Sun, Dec 13 at 1:00 PM ET · Lincoln Financial Field
Expected score: IND 19.8 – PHI 26.4
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): IND 2.73 · PHI 1.58
Team ratings (Elo): IND 1456.6 vs PHI 1486.6. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
IND (2-5) — 49 days rest
Last 5: 2-3 (3 straight losses)
| Oct 25, 2026 | MIN | L | 10-16 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | TEN | L | 20-26 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | PIT | L | 22-34 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | WSH | W | 30-13 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | HOU | W | 19-17 |
PHI (2-5) — 47 days rest
Last 5: 0-5 (5 straight losses)
| Oct 26, 2026 | DAL | L | 21-38 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | CAR | L | 14-25 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | JAX | L | 17-19 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | LAR | L | 20-24 |
| Sep 28, 2026 | CHI | L | 7-27 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| No meetings in coverage period | ||
Week 8 report — availability for Week 14 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 14.
IND
| Anthony Gould | Questionable | Gould (concussion) was a full participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Drew Ogletree | Questionable | Ogletree (knee) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Tyler Warren | Questionable | Warren (groin) was a limited participant at Thursday's practice. |
| Cam Taylor-Britt | Injured Reserve | The Colts placed Taylor-Britt on injured reserve Tuesday due to a groin injury, Nathan Brown of The Indianapolis Star reports. |
| Bryce Boettcher | Questionable | questionable |
| Justin Walley | Questionable | According to head coach Shane Steichen, Walley did not return to Sunday's 16-10 loss to Minnesota due to a knee injury, Kevin Bowen of 107.5 The Fan Indianapolis reports. |
| Alec Pierce | Injured Reserve | Colts head coach Shane Steichen said Monday that Pierce (heel) will "most likely not" have his 21-day practice window opened in Week 8, Jake Arthur of Roundtable.io reports. |
| Sauce Gardner | Active | Gardner (calf) practiced in full Thursday. |
| Matt Goncalves | Active | |
| Tim Smith | Active | |
| Jonathan Taylor | Active | Taylor told reporters Thursday that he hasn't requested a trade out of Indianapolis, Stephen Holder of ESPN.com reports. "I haven't heard anything, and I can't control that," Taylor said regarding the possibility of being traded. "Obviously, you guys know that I'm always proud to wear the horseshoe, proud to be here." |
| CJ Allen | Active | Allen (ankle) was listed as a full participant in Wednesday's walkthrough. |
| Josh Downs | Active | Downs formally requested a trade from the Colts on Wednesday, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com reports. |
| Akeem Davis-Gaither | Active | Davis-Gaither recorded seven tackles (three solo) in Sunday's loss to Minnesota. |
| Adetomiwa Adebawore | Active | Adebawore finished Sunday's loss to Minnesota with five tackles (four solo), including 2.0 sacks, and a defensed pass. |
| A.J. Haulcy | Active | Haulcy produced nine tackles (five solo) in a loss to the Vikings on Sunday. |
| DJ Giddens | Active | Giddens did not play a single snap during Sunday's 13-10 loss to the Vikings. |
| Will Mallory | Active | Mallory did not catch any of his three targets during Sunday's 16-10 loss to Minnesota. |
| Mo Alie-Cox | Active | Alie-Cox failed to haul in either of his targets during the Colts' 16-10 loss to the Vikings on Sunday. |
| Laquon Treadwell | Active | Treadwell caught both of his targets for 19 yards in the Colts' 16-10 loss to the Vikings on Sunday. |
| Seth McGowan | Active | McGowan turned 11 carries into 46 yards, caught his only target for two yards and added 140 yards as a kick returner during Sunday's 16-10 loss to the Vikings. |
| Keenan Allen | Active | Allen caught all three of his targets for 31 yards during Sunday's 16-10 loss to the Vikings. |
| Riley Leonard | Active | |
| Dalton Tucker | Active | |
| Daniel Jones | Active | Colts head coach Shane Steichen said that Jones will remain the team's starting quarterback in Sunday's game against the Jaguars, Mike Chappell of Fox 59 News Indianapolis reports. |
PHI
| DeVonta Smith | Questionable | Smith (hamstring) missed Thursday's practice. |
| Saquon Barkley | Questionable | Barkley (hamstring/back) didn't practice Thursday. |
| Marcus Epps | Questionable | questionable |
| Dontayvion Wicks | Questionable | Wicks (ankle) isn't participating in Thursday's practice, Dave Zangaro of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports. |
| Nolan Smith Jr. | Questionable | Smith (concussion) was listed as a limited participant in Wednesday's walkthrough. |
| Michael Carter II | Questionable | Carter (abdomen) was estimated to be a limited participant in Wednesday's walkthrough. |
| Jihaad Campbell | Questionable | Campbell (hamstring/quadriceps) didn't participate in Wednesday's walkthrough. |
| Moro Ojomo | Questionable | questionable |
| Jalyx Hunt | Questionable | questionable |
| Jonathan Jones | Questionable | questionable |
| Jonathan Greenard | Questionable | questionable |
| Dameon Pierce | Injured Reserve | The Eagles placed Pierce (undisclosed) on injured reserve Wednesday |
| Jalen Carter | Active | |
| Smael Mondon Jr. | Active | |
| Jake Elliott | Active | Elliott made all three of his PAT attempts and didn't attempt a field goal in Monday's 38-21 loss to the Cowboys. |
| Elijah Mitchell | Active | Mitchell reverted to the Eagles' practice squad Tuesday. |
| Jaydon Blue | Active | The Eagles signed Blue from the practice squad to the active roster Wednesday. |
| Cooper DeJean | Active | DeJean recorded seven tackles (three solo) during Monday's 38-21 loss versus the Cowboys. |
| Zack Baun | Active | Baun recorded nine tackles (two solo) and a pass defensed during Monday's 38-21 loss versus the Cowboys. |
| Elijah Moore | Active | Moore caught both of his targets for 16 yards during Monday's 38-21 loss to the Cowboys. |
| Eli Stowers | Active | Stowers failed to haul in his lone target during Monday's 38-21 loss to Dallas. |
| Darius Cooper | Active | Cooper caught one of three passes for 17 yards during the Eagles' 38-21 loss to the Cowboys on Monday. |
| Jake Majors | Active | |
| Hollywood Brown | Active | Brown secured two of five targets for 30 yards in the Eagles' 38-21 loss to the Cowboys on Monday night. |
| Dallas Goedert | Active | Goedert secured five of seven targets for 48 yards in the Eagles' 38-21 loss to the Cowboys on Monday night. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
52.3°F, wind 9.4 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (IND): ~583 miles, no time-zone change