Sun, Dec 13 at 1:00 PM ET · Northwest Stadium
Expected score: HOU 24.1 – WSH 22.1
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): HOU 1.84 · WSH 2.19
Team ratings (Elo): HOU 1523.4 vs WSH 1428.6. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
HOU (2-5) — 49 days rest
Last 5: 2-3 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 25, 2026 | NYG | L | 21-27 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | JAX | W | 34-31 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | TEN | W | 26-3 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | DAL | L | 30-34 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | IND | L | 17-19 |
WSH (1-4-1) — 54 days rest
Last 5: 1-3-1 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 19, 2026 | SF | L | 17-23 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | NYG | T | 27-27 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | IND | L | 13-30 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | SEA | W | 33-31 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | DAL | L | 20-37 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| No meetings in coverage period | ||
Week 8 report — availability for Week 14 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 14.
HOU
| Jaylin Noel | Injured Reserve | Noel, who was placed on injured reserve earlier Wednesday, is expected to require surgery to address his toe injury and will miss the remainder of the season, Jonathan M. Alexander of the Houston Chronicle reports. |
| Jalen Pitre | Questionable | questionable |
| David Montgomery | Questionable | questionable |
| Reed Blankenship | Questionable | questionable |
| Blake Fisher | Questionable | questionable |
| Azeez Al-Shaair | Active | Al-Shaair recorded nine tackles (two solo) in a Week 7 overtime loss to the Giants on Sunday. |
| Henry To'oTo'o | Active | To'oTo'o notched 10 tackles (three solo), including 0.5 sacks, in Sunday's Week 7 overtime loss to the Giants. |
| M.J. Stewart | Active | Stewart finished with 12 tackles (five solo), including 0.5 sacks, and a defensed pass in Sunday's overtime loss to the Giants. |
| Foster Moreau | Active | Moreau played 21 offensive snaps and nine special-teams snaps in the Texans' 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants on Sunday. |
| Dare Ogunbowale | Active | Ogunbowale didn't record an offensive touch or target in Sunday's 24-21 overtime loss to the Giants. |
| Tank Dell | Active | Dell caught his only target for 43 yards and added a two-yard rush during Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants. |
| Kayshon Boutte | Active | Boutte caught one of two targets for 25 yards during Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss versus the Giants. |
| Marlin Klein | Active | |
| Febechi Nwaiwu | Active | |
| Nate Thomas | Active | |
| Dalton Schultz | Active | Schultz caught five of six targets for 45 yards in Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants. |
| Xavier Hutchinson | Active | Hutchinson caught three of six targets for 17 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants. He added 12 rushing yards on two attempts. |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | Active | Fairbairn went 2-for-2 on field-goal attempts and converted his only PAT in Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants. |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | Active | Harrison caught one of four targets for a six-yard touchdown in Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants. |
| C.J. Stroud | Active | Stroud completed 17 of 28 passes for 153 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants. He added two rushing attempts for four yards and threw a successful two-point conversion. |
| Woody Marks | Active | Marks rushed 19 times for 66 yards and caught his only target for 15 yards in Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants. |
| Nico Collins | Active | Collins caught two of five targets for six yards in Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants. |
| Brevin Jordan | Active | Jordan (foot) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Giants, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports. |
| Logan Hall | Active | |
| Jadeveon Clowney | Active |
WSH
| Treylon Burks | Questionable | Burks (foot) didn't practice Thursday. |
| Nick Allegretti | Questionable | questionable |
| John Bates | Questionable | Bates was a non-participant in Thursday's practice due to a shoulder injury. |
| Laremy Tunsil | Injured Reserve | Tunsil (triceps) could potentially return late in the season, Nicki Jhabvala of The Athletic reports. |
| Javon Kinlaw | Doubtful | Head coach Dan Quinn said Wednesday that Kinlaw (knee) is "unlikely" to play against the Eagles on Sunday, Zach Selby of the Commanders' official site reports. |
| Jer'Zhan Newton | Injured Reserve | The Commanders designated Newton (pectoral) for return to practice from their injured reserve list Wednesday. |
| Terry McLaurin | Injured Reserve | The Commanders placed McLaurin (knee) on injured reserve Wednesday, Zach Selby of the team's official site reports. |
| Jaylin Lane | Injured Reserve | Lane underwent surgery Oct. 9 to repair his fractured and dislocated ankle, and he is expected to be cleared for activities before OTAs, Tashan Reed of The Washington Post reports. |
| Charles Omenihu | Questionable | questionable |
| Stefon Diggs | Active | Diggs (hand/hamstring) was a full practice participant Thursday. |
| Van Jefferson | Active | The Commanders signed Jefferson to the active roster Wednesday, Zach Selby of the team's official site reports. |
| Marcus Mariota | Active | Mariota (knee) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Antonio Williams | Active | Coach Dan Quinn noted Monday that with Terry McLaurin (knee) out for the season, Stefon Diggs' workload isn't expected to change much, however others, notably Williams, should see added opportunities in McLaurin's looming absence, Nicki Jhabvala of The Athletic reports. |
| Sonny Styles | Active | Styles finished Monday's 23-17 loss to the 49ers with 13 tackles (seven solo) and one pass defense. |
| Drew Stevens | Active | Stevens made his only field-goal try and converted both of his extra-point attempts during Monday's 23-17 loss at San Francisco. |
| Austin Ekeler | Active | Ekeler logged a three-yard carry and caught both of his targets for four yards during the Commanders' 23-17 loss to the 49ers on Monday. |
| Dyami Brown | Active | Brown hauled in his only target for six yards during Monday's 23-17 loss versus San Francisco. |
| Jeremy McNichols | Active | McNichols accrued five rushes for 13 yards during Monday's 23-17 loss to the 49ers. |
| T.J. Maguranyanga | Active | |
| Isaac Yiadom | Active | |
| Tanoa Togiai | Active | |
| Fabian Moreau | Active | |
| Chig Okonkwo | Active | Okonkwo brought in all seven targets for 69 yards in the Commanders' 23-17 loss to the 49ers on Monday night. |
| Rachaad White | Active | White rushed seven times for 27 yards and brought in four of five targets for 30 yards and a touchdown in the Commanders' 23-17 loss to the 49ers on Monday night. |
| Jayden Daniels | Active | Daniels completed 29 of 40 passes for 300 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions while adding four rushes for 10 yards in the Commanders' 23-17 loss to the 49ers on Monday night. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
49.5°F, wind 11.2 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (HOU): ~1,232 miles, 1h time-zone shift east