Mon, Dec 7 at 8:15 PM ET · Lumen Field
Expected score: DAL 16.4 – SEA 29.8
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): DAL 4.04 · SEA 1.33
Team ratings (Elo): DAL 1474.8 vs SEA 1603.2. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
DAL (3-4) — 42 days rest
Last 5: 2-3 (1 straight win)
| Oct 26, 2026 | PHI | W | 38-21 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | GB | L | 13-23 |
| Oct 8, 2026 | TB | L | 16-24 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | HOU | W | 34-30 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | BAL | L | 31-34 |
SEA (4-3) — 43 days rest
Last 5: 2-3 (1 straight win)
| Oct 25, 2026 | KC | W | 20-3 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | DEN | L | 14-17 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | SF | L | 29-32 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | LAC | W | 30-23 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | WSH | L | 31-33 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| No meetings in coverage period | ||
Week 8 report — availability for Week 13 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 13.
DAL
| Quinnen Williams | Questionable | Williams (hamstring) practiced in a limited fashion Thursday, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports. |
| Caleb Downs | Questionable | Downs (ankle) was a limited practice participant Thursday, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports. |
| Dee Winters | Questionable | Winters (calf) didn't practice Thursday, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports. |
| KaVontae Turpin | Questionable | Turpin (ribs) was a non-participant in practice Thursday, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports. |
| Jonathan Bullard | Injured Reserve | Bullard (calf) was designated to return from injured reserve by the Cowboys on Thursday. |
| George Pickens | Questionable | Pickens (shoulder/hamstring) was a limited participant at Thursday's practice, Jon Machota of The Athletic reports. |
| Luke Schoonmaker | Questionable | questionable |
| Drew Shelton | Questionable | questionable |
| P.J. Locke | Injured Reserve | Locke (foot) has been downgraded from questionable to out for Monday's game against the Eagles. |
| Marist Liufau | Injured Reserve | Liufau (forearm) has been downgraded from questionable to out ahead of Monday night's game against the Eagles. |
| Brandon Aubrey | Active | Aubrey made all three of his field-goal attempts and all three PAT tries in Monday's 38-21 win over the Eagles. |
| DeMarvion Overshown | Active | Overshown posted six tackles (five solo) and two pass defenses (including one interception) during the Cowboys' 38-21 win over the Eagles on Monday. |
| Jake Ferguson | Active | Ferguson failed to haul in his lone target during Monday's 38-21 win over the Eagles. |
| Tyler Goodson | Active | Goodson turned 10 carries into 38 yards and returned two kickoffs for 42 yards during the Cowboys' 38-21 win over the Eagles on Monday. |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | Active | Spann-Ford finished with two catches for 11 yards on two targets in Monday's 38-21 win over the Eagles. |
| Tyrus Wheat | Active | |
| Ryan Flournoy | Active | Flournoy secured all four targets for 70 yards in the Cowboys' 38-21 win over the Eagles on Monday night. |
| Javonte Williams | Active | Williams rushed 25 times for 155 yards and a touchdown in the Cowboys' 38-21 win over the Eagles on Monday night. |
| Dak Prescott | Active | Prescott completed 15 of 27 passes for 212 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions while adding two rushes for eight yards in the Cowboys' 38-21 win over the Eagles on Monday night. He also had a two-point conversion run. |
| CeeDee Lamb | Active | Lamb brought in five of 12 targets for 74 yards and two touchdowns in the Cowboys' 38-21 win over the Eagles on Monday night. |
| Cobie Durant | Active | Durant (hamstring) does not have an injury designation for Monday's game against Philadelphia, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports. |
| Broderick Jones | Active | |
| Tyler Guyton | Active | |
| Juanyeh Thomas | Active | Thomas was signed to the Cowboys' active roster Tuesday. |
| James Houston | Active |
SEA
| Velus Jones Jr. | Questionable | Jones (hamstring) did not participate at the Seahawks' practice Thursday. |
| Drew Lock | Questionable | Lock (elbow) was a limited participant at the Seahawks' practice Thursday. |
| Drake Thomas | Questionable | Thomas (ankle) was a limited participant at the Seahawks' practice Thursday. |
| Tyrice Knight | Questionable | Knight (hip) was a limited participant at the Seahawks' practice Thursday. |
| Leonard Williams | Questionable | Williams (Achilles) was a limited participant at the Seahawks' practice Thursday. |
| Anthony Bradford | Questionable | questionable |
| Rashid Shaheed | Questionable | Shaheed (knee) did not practice Thursday, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports. |
| Jadarian Price | Injured Reserve | Price (chest) was limited in Thursday's practice, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports. |
| Zach Charbonnet | Questionable | Charbonnet (knee) was a full participant at Thursday's practice, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports. |
| Uchenna Nwosu | Questionable | questionable |
| Patrick O'Connell | Questionable | questionable |
| Chazz Surratt | Questionable | questionable |
| Connor O'Toole | Questionable | questionable |
| Charles Cross | Doubtful | Cross underwent an MRI and was diagnosed with a high ankle sprain, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports. |
| Nick Emmanwori | Active | Emmanwori registered four tackles (two solo) Sunday in a 20-3 Week 7 win over the Chiefs. |
| Ernest Jones IV | Active | Jones notched nine tackles (five solo) Sunday in a 20-3 win against Kansas City. |
| George Holani | Active | Holani turned five carries into 11 yards and caught one of two targets for 12 yards during the Seahawks' 20-3 win over the Chiefs on Sunday. |
| Cooper Kupp | Active | Kupp caught both of his targets for 20 yards in a 20-3 win over the Chiefs on Sunday. |
| Tory Horton | Active | Horton failed to haul in his lone target and returned two kickoffs for 60 yards during the Seahawks' 20-3 win over the Chiefs on Sunday. |
| Beau Stephens | Active | |
| Robert Henry Jr. | Active | |
| Jason Myers | Active | Myers went 2-for-2 on field-goal tries and made both of his PATs during Sunday night's 20-3 win over the Chiefs. |
| Sam Darnold | Active | Darnold completed 20 of 28 passes for 257 yards, one touchdown and one interception in Sunday's 20-3 win over the Chiefs. He added two rushing attempts for 17 yards. |
| AJ Barner | Active | Barner caught four of five targets for 42 yards while adding three rushes for four yards during Sunday night's 20-3 win over the Chiefs. |
| Emanuel Wilson | Active | Wilson rushed 24 times for 100 yards and a touchdown while catching his lone target for 15 yards in Sunday's 20-3 win over the Chiefs. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
57.6°F, wind 11.2 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (DAL): ~1,669 miles, 2h time-zone shift west