Thu, Dec 10 at 8:15 PM ET · Gillette Stadium
Expected score: MIN 19.3 – NE 26.9
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): MIN 2.89 · NE 1.53
Team ratings (Elo): MIN 1563.1 vs NE 1608.9. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
MIN (6-0) — 46 days rest
Last 5: 5-0 (5 straight wins)
| Oct 25, 2026 | IND | W | 16-10 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | NO | W | 23-13 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | MIA | W | 15-10 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | TB | W | 23-16 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | CHI | W | 9-3 |
NE (4-3) — 49 days rest
Last 5: 3-2 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 22, 2026 | CHI | L | 24-30 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | NYJ | W | 26-19 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | LV | W | 45-17 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | BUF | W | 29-26 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | JAX | L | 6-35 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| No meetings in coverage period | ||
Week 8 report — availability for Week 14 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 14.
MIN
| Aaron Jones Sr. | Questionable | Jones (knee) was limited at Thursday's practice. |
| Gavin Bartholomew | Questionable | questionable |
| Brian O'Neill | Active | |
| Joe Huber | Active | |
| Blake Cashman | Active | Cashman recorded 12 tackles (8 solo) including 2.0 sacks and four passes defensed during Sunday's 16-10 win versus the Colts. |
| Harrison Smith | Active | Smith recorded four tackles (two solo) including 0.5 sacks and an interception during Sunday's 16-10 win versus the Colts. |
| Elijah Williams | Active | |
| Demond Claiborne | Active | |
| Caleb Tiernan | Active | |
| Charles Demmings | Active | |
| Jakobe Thomas | Active | |
| Max Brosmer | Active | |
| Jauan Jennings | Active | Jennings caught two of three targets for 34 yards in Sunday's 16-10 win over the Colts. |
| T.J. Hockenson | Active | Hockenson caught four of five targets for 35 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 16-10 win over the Colts. |
| Jordan Addison | Active | Addison caught two of three targets for 20 yards in Sunday's 16-10 win over the Colts. He added three yards on his lone carry. |
| Jordan Mason | Active | Mason carried the ball 15 times for 68 yards in Sunday's 16-10 win over the Colts. He failed to catch either of his two targets. |
| Kyler Murray | Active | Murray completed 14 of 24 passes for 150 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 16-10 win over the Colts. He added 39 rushing yards on five carries. |
| Justin Jefferson | Active | Jefferson caught four of seven targets for 44 yards in Sunday's 16-10 win over the Colts. |
| Will Reichard | Active | Reichard went 3-for-4 on field-goal attempts and made his only PAT during Sunday's 16-10 win over the Colts. |
| Myles Price | Active | Price (head) was back on the field for the second quarter of Sunday's game against the Colts, Ben Goessling of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports. |
| Christian Darrisaw | Active | Darrisaw (concussion) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Colts, Craig Peters of the Vikings' official site reports. |
| James Pierre | Active | |
| Michael Jurgens | Active | Jurgens (elbow) is active for Sunday's game against the Saints, Craig Peters of the Vikings' official site reports. |
| Ben Yurosek | Active | Yurosek (ankle) is listed as active for Sunday's game against the Saints, Craig Peters of the Vikings' official site reports. |
| Brett Thorson | Active | Thorson (hamstring) was a full participant in practice Wednesday and Thursday. |
NE
| TreVeyon Henderson | Questionable | Henderson (illness) did not practice Thursday, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. |
| A.J. Brown | Questionable | Brown (ankle/knee) was officially listed as a non-participant at Thursday's practice, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. |
| Morgan Moses | Questionable | questionable |
| DaQuan Jones | Questionable | questionable |
| Ben Brown | Questionable | questionable |
| Alijah Vera-Tucker | Injured Reserve | Vera-Tucker (hamstring) was placed on injured reserve by the Patriots on Thursday. |
| Channing Canada | Active | Canada (hamstring) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Karon Prunty | Active | Prunty (hamstring) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Carlton Davis III | Active | Davis (neck) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Joshua Farmer | Active | |
| Behren Morton | Active | |
| Marcus Jones | Active | Jones registered nine tackles (five solo), including 1.0 sacks, and returned one punt for 19 yards in Thursday's loss to the Bears. |
| Christian Elliss | Active | Elliss tallied 13 tackles (eight solo) in a Week 7 loss to Chicago on Thursday. |
| Kyle Williams | Active | Williams returned two kickoffs for 47 yards and failed to haul in his lone target during the Patriots' 30-24 loss to the Bears on Thursday. |
| Corey Kiner | Active | Kiner rushed four times for 13 yards in Thursday's Week 7 loss to Chicago. He also returned four kickoffs for 102 yards. |
| Eli Raridon | Active | Raridon caught three of four targets for 56 yards and a touchdown in Thursday's Week 7 loss to the Bears. |
| Efton Chism III | Active | Chism caught his sole target for 16 yards in the Patriots' 30-24 loss to the Bears on Thursday. |
| DeMario Douglas | Active | Douglas caught three of his four targets for 23 yards in the Patriots' 30-24 loss to the Bears on Thursday. |
| Hunter Henry | Active | Henry secured all seven targets for 71 yards in the Patriots' 30-24 loss to the Bears on Thursday. |
| Andy Borregales | Active | Borregales made his only field-goal attempt and was successful on all three extra-point tries Thursday in a Week 7 loss to the Bears. |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | Active | Stevenson rushed six times for 22 yards and brought in all five targets for 93 yards and a touchdown in the Patriots' 30-24 loss to the Bears on Thursday. |
| Drake Maye | Active | Maye completed 24 of 31 passes for 321 yards with two touchdowns and one interception while adding four rushes for 26 yards and another score in the Patriots' 30-24 loss to the Bears on Thursday. |
| Craig Woodson | Active | Woodson (shoulder) is officially active for Thursday's game against the Bears. |
| Kevin Byard | Active | Byard (chest) is officially active for Thursday's game at Chicago. |
| Christian Gonzalez | Active | Gonzalez (illness) is listed as active for Thursday night's game against the Bears. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
48.4°F, wind 6.5 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (MIN): ~1,116 miles, 1h time-zone shift east