Sat, Dec 19 at 8:20 PM ET · Highmark Stadium
Expected score: CHI 19.8 – BUF 26.4
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): CHI 2.74 · BUF 1.57
Team ratings (Elo): CHI 1558.7 vs BUF 1590.2. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
CHI (5-2) — 58 days rest
Last 5: 4-1 (2 straight wins)
| Oct 22, 2026 | NE | W | 30-24 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | ATL | W | 31-23 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | GB | L | 7-31 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | NYJ | W | 23-12 |
| Sep 28, 2026 | PHI | W | 27-7 |
BUF (5-1) — 62 days rest
Last 5: 4-1 (2 straight wins)
| Oct 18, 2026 | LV | W | 33-30 |
| Oct 12, 2026 | LAR | W | 37-34 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | NE | L | 26-29 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | LAC | W | 24-16 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | DET | W | 41-31 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| No meetings in coverage period | ||
Week 8 report — availability for Week 15 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 15.
CHI
| Anthony Johnson Jr. | Out | out |
| Kyle Monangai | Questionable | Monangai (thumb/toe) did not practice Thursday. |
| D'Marco Jackson | Questionable | questionable |
| Coby Bryant | Injured Reserve | Coach Ben Johnson said Wednesday that Bryant (knee) will start running again in the "near future," Courtney Cronin of ESPN.com reports. |
| Jack Sanborn | Questionable | questionable |
| Cole Kmet | Injured Reserve | The Bears placed Kmet (knee) on injured reserve Friday. |
| Malik Muhammad II | Questionable | Muhammad (toe) is doubtful to return to Thursday night's contest against the Patriots. |
| T.J. Edwards | Active | Edwards (hamstring) was considered to be a full participant on the Bears' estimated practice report Thursday. |
| Jeffery Simmons | Active | Simmons was traded to the Bears on Thursday, along with a 2028 fifth-round pick, in exchange for first-round picks in 2027 and 2028, as well as a 2027 fourth-round pick, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports. |
| Zavier Scott | Active | Chicago signed Scott from the practice squad to the active roster Tuesday. |
| Jayden Loving | Active | |
| Jordan McFadden | Active | |
| Case Keenum | Active | |
| Kyler Gordon | Active | Gordon recorded five tackles (three solo), including 1.0 sacks, in Thursday's 30-24 win over the Patriots. |
| Dillon Thieneman | Active | Thieneman tallied eight tackles (three solo), including 0.5 sacks, in a 30-24 victory versus the Patriots on Thursday. |
| Sam Roush | Active | Roush is expected to get more work on offense after Cole Kmet (knee) landed on injured reserve Friday. |
| Kalif Raymond | Active | Raymond did not catch either of his two targets and returned one punt for seven yards Thursday in a 30-24 win over New England. |
| Roschon Johnson | Active | Johnson rushed twice for 13 yards in the Bears' 30-24 victory over the Patriots on Thursday. |
| Montez Sweat | Active | The NFL reinstated Sweat on Friday after he served a two-game suspension for violating the league's performance-enhancing substances policy. |
| Rome Odunze | Active | Odunze brought in four of five targets for 69 yards in the Bears' 30-24 win over the Patriots on Thursday. |
| Colston Loveland | Active | Loveland secured seven of 12 targets for 69 yards and a touchdown during the Bears' 30-24 win over the Patriots on Thursday. |
| Cairo Santos | Active | Santos went 3-for-4 on field-goal tries and made all three of his extra-point attempts in Thursday's 30-24 win over New England. |
| D'Andre Swift | Active | Swift rushed 22 times for 78 yards and a touchdown and brought in all four targets for 12 yards in the Bears' 30-24 win over the Patriots on Thursday. |
| Luther Burden III | Active | Burden brought in all four targets for 130 yards and a touchdown and rushed once for seven yards in the Bears' 30-24 win over the Patriots on Thursday. |
| Caleb Williams | Active | Williams completed 22 of 33 passes for 308 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions while rushing five times for 18 yards in the Bears' 30-24 win over the Patriots on Thursday. |
BUF
| Dalton Kincaid | Questionable | Kincaid (chest) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| DJ Moore | Questionable | Moore (shoulder) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Joe Andreessen | Questionable | questionable |
| Ray Davis | Questionable | Davis didn't participate in Thursday's practice due to an illness, Matt Parrino of The Syracuse Post-Standard reports. |
| Tyrell Shavers | Out | The Bills designated Shavers (knee) to return from the reserve/PUP list Wednesday, but he will not play against the Ravens on Sunday, Cameron Wolfe of NFL Network reports. |
| TJ Parker | Questionable | questionable |
| Bradley Chubb | Questionable | questionable |
| Dee Alford | Questionable | questionable |
| Spencer Brown | Questionable | questionable |
| C.J. Gardner-Johnson | Suspension | reserve-sus |
| Ed Oliver | Active | Oliver (knee) was a full participant at the Bills' practice Thursday. |
| T.J. Sanders | Active | |
| Sam Franklin Jr. | Active | The NFL reduced Franklin's discipline from a one-game suspension to a fine of $14,926, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports. |
| Dorian Williams | Active | Williams logged five tackles (three solo) and one pass defensed for an interception in the Bills' 33-30 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Davison Igbinosun | Active | Defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard praised Igbinosun's play earlier this week and plans to keep giving the rookie a good amount of playing time, Alec White of the Bills' official site reports. Said Leonard, "I think what he's done the last couple weeks, he's definitely earned a high majority of the snaps at the corner position. I know what I'm getting, play in and play out." |
| Dawson Knox | Active | Knox caught his only target for no gain during Sunday's 33-30 win at Las Vegas. |
| Tyler Bass | Active | Bass converted all four of his field-goal attempts and all three of his extra-point tries during Buffalo's win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Ty Johnson | Active | Johnson logged a three-yard carry and caught both of his targets for 24 yards during the Bills' 33-30 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Joshua Palmer | Active | Palmer caught one of two targets for 37 yards during Buffalo's 33-30 win over Las Vegas on Sunday. |
| Mike Danna | Active | |
| Jude Bowry | Active | |
| Ar'maj Reed-Adams | Active | |
| Keon Coleman | Active | Coleman brought in four of six targets for 59 yards and a touchdown in the Bills' 33-30 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Khalil Shakir | Active | Shakir brought in four of six targets for 34 yards and a touchdown in the Bills' 33-30 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Josh Allen | Active | Allen completed 23 of 33 passes for 255 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions and rushed five times for one yard in the Bills' 33-30 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
45.0°F, wind 7.2 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (CHI): ~455 miles, 1h time-zone shift east