Sun, Dec 13 at 1:00 PM ET · M&T Bank Stadium
Expected score: TB 19.6 – BAL 26.6
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): TB 2.79 · BAL 1.56
Team ratings (Elo): TB 1457.9 vs BAL 1493.9. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
TB (2-5) — 49 days rest
Last 5: 2-3 (1 straight win)
| Oct 25, 2026 | CAR | W | 43-13 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | PIT | L | 19-26 |
| Oct 8, 2026 | DAL | W | 24-16 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | GB | L | 14-17 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | MIN | L | 16-23 |
BAL (4-3) — 49 days rest
Last 5: 3-2 (2 straight losses)
| Oct 25, 2026 | CIN | L | 13-35 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | CLE | L | 10-13 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | ATL | W | 30-23 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | TEN | W | 24-18 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | DAL | W | 34-31 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2024 | TB 31 - BAL 41 | BAL |
Week 8 report — availability for Week 14 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 14.
TB
| Luke Goedeke | Questionable | Goedeke (calf) did not participate at the Buccaneers' practice Thursday. |
| Emeka Egbuka | Questionable | Egbuka (concussion) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Kenny Gainwell | Questionable | Gainwell (hip) was a limited participant at Thursday's practice, Scott Smith of the Buccaneers' official site reports. |
| Josh Hayes | Injured Reserve | Hayes suffered a small setback in his recovery from a knee injury, Greg Auman of Fox Sports reports. |
| Christian Rozeboom | Injured Reserve | Rozeboom (finger) was placed on injured reserve by the Buccaneers on Thursday, Scott Smith of the team's official website reports. |
| Josiah Trotter | Active | Trotter (illness) was a full participant at the Buccaneers' practice Thursday. |
| Yaya Diaby | Active | |
| Antoine Winfield Jr. | Active | Winfield (ribs) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers' official site reports. |
| Baker Mayfield | Active | Mayfield, who was a full practice participant Wednesday, said that he's still taking a day-by-day approach when it comes to wearing a glove to protect his dislocated right thumb, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers' official site reports. |
| Tykee Smith | Active | Smith posted seven tackles (one solo), an interception and a blocked extra-point attempt Sunday in a 43-13 Week 7 win against Carolina. |
| Ted Hurst III | Active | Hurst didn't record a catch on one target in Sunday's 43-13 win over the Panthers. |
| Jalon Daniels | Active | Daniels was back in his primary reserve role behind Baker Mayfield in Sunday's 43-13 win over the Panthers. |
| Billy Schrauth | Active | |
| DeMonte Capehart | Active | |
| Ayden Garnes | Active | |
| Cade Otton | Active | Otton failed to catch his only target during Sunday's 43-13 win over the Panthers. |
| Sean Tucker | Active | Tucker rushed seven times for 52 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 43-13 win against Carolina. |
| Tez Johnson | Active | Johnson caught both of his targets for 33 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 43-13 win over the Panthers. |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | Active | Godwin secured four of five targets for 27 yards in the Buccaneers' 43-13 win over the Panthers on Sunday. |
| Chase McLaughlin | Active | McLaughlin made both of his field-goal tries while going 5-for-5 on PATs during Sunday's 43-13 win over the Panthers. |
| Bucky Irving | Active | Irving rushed 24 times for 106 yards and two touchdowns while bringing in one of two targets for four yards in the Buccaneers' 43-13 win over the Panthers on Sunday. He also committed a fumble that stayed with Tampa Bay. |
| Zyon McCollum | Active | McCollum (illness) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Panthers, Greg Auman of Fox Sports reports. |
| David Sills V | Active | Sills (hamstring) was activated from injured reserve by the Buccaneers on Thursday, Scott Smith of the team's official website reports. |
| Calijah Kancey | Active | |
| Benjamin Morrison | Active | Morrison (quadriceps) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
BAL
| Olaivavega Ioane | Questionable | Ioane (knee) was a limited participant at the Ravens' practice Thursday. |
| T.J. Tampa | Injured Reserve | Tampa (knee) was a full participant at the Ravens' practice Thursday. |
| Roquan Smith | Questionable | Smith (knee) was limited in Thursday's practice. |
| Kyle Hamilton | Questionable | Hamilton (knee) was limited in practice Thursday. |
| Lamar Jackson | Questionable | Jackson (ankle) was a full participant at Thursday's practice, Jeff Zrebiec of The Athletic reports. |
| Jaylinn Hawkins | Questionable | Hawkins (knee) was a non-participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Adam Randall | Injured Reserve | The Ravens opened Randall's (neck) 21-day practice window Wednesday. |
| John Simpson | Questionable | questionable |
| Tavius Robinson | Injured Reserve | The Ravens placed Robinson (pectoral) on injured reserve Saturday. |
| Broderick Washington Jr. | Active | Washington (ankle) logged a full practice Thursday. |
| Ronnie Stanley | Active | Stanley (toe) practiced in full Thursday. |
| John Jenkins | Active | |
| Josh Cuevas | Active | Cuevas caught two of three targets for 35 yards during the Ravens' 35-13 loss to the Bengals on Sunday. |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | Active | Lane caught three of five targets for 25 yards during Sunday's 35-13 loss to the Bengals. |
| Justice Hill | Active | Hill took three carries for seven yards and caught three of four targets for 26 yards during Sunday's 35-13 loss versus the Bengals. |
| Rashod Bateman | Active | Bateman caught two of four targets for 33 yards during Sunday's 35-13 loss to the Bengals. |
| Andrew Vorhees | Active | |
| Elijah Sarratt | Active | |
| Mark Andrews | Active | Andrews caught three of four targets for 23 yards in Sunday's 35-13 loss to the Bengals. |
| Tyler Huntley | Active | Huntley completed 23 of 34 passes for 298 yards with a touchdown and an interception while adding three rushes for 12 yards in the Ravens' 35-13 loss to the Bengals on Sunday. |
| Tyler Loop | Active | Loop went 2-for-2 on field-goal tries and made his only PAT during Sunday's 35-13 loss to the Bengals. |
| Derrick Henry | Active | Henry rushed 17 times for 45 yards and brought in one of two target for four yards in the Ravens' 35-13 loss to the Bengals on Sunday. |
| Zay Flowers | Active | Flowers brought in eight of 11 targets for 137 yards and a touchdown in the Ravens' 35-13 loss to the Bengals on Sunday. |
| Cam Jurgens | Active | Jurgens (concussion) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Bengals. |
| Matt Hibner | Active | Hibner (hand) was a full participant at practice Thursday. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
49.5°F, wind 11.2 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (TB): ~843 miles, no time-zone change