Sun, Dec 20 at 1:00 PM ET · Nissan Stadium
Expected score: IND 23.5 – TEN 22.7
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): IND 1.93 · TEN 2.07
Team ratings (Elo): IND 1456.6 vs TEN 1379.1. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
IND (2-5) — 56 days rest
Last 5: 2-3 (3 straight losses)
| Oct 25, 2026 | MIN | L | 10-16 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | TEN | L | 20-26 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | PIT | L | 22-34 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | WSH | W | 30-13 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | HOU | W | 19-17 |
TEN (1-6) — 56 days rest
Last 5: 1-4 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 25, 2026 | CLE | L | 24-27 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | IND | W | 26-20 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | HOU | L | 3-26 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | BAL | L | 18-24 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | NYG | L | 7-12 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2024 | TEN 17 - IND 20 | IND |
| Dec 22, 2024 | IND 38 - TEN 30 | IND |
| Sep 21, 2025 | TEN 20 - IND 41 | IND |
| Oct 26, 2025 | IND 38 - TEN 14 | IND |
| Oct 18, 2026 | IND 20 - TEN 26 | TEN |
Week 8 report — availability for Week 15 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 15.
IND
| Anthony Gould | Questionable | Gould (concussion) was a full participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Drew Ogletree | Questionable | Ogletree (knee) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Tyler Warren | Questionable | Warren (groin) was a limited participant at Thursday's practice. |
| Cam Taylor-Britt | Injured Reserve | The Colts placed Taylor-Britt on injured reserve Tuesday due to a groin injury, Nathan Brown of The Indianapolis Star reports. |
| Bryce Boettcher | Questionable | questionable |
| Justin Walley | Questionable | According to head coach Shane Steichen, Walley did not return to Sunday's 16-10 loss to Minnesota due to a knee injury, Kevin Bowen of 107.5 The Fan Indianapolis reports. |
| Alec Pierce | Injured Reserve | Colts head coach Shane Steichen said Monday that Pierce (heel) will "most likely not" have his 21-day practice window opened in Week 8, Jake Arthur of Roundtable.io reports. |
| Sauce Gardner | Active | Gardner (calf) practiced in full Thursday. |
| Matt Goncalves | Active | |
| Tim Smith | Active | |
| Jonathan Taylor | Active | Taylor told reporters Thursday that he hasn't requested a trade out of Indianapolis, Stephen Holder of ESPN.com reports. "I haven't heard anything, and I can't control that," Taylor said regarding the possibility of being traded. "Obviously, you guys know that I'm always proud to wear the horseshoe, proud to be here." |
| CJ Allen | Active | Allen (ankle) was listed as a full participant in Wednesday's walkthrough. |
| Josh Downs | Active | Downs formally requested a trade from the Colts on Wednesday, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com reports. |
| Akeem Davis-Gaither | Active | Davis-Gaither recorded seven tackles (three solo) in Sunday's loss to Minnesota. |
| Adetomiwa Adebawore | Active | Adebawore finished Sunday's loss to Minnesota with five tackles (four solo), including 2.0 sacks, and a defensed pass. |
| A.J. Haulcy | Active | Haulcy produced nine tackles (five solo) in a loss to the Vikings on Sunday. |
| DJ Giddens | Active | Giddens did not play a single snap during Sunday's 13-10 loss to the Vikings. |
| Will Mallory | Active | Mallory did not catch any of his three targets during Sunday's 16-10 loss to Minnesota. |
| Mo Alie-Cox | Active | Alie-Cox failed to haul in either of his targets during the Colts' 16-10 loss to the Vikings on Sunday. |
| Laquon Treadwell | Active | Treadwell caught both of his targets for 19 yards in the Colts' 16-10 loss to the Vikings on Sunday. |
| Seth McGowan | Active | McGowan turned 11 carries into 46 yards, caught his only target for two yards and added 140 yards as a kick returner during Sunday's 16-10 loss to the Vikings. |
| Keenan Allen | Active | Allen caught all three of his targets for 31 yards during Sunday's 16-10 loss to the Vikings. |
| Riley Leonard | Active | |
| Dalton Tucker | Active | |
| Daniel Jones | Active | Colts head coach Shane Steichen said that Jones will remain the team's starting quarterback in Sunday's game against the Jaguars, Mike Chappell of Fox 59 News Indianapolis reports. |
TEN
| Calvin Ridley | Questionable | Ridley (hip) was limited at practice Thursday, Jim Wyatt of the Titans' official site reports. |
| Tyjae Spears | Questionable | Spears (knee) isn't practicing Thursday, Terry McCormick of TitanInsider.com reports. |
| Carnell Tate | Questionable | Tate (shoulder) won't practice Thursday, Jim Wyatt of the Titans' official site reports. |
| John Franklin-Myers | Questionable | questionable |
| Tommy Townsend | Questionable | Titans head coach Robert Saleh said Monday that Townsend is still being evaluated after sustaining a left knee injury in Sunday's 27-24 loss to the Browns, Terry McCormick of TitanInsider.com reports. |
| Dorian Mausi | Injured Reserve | The Titans opened Mausi's 21-day practice window Wednesday, Jim Wyatt of the team's official website reports. |
| Jonah Laulu | Active | The Titans claimed Laulu off waivers from the Raiders on Wednesday, Jim Wyatt of the Titans' official site reports. |
| Amani Hooker | Active | Hooker posted five tackles (two solo) during Sunday's 27-24 loss to Cleveland. |
| Kevin Winston Jr. | Active | Winston logged 14 tackles (eight solo) during the Titans' 27-24 loss to the Browns on Sunday. |
| Anthony Hill Jr. | Active | Hill logged 12 tackles (five solo) and one forced fumble during the Titans' 27-24 loss to the Browns on Sunday. |
| Elic Ayomanor | Active | Ayomanor caught three of his seven targets for 44 yards in the Titans' 27-24 loss to the Browns on Sunday. |
| Jaylon Jones | Active | |
| Kylen Granson | Active | |
| Jackie Marshall | Active | |
| Nicholas Singleton | Active | |
| Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson | Active | |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | Active | Robinson caught four of seven targets for seven yards during Sunday's 27-24 loss to the Browns. |
| Gunnar Helm | Active | Helm caught three of four targets for 24 yards in Sunday's 27-24 loss to the Browns. |
| Cam Ward | Active | Ward completed 20 of 31 passes for 181 yards with an interception in Sunday's 27-24 loss to Cleveland. He added five yards on two carries. |
| Tony Pollard | Active | Pollard carried the ball 25 times for 129 yards and three touchdowns in Sunday's 27-24 loss to the Browns. He also caught all three of his targets for 26 yards. |
| Joey Slye | Active | Slye made his only field-goal attempt while going 3-for-3 on extra-point tries during Sunday's 27-24 loss to the Browns. |
| Tony Adams | Active | Adams (ankle) is active for Sunday's game against the Browns. |
| Timmy Horne | Active | The Titans signed Horne from the practice squad to the active roster Saturday, Jim Wyatt of the team's official site reports. |
| Alontae Taylor | Active | |
| Joshua Williams | Active | The Titans activated Williams (pectoral) from reserve/PUP on Saturday. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
48.6°F, wind 4.0 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (IND): ~250 miles, 1h time-zone shift west