Sun, Dec 6 at 4:25 PM ET · Gillette Stadium
Expected score: BUF 20.2 – NE 26.0
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): BUF 2.62 · NE 1.62
Team ratings (Elo): BUF 1590.2 vs NE 1608.9. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
BUF (5-1) — 49 days rest
Last 5: 4-1 (2 straight wins)
| Oct 18, 2026 | LV | W | 33-30 |
| Oct 12, 2026 | LAR | W | 37-34 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | NE | L | 26-29 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | LAC | W | 24-16 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | DET | W | 41-31 |
NE (4-3) — 44 days rest
Last 5: 3-2 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 22, 2026 | CHI | L | 24-30 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | NYJ | W | 26-19 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | LV | W | 45-17 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | BUF | W | 29-26 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | JAX | L | 6-35 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2024 | BUF 24 - NE 21 | BUF |
| Jan 5, 2025 | NE 23 - BUF 16 | NE |
| Oct 5, 2025 | BUF 20 - NE 23 | NE |
| Dec 14, 2025 | NE 31 - BUF 35 | BUF |
| Oct 4, 2026 | BUF 26 - NE 29 | NE |
Week 8 report — availability for Week 13 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 13.
BUF
| Dalton Kincaid | Questionable | Kincaid (chest) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| DJ Moore | Questionable | Moore (shoulder) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Joe Andreessen | Questionable | questionable |
| Ray Davis | Questionable | Davis didn't participate in Thursday's practice due to an illness, Matt Parrino of The Syracuse Post-Standard reports. |
| Tyrell Shavers | Out | The Bills designated Shavers (knee) to return from the reserve/PUP list Wednesday, but he will not play against the Ravens on Sunday, Cameron Wolfe of NFL Network reports. |
| TJ Parker | Questionable | questionable |
| Bradley Chubb | Questionable | questionable |
| Dee Alford | Questionable | questionable |
| Spencer Brown | Questionable | questionable |
| C.J. Gardner-Johnson | Active | |
| Ed Oliver | Active | Oliver (knee) was a full participant at the Bills' practice Thursday. |
| T.J. Sanders | Active | |
| Sam Franklin Jr. | Active | The NFL reduced Franklin's discipline from a one-game suspension to a fine of $14,926, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports. |
| Dorian Williams | Active | Williams logged five tackles (three solo) and one pass defensed for an interception in the Bills' 33-30 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Davison Igbinosun | Active | Defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard praised Igbinosun's play earlier this week and plans to keep giving the rookie a good amount of playing time, Alec White of the Bills' official site reports. Said Leonard, "I think what he's done the last couple weeks, he's definitely earned a high majority of the snaps at the corner position. I know what I'm getting, play in and play out." |
| Dawson Knox | Active | Knox caught his only target for no gain during Sunday's 33-30 win at Las Vegas. |
| Tyler Bass | Active | Bass converted all four of his field-goal attempts and all three of his extra-point tries during Buffalo's win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Ty Johnson | Active | Johnson logged a three-yard carry and caught both of his targets for 24 yards during the Bills' 33-30 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Joshua Palmer | Active | Palmer caught one of two targets for 37 yards during Buffalo's 33-30 win over Las Vegas on Sunday. |
| Mike Danna | Active | |
| Jude Bowry | Active | |
| Ar'maj Reed-Adams | Active | |
| Keon Coleman | Active | Coleman brought in four of six targets for 59 yards and a touchdown in the Bills' 33-30 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Khalil Shakir | Active | Shakir brought in four of six targets for 34 yards and a touchdown in the Bills' 33-30 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Josh Allen | Active | Allen completed 23 of 33 passes for 255 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions and rushed five times for one yard in the Bills' 33-30 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
NE
| TreVeyon Henderson | Questionable | Henderson (illness) did not practice Thursday, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. |
| A.J. Brown | Questionable | Brown (ankle/knee) was officially listed as a non-participant at Thursday's practice, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. |
| Morgan Moses | Questionable | questionable |
| DaQuan Jones | Questionable | questionable |
| Ben Brown | Questionable | questionable |
| Alijah Vera-Tucker | Injured Reserve | Vera-Tucker (hamstring) was placed on injured reserve by the Patriots on Thursday. |
| Channing Canada | Active | Canada (hamstring) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Karon Prunty | Active | Prunty (hamstring) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Carlton Davis III | Active | Davis (neck) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Joshua Farmer | Active | |
| Behren Morton | Active | |
| Marcus Jones | Active | Jones registered nine tackles (five solo), including 1.0 sacks, and returned one punt for 19 yards in Thursday's loss to the Bears. |
| Christian Elliss | Active | Elliss tallied 13 tackles (eight solo) in a Week 7 loss to Chicago on Thursday. |
| Kyle Williams | Active | Williams returned two kickoffs for 47 yards and failed to haul in his lone target during the Patriots' 30-24 loss to the Bears on Thursday. |
| Corey Kiner | Active | Kiner rushed four times for 13 yards in Thursday's Week 7 loss to Chicago. He also returned four kickoffs for 102 yards. |
| Eli Raridon | Active | Raridon caught three of four targets for 56 yards and a touchdown in Thursday's Week 7 loss to the Bears. |
| Efton Chism III | Active | Chism caught his sole target for 16 yards in the Patriots' 30-24 loss to the Bears on Thursday. |
| DeMario Douglas | Active | Douglas caught three of his four targets for 23 yards in the Patriots' 30-24 loss to the Bears on Thursday. |
| Hunter Henry | Active | Henry secured all seven targets for 71 yards in the Patriots' 30-24 loss to the Bears on Thursday. |
| Andy Borregales | Active | Borregales made his only field-goal attempt and was successful on all three extra-point tries Thursday in a Week 7 loss to the Bears. |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | Active | Stevenson rushed six times for 22 yards and brought in all five targets for 93 yards and a touchdown in the Patriots' 30-24 loss to the Bears on Thursday. |
| Drake Maye | Active | Maye completed 24 of 31 passes for 321 yards with two touchdowns and one interception while adding four rushes for 26 yards and another score in the Patriots' 30-24 loss to the Bears on Thursday. |
| Craig Woodson | Active | Woodson (shoulder) is officially active for Thursday's game against the Bears. |
| Kevin Byard | Active | Byard (chest) is officially active for Thursday's game at Chicago. |
| Christian Gonzalez | Active | Gonzalez (illness) is listed as active for Thursday night's game against the Bears. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
48.4°F, wind 6.5 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (BUF): ~386 miles, no time-zone change