Mon, Dec 14 at 8:15 PM ET · EverBank Stadium
Expected score: PIT 19.5 – JAX 26.7
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): PIT 2.81 · JAX 1.55
Team ratings (Elo): PIT 1537.9 vs JAX 1576.0. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
PIT (5-2) — 50 days rest
Last 5: 4-1 (3 straight wins)
| Oct 25, 2026 | NO | W | 16-10 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | TB | W | 26-19 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | IND | W | 34-22 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | CLE | L | 24-27 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | CIN | W | 30-27 |
JAX (4-2) — 57 days rest
Last 5: 3-2 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 18, 2026 | HOU | L | 31-34 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | PHI | W | 19-17 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | CIN | W | 22-17 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | NE | W | 35-6 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | DEN | L | 13-20 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| No meetings in coverage period | ||
Week 8 report — availability for Week 14 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 14.
PIT
| Ben Skowronek | Questionable | Skowronek (calf) practiced in a limited capacity Thursday, Teresa Varley of the Steelers' official site reports. |
| Alex Highsmith | Questionable | questionable |
| Doneiko Slaughter | Questionable | questionable |
| Brandin Echols | Questionable | questionable |
| Sebastian Joseph-Day | Injured Reserve | Joseph-Day (triceps) was placed on injured reserve by the Steelers on Thursday, Teresa Varley of the team's official website reports. |
| Jalen Ramsey | Active | |
| Payton Wilson | Active | Wilson totaled six tackles (three solo) and an interception during Pittsburgh's win over the Saints on Sunday. |
| Patrick Queen | Active | Queen compiled 10 tackles (seven solo), including 1.0 sacks, during Pittsburgh's win over the Saints on Sunday. |
| Germie Bernard | Active | Bernard caught three of five targets for 27 yards in Sunday's 16-10 win over the Saints. |
| Brandon Smith | Active | Smith reverted to the Steelers' practice squad Monday, per the NFL's transaction log. |
| Darnell Washington | Active | Washington caught his lone target for a four-yard touchdown in Sunday's 16-10 win over the Saints in Paris. |
| Will Howard | Active | |
| Drew Allar | Active | |
| Eli Heidenreich | Active | |
| Terell Smith | Active | |
| Pat Freiermuth | Active | Freiermuth caught two of four targets for 20 yards in Sunday's 16-10 win over the Saints. |
| Chris Boswell | Active | Boswell made each of his three field-goal attempts and his lone extra-point try in a 16-10 victory over the Saints on Sunday in Paris. |
| DK Metcalf | Active | Metcalf two of six targets for 56 yards in Sunday's 16-10 win over the Saints. |
| Rico Dowdle | Active | Dowdle carried the ball nine times for 41 yards and caught all six of his targets for 45 yards in Sunday's 16-10 win over New Orleans. |
| Aaron Rodgers | Active | Rodgers completed 19 of 30 passes for 212 passes and a touchdown in Sunday's 16-10 win over the Saints. He added six yards on three carries. |
| Jaylen Warren | Active | Warren carried the ball 18 times for 101 yards and caught three of four targets for 36 yards in Sunday's 16-10 win over the Saints. |
| DeShon Elliott | Active | Elliott (knee) is active for Sunday's game against the Saints in Paris. |
| Mason Rudolph | Active | Rudolph is active for Sunday's game against the Saints in Paris, Teresa Varley of the Steelers' official site reports. |
| T.J. Watt | Active | Watt (calf) practiced fully Friday and doesn't carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Saints. |
| Jaquan Brisker | Active | Brisker posted seven tackles (four solo) during the Steelers' 26-19 overtime win over the Buccaneers on Sunday. |
JAX
| Antonio Johnson | Questionable | Johnson (ankle) sat out practice both Wednesday and Thursday. |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | Questionable | Allen (hamstring) was limited in practice Thursday. |
| Jakobi Meyers | Questionable | Meyers (hamstring) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Jahlani Tavai | Questionable | questionable |
| Ruke Orhorhoro | Questionable | questionable |
| Anton Harrison | Injured Reserve | Harrison was diagnosed with a torn ACL while undergoing a procedure on his right knee Thursday, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports. |
| Ross Matiscik | Questionable | questionable |
| Montaric Brown | Active | Brown (hamstring) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Foyesade Oluokun | Active | Oluokun logged eight tackles (four solo) in the Jaguars' 34-31 loss to the Texans in London on Sunday. |
| Josh Cameron | Active | Cameron didn't garner a target and recorded 46 kickoff-return yards during Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. |
| Cam Little | Active | Little made his sole field-goal attempt and all four of his PATs in the Jaguars' 34-31 loss to the Texans on Sunday in London. |
| Nate Boerkircher | Active | Boerkircher caught both of his targets for eight yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. |
| Jalen Huskey | Active | |
| Albert Regis | Active | |
| Wesley Williams | Active | |
| CJ Williams | Active | |
| Brenton Strange | Active | Strange caught five of seven targets for 44 yards during Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | Active | Rodriguez rushed 11 times for 55 yards while failing to reel in his only target during Sunday's 34-31 loss to Houston. |
| Travis Hunter | Active | Hunter caught all four of his targets for 59 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans in London. He also recorded three tackles and an interception. |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | Active | Thomas didn't haul in either of his two targets during Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans in London. |
| Parker Washington | Active | Washington caught four of 11 targets for 64 yards in Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. |
| Trevor Lawrence | Active | Lawrence completed 24 of 41 passes for 306 yards and four touchdowns with one interception in Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. He added 11 rushing yards on three carries. |
| Bhayshul Tuten | Active | Tuten carried the ball 12 times for 39 yards and caught all four of his targets for 48 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans. |
| Ameer Abdullah | Active | |
| Eric Murray | Active | Murray (concussion) does not have an injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Texans. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
62.1°F, wind 3.8 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (PIT): ~705 miles, no time-zone change