Sun, Dec 13 at 1:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium
Expected score: DEN 27.9 – NYJ 18.3
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): DEN 1.45 · NYJ 3.21
Team ratings (Elo): DEN 1603.8 vs NYJ 1401.2. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
DEN (5-2) — 48 days rest
Last 5: 4-1 (3 straight wins)
| Oct 25, 2026 | ARI | W | 30-16 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | SEA | W | 17-14 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | LAC | W | 23-17 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | SF | L | 14-24 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | LAR | W | 30-26 |
NYJ (2-5) — 49 days rest
Last 5: 1-4 (2 straight losses)
| Oct 25, 2026 | MIA | L | 25-28 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | NE | L | 19-26 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | CLE | W | 17-12 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | CHI | L | 12-23 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | DET | L | 24-31 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2024 | NYJ 9 - DEN 10 | DEN |
| Oct 12, 2025 | NYJ 11 - DEN 13 | DEN |
Week 8 report — availability for Week 14 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 14.
DEN
| Talanoa Hufanga | Questionable | Hufanga (ankle) did not participate at the Broncos' practice Thursday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official website reports. |
| Zach Allen | Questionable | Allen (hamstring) was a limited participant at the Broncos' practice Thursday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official website reports. |
| Jaylen Waddle | Questionable | Waddle (chest) practiced in a limited capacity Thursday, Aric DiLalla of the Broncos' official site reports. |
| RJ Harvey | Questionable | Harvey (knee) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Brandon Jones | Questionable | questionable |
| Garett Bolles | Questionable | questionable |
| Tyler Badie | Injured Reserve | The Broncos placed Badie (thumb) on injured reserve Saturday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports. |
| Jonah Elliss | Injured Reserve | The Broncos placed Elliss (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports. |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | Active | Mims (ankle) practiced fully Thursday,Zac Stevens of TheDNVR.com reports. |
| Pat Surtain II | Active | Surtain (ankle) was a full practice participant Wednesday, Aric DiLalla of the Broncos' official site reports. |
| Alex Singleton | Active | Singleton recorded 19 tackles (12 solo) including 1.0 sacks during Sunday's 30-16 win at Arizona. |
| Evan Engram | Active | Engram caught one of three targets for two yards during Sunday's 30-16 win over the Cardinals. |
| Troy Franklin | Active | Franklin failed to bring in either of his two targets in the Broncos' 30-16 win over the Cardinals on Sunday. |
| Kage Casey | Active | |
| Tyler Onyedim | Active | |
| Jordan Jackson | Active | |
| Dallen Bentley | Active | |
| Courtland Sutton | Active | Sutton caught three of five targets for 45 yards during Sunday's 30-16 win over Arizona. |
| Jonah Coleman | Active | Coleman (ankle) rushed nine times for 54 yards and caught both of his targets for 15 yards in Sunday's 30-16 win over the Cardinals. |
| J.K. Dobbins | Active | Dobbins rushed six times for 23 yards and a touchdown and wasn't targeted in Sunday's 30-16 win over the Cardinals. |
| Bo Nix | Active | Nix completed 15 of 29 passes for 222 yards and a touchdown while rushing seven times for 73 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 30-16 win over the Cardinals. |
| Wil Lutz | Active | Lutz went 3-for-3 on field-goal tries and made all three of his PATs during Sunday's 30-16 win over Arizona. |
| Sam Ehlinger | Active | Ehlinger (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the emergency third quarterback in Sunday's game against the Cardinals, Aric DiLalla of the Broncos' official site reports. |
| Jonathon Cooper | Active | Cooper had his roster exemption removed by the Broncos on Saturday and is available for Sunday's road game against the Cardinals, Aric DiLalla of the Broncos' official site reports. |
| Kris Abrams-Draine | Active | Abrams-Draine recorded six tackles (four solo), three pass breakups, including an interception, and one forced fumble in Thursday night's 17-14 overtime win over the Seahawks. |
NYJ
| Breece Hall | Questionable | Hall (quadriceps) remained limited at Thursday's practice. |
| Joseph Ossai | Doubtful | Ossai (ankle) didn't participate in the Jets' practice Wednesday, Rich Cimini of ESPN.com reports. |
| David Bailey | Questionable | Bailey didn't practice Wednesday due to a groin injury. |
| T'Vondre Sweat | Doubtful | Sweat (knee) is week-to-week and is unlikely to suit up for Sunday's game against the Raiders, Rich Cimini of ESPN.com reported Wednesday. |
| Dylan Parham | Questionable | questionable |
| Max Mitchell | Questionable | questionable |
| Kiko Mauigoa | Injured Reserve | The Jets placed Mauigoa (quadriceps) on injured reserve Saturday, Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic reports. |
| Braelon Allen | Active | Allen (ankle) was a full participant at Thursday's practice. |
| Kene Nwangwu | Active | Nwangwu was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Garrett Wilson | Active | Wilson said Wednesday that he won't ask to be traded from the Jets, Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic reports. |
| Demario Davis | Active | Davis finished Sunday's Week 7 loss to Miami with three tackles (two solo) and one defensed pass. |
| Jamien Sherwood | Active | Sherwood totaled eight tackles (four solo) and two defensed passes Sunday in a loss to Miami. |
| Dane Belton | Active | Belton registered nine tackles (six solo) in Sunday's loss to the Dolphins. |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | Active | Fitzpatrick posted 10 tackles (six solo) Sunday in a loss to Miami. |
| Tim Patrick | Active | Patrick did not garner a target during Sunday's 28-25 loss to the Dolphins. |
| Adonai Mitchell | Active | Mitchell failed to haul in any of his three targets during the Jets' 28-25 loss to the Dolphins on Sunday. |
| Isaiah Davis | Active | Davis logged a five-yard carry and caught all three of his targets for 49 yards during Sunday's 28-25 loss to Miami. He also added a tackle on special teams. |
| Jack Heflin | Active | |
| Jarvis Brownlee Jr. | Active | |
| Kenyon Sadiq | Active | Sadiq caught his lone target for six yards in Sunday's 28-25 loss to the Dolphins. |
| Jason Sanders | Active | Sanders went 1-for-2 on field-goal tries and made both of his extra-point attempts during Sunday's 28-25 loss to Miami. |
| Mason Taylor | Active | Taylor caught all five of his targets for 62 yards and two touchdowns while adding a two-point conversion in Sunday's 28-25 loss to the Dolphins. |
| Geno Smith | Active | Smith completed 23 of 30 passes for 287 yards, three touchdowns and one interception in Sunday's 28-25 loss to the Dolphins. He also rushed twice for no gain and threw a successful two-point conversion. |
| Omar Cooper Jr. | Active | Cooper caught all five of his targets for 115 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 28-25 loss to the Dolphins. |
| Will McDonald IV | Active |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
50.4°F, wind 9.4 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (DEN): ~1,624 miles, 2h time-zone shift east