Sun, Dec 13 at 1:00 PM ET · Hard Rock Stadium
Expected score: CHI 24.8 – MIA 21.4
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): CHI 1.75 · MIA 2.34
Team ratings (Elo): CHI 1558.7 vs MIA 1443.1. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
CHI (5-2) — 51 days rest
Last 5: 4-1 (2 straight wins)
| Oct 22, 2026 | NE | W | 30-24 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | ATL | W | 31-23 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | GB | L | 7-31 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | NYJ | W | 23-12 |
| Sep 28, 2026 | PHI | W | 27-7 |
MIA (1-5) — 49 days rest
Last 5: 1-4 (1 straight win)
| Oct 25, 2026 | NYJ | W | 28-25 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | CIN | L | 24-31 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | MIN | L | 10-15 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | KC | L | 10-24 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | SF | L | 13-35 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| No meetings in coverage period | ||
Week 8 report — availability for Week 14 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 14.
CHI
| Anthony Johnson Jr. | Out | out |
| Kyle Monangai | Questionable | Monangai (thumb/toe) did not practice Thursday. |
| D'Marco Jackson | Questionable | questionable |
| Coby Bryant | Injured Reserve | Coach Ben Johnson said Wednesday that Bryant (knee) will start running again in the "near future," Courtney Cronin of ESPN.com reports. |
| Jack Sanborn | Questionable | questionable |
| Cole Kmet | Injured Reserve | The Bears placed Kmet (knee) on injured reserve Friday. |
| Malik Muhammad II | Questionable | Muhammad (toe) is doubtful to return to Thursday night's contest against the Patriots. |
| T.J. Edwards | Active | Edwards (hamstring) was considered to be a full participant on the Bears' estimated practice report Thursday. |
| Jeffery Simmons | Active | Simmons was traded to the Bears on Thursday, along with a 2028 fifth-round pick, in exchange for first-round picks in 2027 and 2028, as well as a 2027 fourth-round pick, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports. |
| Zavier Scott | Active | Chicago signed Scott from the practice squad to the active roster Tuesday. |
| Jayden Loving | Active | |
| Jordan McFadden | Active | |
| Case Keenum | Active | |
| Kyler Gordon | Active | Gordon recorded five tackles (three solo), including 1.0 sacks, in Thursday's 30-24 win over the Patriots. |
| Dillon Thieneman | Active | Thieneman tallied eight tackles (three solo), including 0.5 sacks, in a 30-24 victory versus the Patriots on Thursday. |
| Sam Roush | Active | Roush is expected to get more work on offense after Cole Kmet (knee) landed on injured reserve Friday. |
| Kalif Raymond | Active | Raymond did not catch either of his two targets and returned one punt for seven yards Thursday in a 30-24 win over New England. |
| Roschon Johnson | Active | Johnson rushed twice for 13 yards in the Bears' 30-24 victory over the Patriots on Thursday. |
| Montez Sweat | Active | The NFL reinstated Sweat on Friday after he served a two-game suspension for violating the league's performance-enhancing substances policy. |
| Rome Odunze | Active | Odunze brought in four of five targets for 69 yards in the Bears' 30-24 win over the Patriots on Thursday. |
| Colston Loveland | Active | Loveland secured seven of 12 targets for 69 yards and a touchdown during the Bears' 30-24 win over the Patriots on Thursday. |
| Cairo Santos | Active | Santos went 3-for-4 on field-goal tries and made all three of his extra-point attempts in Thursday's 30-24 win over New England. |
| D'Andre Swift | Active | Swift rushed 22 times for 78 yards and a touchdown and brought in all four targets for 12 yards in the Bears' 30-24 win over the Patriots on Thursday. |
| Luther Burden III | Active | Burden brought in all four targets for 130 yards and a touchdown and rushed once for seven yards in the Bears' 30-24 win over the Patriots on Thursday. |
| Caleb Williams | Active | Williams completed 22 of 33 passes for 308 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions while rushing five times for 18 yards in the Bears' 30-24 win over the Patriots on Thursday. |
MIA
| Jared Wayne | Questionable | Wayne (knee) was a limited practice participant Thursday, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. |
| Will Kacmarek | Questionable | Kacmarek (hamstring) practiced in a limited capacity Thursday, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. |
| JuJu Brents | Questionable | Brents (neck/concussion) was a limited practice participant Thursday, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. |
| Greg Dulcich | Questionable | Dulcich (ankle) remained limited at practice Thursday, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. |
| Malik Washington | Questionable | Washington (knee) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. |
| Kadyn Proctor | Questionable | Proctor sustained a concussion during Sunday's game against the Jets, Alain Poupart of SI.com reports. |
| Michael Taaffe | Questionable | questionable |
| Dante Trader Jr. | Questionable | questionable |
| Tucker Addington | Questionable | questionable |
| Reese Taylor | Questionable | questionable |
| Robert Beal Jr. | Active | Beal (hamstring) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Marcel Louis-Jacques of ESPN.com reports. |
| Willie Gay Jr. | Active | Gay (illness) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Marcel Louis-Jacques of ESPN.com reports. |
| Jaylen Wright | Active | Wright (quadriceps/foot) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Marcel Louis-Jacques of ESPN.com reports. |
| Jacob Rodriguez | Active | Rodriguez tallied four tackles (one solo) during Miami's win over the Jets on Sunday. |
| Jordyn Brooks | Active | Brooks posted nine tackles (five solo) during the Dolphins' win Sunday over the Jets. |
| Kevin Coleman Jr. | Active | Coleman did not catch his only target in the Dolphins' 28-25 win over the Jets on Sunday. |
| Chris Bell | Active | Bell caught three of his four targets for 25 yards in the Dolphins' 28-25 win over the Jets on Sunday. |
| Kaytron Allen | Active | Allen logged six snaps on special teams and didn't show up on the box score otherwise during Sunday's 28-25 win over the Jets. |
| Zane Gonzalez | Active | Gonzalez reverted to the Dolphins' practice squad Monday, per the NFL's transaction log. |
| Chukwuebuka Godrick | Active | |
| Marcellas Dial Jr. | Active | |
| Jalen Tolbert | Active | |
| Caleb Douglas | Active | Douglas (ankle) caught two of three targets for 70 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 28-25 win over the Jets. |
| Malik Willis | Active | Willis completed 14 of 21 passes for 208 yards and two touchdowns while rushing six times for 39 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 28-25 win over the Jets. |
| Ollie Gordon II | Active | Gordon rushed 25 times for 103 yards and a touchdown while catching one of three targets for no gain in Sunday's 28-25 win over the Jets. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
70.0°F, wind 3.1 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (CHI): ~1,176 miles, 1h time-zone shift east