Sun, Dec 13 at 4:25 PM ET · Paycor Stadium
Expected score: KC 21.2 – CIN 25.0
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): KC 2.37 · CIN 1.73
Team ratings (Elo): KC 1496.2 vs CIN 1486.4. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
KC (5-1) — 48 days rest
Last 5: 4-1 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 25, 2026 | SEA | L | 3-20 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | LAC | W | 22-6 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | LV | W | 30-27 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | MIA | W | 24-10 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | IND | W | 33-30 |
CIN (4-2) — 49 days rest
Last 5: 3-2 (2 straight wins)
| Oct 25, 2026 | BAL | W | 35-13 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | MIA | W | 31-24 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | JAX | L | 17-22 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | PIT | L | 27-30 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | HOU | W | 20-6 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2024 | KC 26 - CIN 25 | KC |
Week 8 report — availability for Week 14 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 14.
KC
| Mansoor Delane | Questionable | Delane (shoulder) did not practice Thursday. |
| Rashee Rice | Questionable | Rice (hamstring/knee) remained a limited participant at Thursday's practice. |
| Travis Kelce | Questionable | Kelce (ankle) was listed as a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Jaylon Moore | Questionable | Moore (concussion) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Omarr Norman-Lott | Out | The Chiefs designated Norman-Lott (knee) to return from injured reserve Wednesday. |
| L'Jarius Sneed | Questionable | questionable |
| Brashard Smith | Injured Reserve | The Chiefs placed Smith (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday. |
| Cyrus Allen | Active | Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said Wednesday that Allen will "get a little bit more [snaps]" during Sunday's game against the Broncos, Nate Taylor of ESPN.com reports. |
| Harrison Butker | Active | Head coach Andy Reid said Wednesday that Butker will "probably" serve as the Chiefs' kicker in Sunday's game against the Broncos, Sam McDowell of The Kansas City Star reports. |
| Chamarri Conner | Active | Conner finished Sunday's 20-3 loss to Seattle with seven tackles (two solo). |
| Nohl Williams | Active | Williams finished Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks with 10 tackles (four solo) and one interception. |
| Nick Bolton | Active | Bolton registered 11 tackles (six solo) during the Chiefs' 20-3 loss to the Seahawks on Sunday. |
| Drue Tranquill | Active | Tranquill finished Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks with 12 tackles (four solo). |
| Andrew Armstrong | Active | Armstrong caught one of two targets for three yards during Sunday night's 20-3 loss to Seattle. |
| Noah Gray | Active | Gray caught three passes on as many targets for 44 yards during Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks. |
| Emmett Johnson | Active | Johnson caught two of three passes for 17 yards and returned three kickoffs for 81 yards during Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks. He also added two tackles on special teams. |
| Ben VanSumeren | Active | |
| Jack Pyburn | Active | |
| Jadon Canady | Active | |
| Xavier Worthy | Active | Worthy caught three of six targets for 11 yards in Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks. |
| Patrick Mahomes | Active | Mahomes completed 19 of 33 passes for 165 yards, no touchdowns and one interception in Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks. He added two rushing attempts for 14 yards. |
| Kenneth Walker III | Active | Walker rushed 14 times for 36 yards while catching four of five targets for 21 yards in Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks. |
| Garrett Nussmeier | Active | Nussmeier (coach's decision) is inactive as the emergency third quarterback for Sunday night's game against the Seahawks. |
| Cooper McDonald | Active | The Chiefs activated McDonald (knee) from injured reserve Saturday. |
| Jaydn Ott | Active | The Chiefs signed Ott from the practice squad to the active roster Saturday. |
CIN
| Andrei Iosivas | Injured Reserve | Iosivas (thumb) is making good progress in his rehab, Mike Petraglia of CLNSCincy.com reports. |
| Joe Giles-Harris | Questionable | questionable |
| Jordan Battle | Questionable | questionable |
| Erick All Jr. | Injured Reserve | Bengals head coach Zac Taylor confirmed Wednesday that All has been diagnosed with a torn ACL in his right knee and will require season-ending surgery, Jay Morrison of SI.com reports. |
| Kyle Dugger | Out | Dugger (quadriceps) won't play in Sunday's game against the Titans, Paul Dehner Jr. of The Athletic reports. |
| Ja'Marr Chase | Active | Chase (ankle) was a full participant in Thursday's practice, Mike Petraglia of CLNSCincy.com reports. |
| Barrett Carter | Active | Carter recorded nine tackles (three solo) and a pass defense during Sunday's 35-13 win over the Ravens. |
| Boye Mafe | Active | Mafe finished Sunday's 35-13 win over the Ravens with five tackles (three solo), including 1.5 sacks. |
| Bryan Cook | Active | Cook recorded nine tackles (six solo), including 0.5 sacks, during the Bengals' 35-13 win over the Ravens on Sunday. |
| Demetrius Knight Jr. | Active | Knight totaled eight tackles (two solo) and an interception during the Bengals' win over the Ravens on Sunday. |
| Dohnte Meyers | Active | Meyers failed to catch either of his two targets in Sunday's 35-13 win over the Ravens. |
| Cam Grandy | Active | The Bengals signed Grandy off the Vikings' practice squad Monday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports. |
| Connor Lew | Active | |
| Landon Robinson | Active | |
| Shemar Stewart | Active | |
| Myles Hinton | Active | |
| Russ Yeast | Active | |
| Mike Gesicki | Active | Gesicki caught his only target for a six-yard touchdown in Sunday's 35-13 win over the Ravens. |
| Samaje Perine | Active | Perine rushed four times for 16 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 35-13 win over the Ravens. |
| Drew Sample | Active | Sample caught both of his targets for 24 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 35-13 win over the Ravens. |
| Chase Brown | Active | Brown rushed 11 times for 39 yards and brought in four of five targets for 19 yards in the Bengals' 35-13 win over the Ravens on Sunday. |
| Evan McPherson | Active | McPherson did not attempt a field goal and made all five of his PATs in Sunday's 35-13 win over Baltimore. |
| Joe Burrow | Active | Burrow completed 22 of 30 passes for 292 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions while adding two rushes for 12 yards in the Bengals' 35-13 win over the Ravens on Sunday. |
| Tee Higgins | Active | Higgins secured six of seven targets for 148 yards and a touchdown in the Bengals' 35-13 win over the Ravens on Sunday. |
| Colbie Young | Active | Young (knee) was not listed on the Bengals' injury report Wednesday. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
46.8°F, wind 4.5 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (KC): ~534 miles, 1h time-zone shift east