the Panthers. |
| Sean Tucker | Active | Tucker rushed seven times for 52 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 43-13 win against Carolina. |
| Tez Johnson | Active | Johnson caught both of his targets for 33 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 43-13 win over the Panthers. |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | Active | Godwin secured four of five targets for 27 yards in the Buccaneers' 43-13 win over the Panthers on Sunday. |
| Chase McLaughlin | Active | McLaughlin made both of his field-goal tries while going 5-for-5 on PATs during Sunday's 43-13 win over the Panthers. |
| Bucky Irving | Active | Irving rushed 24 times for 106 yards and two touchdowns while bringing in one of two targets for four yards in the Buccaneers' 43-13 win over the Panthers on Sunday. He also committed a fumble that stayed with Tampa Bay. |
| Zyon McCollum | Active | McCollum (illness) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Panthers, Greg Auman of Fox Sports reports. |
| David Sills V | Active | Sills (hamstring) was activated from injured reserve by the Buccaneers on Thursday, Scott Smith of the team's official website reports. |
| Calijah Kancey | Active | |
| Benjamin Morrison | Active | Morrison (quadriceps) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
61.9°F, wind 0.0 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (LAC): Travel note unavailable (venue coordinates missing).