Sun, Dec 20 at 4:25 PM ET · SoFi Stadium
Expected score: DAL 18.3 – LAR 27.9
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): DAL 3.21 · LAR 1.45
Team ratings (Elo): DAL 1474.8 vs LAR 1547.9. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
DAL (3-4) — 54 days rest
Last 5: 2-3 (1 straight win)
| Oct 26, 2026 | PHI | W | 38-21 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | GB | L | 13-23 |
| Oct 8, 2026 | TB | L | 16-24 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | HOU | W | 34-30 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | BAL | L | 31-34 |
LAR (3-4) — 56 days rest
Last 5: 2-3 (1 straight win)
| Oct 25, 2026 | LV | W | 35-21 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | ARI | L | 16-18 |
| Oct 12, 2026 | BUF | L | 34-37 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | PHI | W | 24-20 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | DEN | L | 26-30 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| No meetings in coverage period | ||
Week 8 report — availability for Week 15 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 15.
DAL
| Quinnen Williams | Questionable | Williams (hamstring) practiced in a limited fashion Thursday, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports. |
| Caleb Downs | Questionable | Downs (ankle) was a limited practice participant Thursday, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports. |
| Dee Winters | Questionable | Winters (calf) didn't practice Thursday, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports. |
| KaVontae Turpin | Questionable | Turpin (ribs) was a non-participant in practice Thursday, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports. |
| Jonathan Bullard | Injured Reserve | Bullard (calf) was designated to return from injured reserve by the Cowboys on Thursday. |
| George Pickens | Questionable | Pickens (shoulder/hamstring) was a limited participant at Thursday's practice, Jon Machota of The Athletic reports. |
| Luke Schoonmaker | Questionable | questionable |
| Drew Shelton | Questionable | questionable |
| P.J. Locke | Injured Reserve | Locke (foot) has been downgraded from questionable to out for Monday's game against the Eagles. |
| Marist Liufau | Injured Reserve | Liufau (forearm) has been downgraded from questionable to out ahead of Monday night's game against the Eagles. |
| Brandon Aubrey | Active | Aubrey made all three of his field-goal attempts and all three PAT tries in Monday's 38-21 win over the Eagles. |
| DeMarvion Overshown | Active | Overshown posted six tackles (five solo) and two pass defenses (including one interception) during the Cowboys' 38-21 win over the Eagles on Monday. |
| Jake Ferguson | Active | Ferguson failed to haul in his lone target during Monday's 38-21 win over the Eagles. |
| Tyler Goodson | Active | Goodson turned 10 carries into 38 yards and returned two kickoffs for 42 yards during the Cowboys' 38-21 win over the Eagles on Monday. |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | Active | Spann-Ford finished with two catches for 11 yards on two targets in Monday's 38-21 win over the Eagles. |
| Tyrus Wheat | Active | |
| Ryan Flournoy | Active | Flournoy secured all four targets for 70 yards in the Cowboys' 38-21 win over the Eagles on Monday night. |
| Javonte Williams | Active | Williams rushed 25 times for 155 yards and a touchdown in the Cowboys' 38-21 win over the Eagles on Monday night. |
| Dak Prescott | Active | Prescott completed 15 of 27 passes for 212 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions while adding two rushes for eight yards in the Cowboys' 38-21 win over the Eagles on Monday night. He also had a two-point conversion run. |
| CeeDee Lamb | Active | Lamb brought in five of 12 targets for 74 yards and two touchdowns in the Cowboys' 38-21 win over the Eagles on Monday night. |
| Cobie Durant | Active | Durant (hamstring) does not have an injury designation for Monday's game against Philadelphia, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports. |
| Broderick Jones | Active | |
| Tyler Guyton | Active | |
| Juanyeh Thomas | Active | Thomas was signed to the Cowboys' active roster Tuesday. |
| James Houston | Active |
LAR
| Colby Parkinson | Questionable | Parkinson (ribs) didn't practice Thursday, Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com reports. |
| Nate Landman | Questionable | Landman (concussion) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Stu Jackson of the Rams' official site reports. |
| Trent McDuffie | Questionable | McDuffie (groin) was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice, Stu Jackson of the Rams' official site reports. |
| Coleman Shelton | Questionable | questionable |
| Joe Cardona | Questionable | questionable |
| Terrance Ferguson | Injured Reserve | Ferguson (ankle) won't return to practice this week, Greg Beacham of the Associated Press reports. |
| Davante Adams | Injured Reserve | Head coach Sean McVay said Wednesday that Adams had successful surgery on his left hamstring, and the Rams are hopeful that the wide receiver will be able to return on the early side of his 6-to-10-week recovery timetable, Adam Grosbard of The Orange County Register reports. |
| Myles Garrett | Injured Reserve | Head coach Sean McVay said Wednesday that the Rams won't open Garrett's (knee) practice window this week, Greg Beacham of the Associated Press reports. |
| Kam Curl | Active | Curl logged four tackles (two solo) during the Rams' 35-21 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Quentin Lake | Active | Lake finished Sunday's 35-21 win over the Raiders with seven tackles (four solo). |
| Jordan Whittington | Active | Whittington wasn't targeted in Sunday's 35-21 win over the Raiders. |
| Tutu Atwell | Active | Atwell wasn't targeted in Sunday's 35-21 win over the Raiders. |
| Konata Mumpfield | Active | Mumpfield caught one of two targets for 15 yards during Sunday's 35-21 win at Las Vegas. |
| Tyler Higbee | Active | Higbee caught two of three targets for 14 yards during Sunday's 35-21 win over the Raiders. |
| Bill Murray | Active | |
| Max Klare | Active | |
| Keagen Trost | Active | |
| Matthew Stafford | Active | Stafford completed 23 of 29 passes for 195 yards with three touchdowns and one interception and rushed three times for minus-3 yards in the Rams' 35-21 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Blake Corum | Active | Corum rushed 17 times for 93 yards and a touchdown and brought in his only target for eight yards in the Rams' 35-21 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Davis Allen | Active | Allen caught four of five targets for 20 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 35-21 win over the Raiders. |
| Kyren Williams | Active | Williams rushed 16 times for 99 yards and a touchdown and brought in both targets for 22 yards in the Rams' 35-21 win over the Raiders on Sunday. He also lost a fumble. |
| Puka Nacua | Active | Nacua brought in eight of 10 targets for 68 yards and a touchdown and rushed twice for 10 yards in the Rams' 35-21 win over the Raiders on Sunday. |
| Brandon McManus | Active | McManus did not attempt a field goal and went 5-for-5 on extra-point tries during Sunday's 35-21 win over the Raiders. |
| Jaylen Watson | Active | |
| Ty Simpson | Active | Simpson (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the Rams' emergency third quarterback against the Raiders on Sunday, Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com reports. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
76.8°F, wind 4.7 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (DAL): ~1,227 miles, 2h time-zone shift west