Sun, Dec 20 at 1:00 PM ET · Northwest Stadium
Expected score: ATL 23.0 – WSH 23.2
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): ATL 2.02 · WSH 1.98
Team ratings (Elo): ATL 1490.8 vs WSH 1428.6. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
ATL (3-4) — 56 days rest
Last 5: 3-2 (1 straight win)
| Oct 25, 2026 | SF | W | 29-20 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | CHI | L | 23-31 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | BAL | L | 23-30 |
| Oct 5, 2026 | NO | W | 45-24 |
| Sep 24, 2026 | GB | W | 35-14 |
WSH (1-4-1) — 61 days rest
Last 5: 1-3-1 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 19, 2026 | SF | L | 17-23 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | NYG | T | 27-27 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | IND | L | 13-30 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | SEA | W | 33-31 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | DAL | L | 20-37 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2024 | WSH 30 - ATL 24 | WSH |
| Sep 28, 2025 | ATL 34 - WSH 27 | ATL |
Week 8 report — availability for Week 15 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 15.
ATL
| A.J. Terrell Jr. | Questionable | Terrell (groin) was limited during Thursday's practice, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports. |
| C.J. Henderson | Questionable | Henderson (groin) was limited in Thursday's practice, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports. |
| Kendal Daniels | Questionable | Daniels (Achilles) was limited in Thursday's practice, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports. |
| Divine Deablo | Questionable | Deablo (forearm) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports. |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | Questionable | Zaccheaus (shoulder) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports. |
| Cameron Thomas | Questionable | questionable |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | Questionable | Robinson (hamstring) did not practice Thursday for the second day in a row, Will McFadden of the Falcons' official site reports. |
| Charles Snowden | Questionable | questionable |
| Jawaan Taylor | Questionable | questionable |
| LaCale London | Questionable | questionable |
| Samson Ebukam | Questionable | questionable |
| Avieon Terrell | Questionable | questionable |
| Billy Bowman Jr. | Questionable | questionable |
| Xavier Watts | Active | Watts notched seven tackles (three solo) and forced a fumble Sunday in a 29-20 Week 7 victory against the 49ers. |
| Jessie Bates III | Active | Bates registered nine tackles (two solo), two defensed passes (including an interception) and one forced fumble Sunday in a 29-20 victory over San Francisco. |
| Harold Perkins Jr. | Active | Perkins tallied nine tackles (four solo) in Sunday's 29-20 Week 7 win over the 49ers. |
| Zachariah Branch | Active | Branch brought in one of two targets for nine yards, logged an eight-yard carry and returned his lone kickoff for 61 yards during the Falcons' 29-20 win over the 49ers on Sunday. |
| Austin Hooper | Active | Hooper caught both of his targets for 21 yards in the Falcons' 29-20 win over the 49ers on Sunday. |
| Jahan Dotson | Active | Dotson caught one pass on three targets for six yards during Sundays' 29-20 win over San Francisco. |
| Nick Muse | Active | Muse caught both of his targets for two yards and a touchdown in the Falcons' 29-20 win over the 49ers on Sunday. |
| Khalil Herbert | Active | Herbert reverted to the Falcons' practice squad Monday, per the NFL's transaction log. |
| Jack Strand | Active | |
| Andy Dalton | Active | |
| Kyle Pitts Sr. | Active | Pitts brought in all five targets for 22 yards and a touchdown in the Falcons' 29-20 win over the 49ers on Sunday. |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Active | Penix completed 25 of 34 passes for 213 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions and added five carries for minus-1 yard in the Falcons' 29-20 win over the 49ers on Sunday. He also recovered a fumble. |
WSH
| Treylon Burks | Questionable | Burks (foot) didn't practice Thursday. |
| Nick Allegretti | Questionable | questionable |
| John Bates | Questionable | Bates was a non-participant in Thursday's practice due to a shoulder injury. |
| Laremy Tunsil | Injured Reserve | Tunsil (triceps) could potentially return late in the season, Nicki Jhabvala of The Athletic reports. |
| Javon Kinlaw | Doubtful | Head coach Dan Quinn said Wednesday that Kinlaw (knee) is "unlikely" to play against the Eagles on Sunday, Zach Selby of the Commanders' official site reports. |
| Jer'Zhan Newton | Injured Reserve | The Commanders designated Newton (pectoral) for return to practice from their injured reserve list Wednesday. |
| Terry McLaurin | Injured Reserve | The Commanders placed McLaurin (knee) on injured reserve Wednesday, Zach Selby of the team's official site reports. |
| Jaylin Lane | Injured Reserve | Lane underwent surgery Oct. 9 to repair his fractured and dislocated ankle, and he is expected to be cleared for activities before OTAs, Tashan Reed of The Washington Post reports. |
| Charles Omenihu | Questionable | questionable |
| Stefon Diggs | Active | Diggs (hand/hamstring) was a full practice participant Thursday. |
| Van Jefferson | Active | The Commanders signed Jefferson to the active roster Wednesday, Zach Selby of the team's official site reports. |
| Marcus Mariota | Active | Mariota (knee) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Antonio Williams | Active | Coach Dan Quinn noted Monday that with Terry McLaurin (knee) out for the season, Stefon Diggs' workload isn't expected to change much, however others, notably Williams, should see added opportunities in McLaurin's looming absence, Nicki Jhabvala of The Athletic reports. |
| Sonny Styles | Active | Styles finished Monday's 23-17 loss to the 49ers with 13 tackles (seven solo) and one pass defense. |
| Drew Stevens | Active | Stevens made his only field-goal try and converted both of his extra-point attempts during Monday's 23-17 loss at San Francisco. |
| Austin Ekeler | Active | Ekeler logged a three-yard carry and caught both of his targets for four yards during the Commanders' 23-17 loss to the 49ers on Monday. |
| Dyami Brown | Active | Brown hauled in his only target for six yards during Monday's 23-17 loss versus San Francisco. |
| Jeremy McNichols | Active | McNichols accrued five rushes for 13 yards during Monday's 23-17 loss to the 49ers. |
| T.J. Maguranyanga | Active | |
| Isaac Yiadom | Active | |
| Tanoa Togiai | Active | |
| Fabian Moreau | Active | |
| Chig Okonkwo | Active | Okonkwo brought in all seven targets for 69 yards in the Commanders' 23-17 loss to the 49ers on Monday night. |
| Rachaad White | Active | White rushed seven times for 27 yards and brought in four of five targets for 30 yards and a touchdown in the Commanders' 23-17 loss to the 49ers on Monday night. |
| Jayden Daniels | Active | Daniels completed 29 of 40 passes for 300 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions while adding four rushes for 10 yards in the Commanders' 23-17 loss to the 49ers on Monday night. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
49.5°F, wind 11.2 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (ATL): ~550 miles, no time-zone change