Sun, Dec 20 at 1:00 PM ET · Lambeau Field
Expected score: MIA 18.1 – GB 28.1
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): MIA 3.28 · GB 1.44
Team ratings (Elo): MIA 1443.1 vs GB 1521.5. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
MIA (1-5) — 56 days rest
Last 5: 1-4 (1 straight win)
| Oct 25, 2026 | NYJ | W | 28-25 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | CIN | L | 24-31 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | MIN | L | 10-15 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | KC | L | 10-24 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | SF | L | 13-35 |
GB (5-3) — 51 days rest
Last 5: 4-1 (1 straight win)
| Oct 29, 2026 | CAR | W | 27-19 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | DET | L | 17-20 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | DAL | W | 23-13 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | CHI | W | 31-7 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | TB | W | 17-14 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2024 | GB 30 - MIA 17 | GB |
Week 8 report — availability for Week 15 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 15.
MIA
| Jared Wayne | Questionable | Wayne (knee) was a limited practice participant Thursday, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. |
| Will Kacmarek | Questionable | Kacmarek (hamstring) practiced in a limited capacity Thursday, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. |
| JuJu Brents | Questionable | Brents (neck/concussion) was a limited practice participant Thursday, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. |
| Greg Dulcich | Questionable | Dulcich (ankle) remained limited at practice Thursday, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. |
| Malik Washington | Questionable | Washington (knee) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. |
| Kadyn Proctor | Questionable | Proctor sustained a concussion during Sunday's game against the Jets, Alain Poupart of SI.com reports. |
| Michael Taaffe | Questionable | questionable |
| Dante Trader Jr. | Questionable | questionable |
| Tucker Addington | Questionable | questionable |
| Reese Taylor | Questionable | questionable |
| Robert Beal Jr. | Active | Beal (hamstring) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Marcel Louis-Jacques of ESPN.com reports. |
| Willie Gay Jr. | Active | Gay (illness) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Marcel Louis-Jacques of ESPN.com reports. |
| Jaylen Wright | Active | Wright (quadriceps/foot) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Marcel Louis-Jacques of ESPN.com reports. |
| Jacob Rodriguez | Active | Rodriguez tallied four tackles (one solo) during Miami's win over the Jets on Sunday. |
| Jordyn Brooks | Active | Brooks posted nine tackles (five solo) during the Dolphins' win Sunday over the Jets. |
| Kevin Coleman Jr. | Active | Coleman did not catch his only target in the Dolphins' 28-25 win over the Jets on Sunday. |
| Chris Bell | Active | Bell caught three of his four targets for 25 yards in the Dolphins' 28-25 win over the Jets on Sunday. |
| Kaytron Allen | Active | Allen logged six snaps on special teams and didn't show up on the box score otherwise during Sunday's 28-25 win over the Jets. |
| Zane Gonzalez | Active | Gonzalez reverted to the Dolphins' practice squad Monday, per the NFL's transaction log. |
| Chukwuebuka Godrick | Active | |
| Marcellas Dial Jr. | Active | |
| Jalen Tolbert | Active | |
| Caleb Douglas | Active | Douglas (ankle) caught two of three targets for 70 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 28-25 win over the Jets. |
| Malik Willis | Active | Willis completed 14 of 21 passes for 208 yards and two touchdowns while rushing six times for 39 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 28-25 win over the Jets. |
| Ollie Gordon II | Active | Gordon rushed 25 times for 103 yards and a touchdown while catching one of three targets for no gain in Sunday's 28-25 win over the Jets. |
GB
| Christian Watson | Questionable | Watson said he suffered a broken rib in Thursday night's 27-19 win over the Panthers, Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com reports. |
| Kaleb Johnson | Out | Johnson (coach's decision) is inactive for Thursday's game against the Panthers, Mike Spofford of the team's official site reports. |
| Jonnu Smith | Out | Smith (coach's decision) is inactive for Thursday's game against the Panthers Mike Spofford of the team's official site reports. |
| Sean Rhyan | Out | inactive |
| Travis Glover | Out | inactive |
| Donovan Jennings | Out | inactive |
| Zaire Franklin | Out | inactive |
| Micah Parsons | Out | Packers head coach Matt LaFleur said Tuesday that Parsons (knee) has "a chance" to resume practicing next week, Matt Schneidman of The Athletic reports. |
| MarShawn Lloyd | Active | Lloyd rushed three times for seven yards and brought in his only target for nine yards in the Packers' 27-19 win over the Panthers on Thursday. |
| Trey Smack | Active | Smack converted three of four extra-point tries and didn't attempt a field goal Thursday in a 27-19 win over Carolina. |
| Jordan Love | Active | Love completed 30 of 41 passes for 288 yards with three touchdowns and one interception and recovered a fumble in the Packers' 27-19 win over the Panthers on Thursday. |
| Tucker Kraft | Active | Kraft secured all six targets for 53 yards and a touchdown in the Packers' 27-19 win over the Panthers on Thursday. |
| Matthew Golden | Active | Golden brought in seven of 13 targets for 79 yards and a touchdown in the Packers' 27-19 win over the Panthers on Thursday. |
| Josh Jacobs | Active | Jacobs rushed 21 times for 39 yards and a touchdown and brought in all six targets for 13 yards and another score in the Packers' 27-19 win over the Panthers on Thursday. |
| Devonte Wyatt | Active | Wyatt (ankle) is active for Thursday's game against the Panthers, Mike Spofford of the team's official site reports. |
| Keisean Nixon | Active | Nixon (shoulder) is active for Thursday's game against Carolina, Mike Spofford of the team's official site reports. |
| Anthony Campbell | Active | |
| Brenton Cox Jr. | Active | |
| Aaron Banks | Active | |
| Evan Williams | Active | Williams finished Sunday's 20-17 loss to the Lions with nine tackles (five solo) and one pass defense. |
| Isaiah McDuffie | Active | McDuffie logged 11 tackles (six solo), one fumble and one fumble recovery during the Packers' 20-17 loss to the Lions on Sunday. |
| Xavier McKinney | Active | McKinney posted 10 tackles (four solo) during Sunday's 20-17 loss to the Lions. |
| Bo Melton | Active | Melton caught one of his two targets for four yards and logged a 24-yard kickoff return in the Packers' 20-17 loss to the Lions on Sunday. |
| Savion Williams | Active | Williams caught three passes on as many targets for 47 yards and turned two carries into four yards during the Packers' 20-17 loss to the Lions on Sunday. |
| Benjamin St-Juste | Active | St-Juste (hamstring) was estimated as a full participant on Monday's practice report, Matt Schneidman of The Athletic reports. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
44.4°F, wind 3.6 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (MIA): ~1,354 miles, 1h time-zone shift west