Sun, Dec 13 at 8:20 PM ET · Lambeau Field
Expected score: BUF 23.2 – GB 23.0
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): BUF 1.98 · GB 2.02
Team ratings (Elo): BUF 1590.2 vs GB 1521.5. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
BUF (5-1) — 56 days rest
Last 5: 4-1 (2 straight wins)
| Oct 18, 2026 | LV | W | 33-30 |
| Oct 12, 2026 | LAR | W | 37-34 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | NE | L | 26-29 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | LAC | W | 24-16 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | DET | W | 41-31 |
GB (5-3) — 45 days rest
Last 5: 4-1 (1 straight win)
| Oct 29, 2026 | CAR | W | 27-19 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | DET | L | 17-20 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | DAL | W | 23-13 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | CHI | W | 31-7 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | TB | W | 17-14 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| No meetings in coverage period | ||
Week 8 report — availability for Week 14 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 14.
BUF
| Dalton Kincaid | Questionable | Kincaid (chest) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| DJ Moore | Questionable | Moore (shoulder) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Joe Andreessen | Questionable | questionable |
| Ray Davis | Questionable | Davis didn't participate in Thursday's practice due to an illness, Matt Parrino of The Syracuse Post-Standard reports. |
| Tyrell Shavers | Out | The Bills designated Shavers (knee) to return from the reserve/PUP list Wednesday, but he will not play against the Ravens on Sunday, Cameron Wolfe of NFL Network reports. |
| TJ Parker | Questionable | questionable |
| Bradley Chubb | Questionable | questionable |
| Dee Alford | Questionable | questionable |
| Spencer Brown | Questionable | questionable |
| C.J. Gardner-Johnson | Suspension | reserve-sus |
| Ed Oliver | Active | Oliver (knee) was a full participant at the Bills' practice Thursday. |
| T.J. Sanders | Active | |
| Sam Franklin Jr. | Active | The NFL reduced Franklin's discipline from a one-game suspension to a fine of $14,926, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports. |
| Dorian Williams | Active | Williams logged five tackles (three solo) and one pass defensed for an interception in the Bills' 33-30 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Davison Igbinosun | Active | Defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard praised Igbinosun's play earlier this week and plans to keep giving the rookie a good amount of playing time, Alec White of the Bills' official site reports. Said Leonard, "I think what he's done the last couple weeks, he's definitely earned a high majority of the snaps at the corner position. I know what I'm getting, play in and play out." |
| Dawson Knox | Active | Knox caught his only target for no gain during Sunday's 33-30 win at Las Vegas. |
| Tyler Bass | Active | Bass converted all four of his field-goal attempts and all three of his extra-point tries during Buffalo's win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Ty Johnson | Active | Johnson logged a three-yard carry and caught both of his targets for 24 yards during the Bills' 33-30 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Joshua Palmer | Active | Palmer caught one of two targets for 37 yards during Buffalo's 33-30 win over Las Vegas on Sunday. |
| Mike Danna | Active | |
| Jude Bowry | Active | |
| Ar'maj Reed-Adams | Active | |
| Keon Coleman | Active | Coleman brought in four of six targets for 59 yards and a touchdown in the Bills' 33-30 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Khalil Shakir | Active | Shakir brought in four of six targets for 34 yards and a touchdown in the Bills' 33-30 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Josh Allen | Active | Allen completed 23 of 33 passes for 255 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions and rushed five times for one yard in the Bills' 33-30 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
GB
| Christian Watson | Questionable | Watson said he suffered a broken rib in Thursday night's 27-19 win over the Panthers, Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com reports. |
| Kaleb Johnson | Out | Johnson (coach's decision) is inactive for Thursday's game against the Panthers, Mike Spofford of the team's official site reports. |
| Jonnu Smith | Out | Smith (coach's decision) is inactive for Thursday's game against the Panthers Mike Spofford of the team's official site reports. |
| Sean Rhyan | Out | inactive |
| Travis Glover | Out | inactive |
| Donovan Jennings | Out | inactive |
| Zaire Franklin | Out | inactive |
| Micah Parsons | Out | Packers head coach Matt LaFleur said Tuesday that Parsons (knee) has "a chance" to resume practicing next week, Matt Schneidman of The Athletic reports. |
| MarShawn Lloyd | Active | Lloyd rushed three times for seven yards and brought in his only target for nine yards in the Packers' 27-19 win over the Panthers on Thursday. |
| Trey Smack | Active | Smack converted three of four extra-point tries and didn't attempt a field goal Thursday in a 27-19 win over Carolina. |
| Jordan Love | Active | Love completed 30 of 41 passes for 288 yards with three touchdowns and one interception and recovered a fumble in the Packers' 27-19 win over the Panthers on Thursday. |
| Tucker Kraft | Active | Kraft secured all six targets for 53 yards and a touchdown in the Packers' 27-19 win over the Panthers on Thursday. |
| Matthew Golden | Active | Golden brought in seven of 13 targets for 79 yards and a touchdown in the Packers' 27-19 win over the Panthers on Thursday. |
| Josh Jacobs | Active | Jacobs rushed 21 times for 39 yards and a touchdown and brought in all six targets for 13 yards and another score in the Packers' 27-19 win over the Panthers on Thursday. |
| Devonte Wyatt | Active | Wyatt (ankle) is active for Thursday's game against the Panthers, Mike Spofford of the team's official site reports. |
| Keisean Nixon | Active | Nixon (shoulder) is active for Thursday's game against Carolina, Mike Spofford of the team's official site reports. |
| Anthony Campbell | Active | |
| Brenton Cox Jr. | Active | |
| Aaron Banks | Active | |
| Evan Williams | Active | Williams finished Sunday's 20-17 loss to the Lions with nine tackles (five solo) and one pass defense. |
| Isaiah McDuffie | Active | McDuffie logged 11 tackles (six solo), one fumble and one fumble recovery during the Packers' 20-17 loss to the Lions on Sunday. |
| Xavier McKinney | Active | McKinney posted 10 tackles (four solo) during Sunday's 20-17 loss to the Lions. |
| Bo Melton | Active | Melton caught one of his two targets for four yards and logged a 24-yard kickoff return in the Packers' 20-17 loss to the Lions on Sunday. |
| Savion Williams | Active | Williams caught three passes on as many targets for 47 yards and turned two carries into four yards during the Packers' 20-17 loss to the Lions on Sunday. |
| Benjamin St-Juste | Active | St-Juste (hamstring) was estimated as a full participant on Monday's practice report, Matt Schneidman of The Athletic reports. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
44.4°F, wind 3.6 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (BUF): ~479 miles, 1h time-zone shift west