Thu, Dec 17 at 8:15 PM ET · SoFi Stadium
Expected score: SF 25.1 – LAC 21.1
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): SF 1.72 · LAC 2.39
Team ratings (Elo): SF 1596.3 vs LAC 1474.2. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
SF (6-1) — 53 days rest
Last 5: 4-1 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 25, 2026 | ATL | L | 20-29 |
| Oct 19, 2026 | WSH | W | 23-17 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | SEA | W | 32-29 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | DEN | W | 24-14 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | ARI | W | 36-30 |
LAC (0-6) — 60 days rest
Last 5: 0-5 (5 straight losses)
| Oct 18, 2026 | KC | L | 6-22 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | DEN | L | 17-23 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | SEA | L | 23-30 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | BUF | L | 16-24 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | LV | L | 14-26 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| No meetings in coverage period | ||
Week 8 report — availability for Week 15 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 15.
SF
| Marques Sigle | Questionable | questionable |
| Garret Wallow | Questionable | questionable |
| Luke Gifford | Questionable | questionable |
| Upton Stout | Questionable | Stout (shoulder) was only active as an emergency depth option during Sunday's loss to the Falcons, David Lombardi of SFStandard.com reported Monday. |
| Nick Bosa | Questionable | San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan said Monday that Bosa (knee) "has a chance" to return to action Nov. 8 versus the Raiders following a Week 8 bye, David Lombardi of SFStandard.com reports. |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | Questionable | Samuel (hamstring) has a chance to return following the 49ers' Week 8 bye, Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area reports. |
| Demarcus Robinson | Injured Reserve | 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan reiterated Monday that Robinson (ankle) has a chance to return following the team's Week 8 bye, David Lombardi of SFStandard.com reports. |
| De'Zhaun Stribling | Injured Reserve | Stribling (ankle) remains on track to return in December, David Lombardi of SFStandard.com reports. |
| Mike Evans | Questionable | Evans (Achilles) is expected to return after San Francisco's Week 8 bye, David Lombardi of SF Standard reports. |
| Christian McCaffrey | Questionable | McCaffrey is dealing with a mild hamstring strain rather than a quadriceps injury, and the 49ers believe he'll be ready following the team's Week 8 bye, David Lombardi of SF Standard reports. |
| Dre Greenlaw | Active | Greenlaw posted 12 tackles (four solo) in Sunday's loss to the Falcons. |
| Fred Warner | Active | Warner recorded 13 tackles (six solo) Sunday in a Week 7 loss to Atlanta. |
| Christian Kirk | Active | Kirk played 20 snaps on offense but didn't show up in the box score otherwise during Sunday's 29-20 loss to Atlanta. |
| Brandin Cooks | Active | Cooks caught one of three targets for 13 yards during Sunday's 29-20 loss to Atlanta. |
| Jacob Cowing | Active | Cowing caught three of five passes for 38 yards, added a 10-yard carry and returned one kickoff for 28 yards during Sunday's 29-20 loss to the Falcons. |
| Jordan James | Active | James logged a six-yard carry, turned his lone target into an 11-yard catch and registered 119 yards on four kickoff returns during the 49ers' 29-20 loss to the Falcons on Sunday. |
| Kurtis Rourke | Active | |
| Brock Purdy | Active | Purdy completed 27 of 40 passes for 288 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions and added two carries for five yards in the 49ers' 29-20 loss to the Falcons on Sunday. |
| Kyle Juszczyk | Active | Juszczyk caught all three of his targets for 11 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 29-20 loss to Atlanta. |
| Eddy Pineiro | Active | Pineiro did not attempt a field goal while going 2-for-3 on PATs in Sunday's 26-20 loss to the Falcons. |
| Jordan Watkins | Active | Watkins brought in three of six targets for 56 yards in the 49ers' 29-20 loss to the Falcons on Sunday. |
| Kaelon Black | Active | Black rushed 12 times for 63 yards and a touchdown and brought in one of three targets for minus-4 yards in the 49ers' 29-20 loss to the Falcons on Sunday. He also lost a fumble and returned one kickoff for 34 yards. |
| George Kittle | Active | Kittle brought in eight of 10 targets for 88 yards and lost a fumble in the 49ers' 29-20 loss to the Falcons on Sunday. |
| Siran Neal | Active | |
| Mykel Williams | Active | Williams (knee) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Falcons. |
LAC
| Brenen Thompson | Questionable | Thompson (quadriceps/hamstring) did not practice Thursday. |
| Donte Jackson | Questionable | Jackson (hamstring) was limited in Thursday's practice. |
| Tre' Harris | Questionable | Harris (hamstring) remained limited in Thursday's practice. |
| Ladd McConkey | Questionable | McConkey (concussion) was a full participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Denzel Perryman | Injured Reserve | Head coach Jim Harbaugh said Wednesday that Perryman (undisclosed) is "close" to returning from injured reserve, Alex Insdorf of BoltBeat.com reports. |
| Deane Leonard | Questionable | Leonard (concussion) did not participate in Wednesday's practice, Alex Insdorf of BoltBeat.com reports. |
| Derwin James Jr. | Doubtful | James (hamstring) suffered a setback in his recovery and will likely miss Sunday's game against the Rams, Eric Smith of the Chargers' official site reports. |
| Rodney Shelley | Questionable | questionable |
| Kayode Awosika | Questionable | questionable |
| Bud Dupree | Active | Dupree (neck) is off the Chargers' injury report ahead of the team's matchup versus the Rams on Sunday. |
| Joe Alt | Active | Alt (neck) was not listed on the Chargers' official injury report Wednesday. |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith | Active | Lambert-Smith caught five of nine targets for 32 yards during Sunday's 22-6 loss at Kansas City. He also lost a fumble. |
| Cameron Dicker | Active | Dicker made both of his field-goal attempts in the Chargers' 22-6 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday. |
| Charlie Kolar | Active | Kolar caught three of six targets for 20 yards during the Chargers' 22-6 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday. |
| Kimani Vidal | Active | Vidal turned seven carries into 21 yards and caught three of four passes for 19 yards during the Chargers' 22-6 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday. |
| Keaton Mitchell | Active | Mitchell turned two carries into four yards, failed to haul in his lone target and returned four kickoffs for 87 yards during Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs. |
| Quentin Johnston | Active | Johnston caught one of three targets for 57 yards in Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs. |
| Justin Herbert | Active | Herbert completed 22 of 37 passes for 204 yards, no touchdowns and one interception in Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs. He also rushed five times for 26 yards. |
| Omarion Hampton | Active | Hampton rushed seven times for 18 yards and caught all four of his targets for 21 yards in Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs. |
| Daiyan Henley | Active | Henley (knee) is active for Sunday's game against the Chiefs. |
| Jamaree Caldwell | Active | |
| Dalvin Tomlinson | Active | |
| Kendall Williamson | Active | |
| Elijah Molden | Active | |
| Justin Eboigbe | Active |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
76.8°F, wind 4.7 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (SF): ~314 miles, no time-zone change