Sun, Dec 6 at 4:05 PM ET · Empower Field at Mile High
Expected score: MIA 15.3 – DEN 30.9
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): MIA 4.67 · DEN 1.27
Team ratings (Elo): MIA 1443.1 vs DEN 1603.8. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
MIA (1-5) — 42 days rest
Last 5: 1-4 (1 straight win)
| Oct 25, 2026 | NYJ | W | 28-25 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | CIN | L | 24-31 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | MIN | L | 10-15 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | KC | L | 10-24 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | SF | L | 13-35 |
DEN (5-2) — 42 days rest
Last 5: 4-1 (3 straight wins)
| Oct 25, 2026 | ARI | W | 30-16 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | SEA | W | 17-14 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | LAC | W | 23-17 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | SF | L | 14-24 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | LAR | W | 30-26 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| No meetings in coverage period | ||
Week 8 report — availability for Week 13 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 13.
MIA
| Jared Wayne | Questionable | Wayne (knee) was a limited practice participant Thursday, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. |
| Will Kacmarek | Questionable | Kacmarek (hamstring) practiced in a limited capacity Thursday, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. |
| JuJu Brents | Questionable | Brents (neck/concussion) was a limited practice participant Thursday, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. |
| Greg Dulcich | Questionable | Dulcich (ankle) remained limited at practice Thursday, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. |
| Malik Washington | Questionable | Washington (knee) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. |
| Kadyn Proctor | Questionable | Proctor sustained a concussion during Sunday's game against the Jets, Alain Poupart of SI.com reports. |
| Michael Taaffe | Questionable | questionable |
| Dante Trader Jr. | Questionable | questionable |
| Tucker Addington | Questionable | questionable |
| Reese Taylor | Questionable | questionable |
| Robert Beal Jr. | Active | Beal (hamstring) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Marcel Louis-Jacques of ESPN.com reports. |
| Willie Gay Jr. | Active | Gay (illness) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Marcel Louis-Jacques of ESPN.com reports. |
| Jaylen Wright | Active | Wright (quadriceps/foot) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Marcel Louis-Jacques of ESPN.com reports. |
| Jacob Rodriguez | Active | Rodriguez tallied four tackles (one solo) during Miami's win over the Jets on Sunday. |
| Jordyn Brooks | Active | Brooks posted nine tackles (five solo) during the Dolphins' win Sunday over the Jets. |
| Kevin Coleman Jr. | Active | Coleman did not catch his only target in the Dolphins' 28-25 win over the Jets on Sunday. |
| Chris Bell | Active | Bell caught three of his four targets for 25 yards in the Dolphins' 28-25 win over the Jets on Sunday. |
| Kaytron Allen | Active | Allen logged six snaps on special teams and didn't show up on the box score otherwise during Sunday's 28-25 win over the Jets. |
| Zane Gonzalez | Active | Gonzalez reverted to the Dolphins' practice squad Monday, per the NFL's transaction log. |
| Chukwuebuka Godrick | Active | |
| Marcellas Dial Jr. | Active | |
| Jalen Tolbert | Active | |
| Caleb Douglas | Active | Douglas (ankle) caught two of three targets for 70 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 28-25 win over the Jets. |
| Malik Willis | Active | Willis completed 14 of 21 passes for 208 yards and two touchdowns while rushing six times for 39 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 28-25 win over the Jets. |
| Ollie Gordon II | Active | Gordon rushed 25 times for 103 yards and a touchdown while catching one of three targets for no gain in Sunday's 28-25 win over the Jets. |
DEN
| Talanoa Hufanga | Questionable | Hufanga (ankle) did not participate at the Broncos' practice Thursday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official website reports. |
| Zach Allen | Questionable | Allen (hamstring) was a limited participant at the Broncos' practice Thursday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official website reports. |
| Jaylen Waddle | Questionable | Waddle (chest) practiced in a limited capacity Thursday, Aric DiLalla of the Broncos' official site reports. |
| RJ Harvey | Questionable | Harvey (knee) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Brandon Jones | Questionable | questionable |
| Garett Bolles | Questionable | questionable |
| Tyler Badie | Injured Reserve | The Broncos placed Badie (thumb) on injured reserve Saturday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports. |
| Jonah Elliss | Injured Reserve | The Broncos placed Elliss (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports. |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | Active | Mims (ankle) practiced fully Thursday,Zac Stevens of TheDNVR.com reports. |
| Pat Surtain II | Active | Surtain (ankle) was a full practice participant Wednesday, Aric DiLalla of the Broncos' official site reports. |
| Alex Singleton | Active | Singleton recorded 19 tackles (12 solo) including 1.0 sacks during Sunday's 30-16 win at Arizona. |
| Evan Engram | Active | Engram caught one of three targets for two yards during Sunday's 30-16 win over the Cardinals. |
| Troy Franklin | Active | Franklin failed to bring in either of his two targets in the Broncos' 30-16 win over the Cardinals on Sunday. |
| Kage Casey | Active | |
| Tyler Onyedim | Active | |
| Jordan Jackson | Active | |
| Dallen Bentley | Active | |
| Courtland Sutton | Active | Sutton caught three of five targets for 45 yards during Sunday's 30-16 win over Arizona. |
| Jonah Coleman | Active | Coleman (ankle) rushed nine times for 54 yards and caught both of his targets for 15 yards in Sunday's 30-16 win over the Cardinals. |
| J.K. Dobbins | Active | Dobbins rushed six times for 23 yards and a touchdown and wasn't targeted in Sunday's 30-16 win over the Cardinals. |
| Bo Nix | Active | Nix completed 15 of 29 passes for 222 yards and a touchdown while rushing seven times for 73 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 30-16 win over the Cardinals. |
| Wil Lutz | Active | Lutz went 3-for-3 on field-goal tries and made all three of his PATs during Sunday's 30-16 win over Arizona. |
| Sam Ehlinger | Active | Ehlinger (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the emergency third quarterback in Sunday's game against the Cardinals, Aric DiLalla of the Broncos' official site reports. |
| Jonathon Cooper | Active | Cooper had his roster exemption removed by the Broncos on Saturday and is available for Sunday's road game against the Cardinals, Aric DiLalla of the Broncos' official site reports. |
| Kris Abrams-Draine | Active | Abrams-Draine recorded six tackles (four solo), three pass breakups, including an interception, and one forced fumble in Thursday night's 17-14 overtime win over the Seahawks. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
44.4°F, wind 1.6 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (MIA): ~1,716 miles, 2h time-zone shift west