Mon, Dec 21 at 8:15 PM ET · Arrowhead Stadium
Expected score: NE 24.7 – KC 21.5
Total anchored to the league-wide baseline of 46.2 points — a shared baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Home-field adjustment included (+65 Elo rating points)
Fair odds (display only): NE 1.76 · KC 2.32
Team ratings (Elo): NE 1608.9 vs KC 1496.2. 393 games trained (Oct 30).
Model: nfl-elo-v2 — Elo ratings trained on real ESPN results (2025 regular+postseason and 2026 regular season to date), chronological replay, K=20, home advantage = 65 Elo rating points, applied only at true home venues: games the feed flags neutral-site get no home bonus, in training and in prediction. Totals baseline is the mean total points of the training games (measured, not assumed). Score-model spread/total probabilities use the engine's bivariate-normal assumptions (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters. No backtest against closing lines exists; treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
What the win probability uses: Elo ratings only, plus a home-field adjustment of 65 Elo rating points at true home venues (no adjustment at feed-flagged neutral sites).
Contextual research (displayed, not in the calculation): Contextual research only — form, rest, injuries, head-to-head, weather, and travel do not change the win probability above.
Totals: Expected scores are centered on a shared league-wide totals baseline of 46.2 points (the mean total of the training games) — a baseline, not a matchup-specific forecast.
Score-distribution assumptions: Spread/total probabilities assume team scores are bivariate normal (score std 13.5, correlation 0.3) — documented approximations, not measured NFL parameters.
Validation status: No backtest against closing lines exists. Treat all outputs as experimental uncertain forecasts.
Data used
NE (4-3) — 60 days rest
Last 5: 3-2 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 22, 2026 | CHI | L | 24-30 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | NYJ | W | 26-19 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | LV | W | 45-17 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | BUF | W | 29-26 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | JAX | L | 6-35 |
KC (5-1) — 57 days rest
Last 5: 4-1 (1 straight loss)
| Oct 25, 2026 | SEA | L | 3-20 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | LAC | W | 22-6 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | LV | W | 30-27 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | MIA | W | 24-10 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | IND | W | 33-30 |
Coverage: 2024-2026 regular+postseason schedules (ESPN)
| Date | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| No meetings in coverage period | ||
Week 8 report — availability for Week 15 unknown. These designations were published for Week 8's games. They are the latest available report, kept as dated context; they do not say who will be available in Week 15.
NE
| TreVeyon Henderson | Questionable | Henderson (illness) did not practice Thursday, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. |
| A.J. Brown | Questionable | Brown (ankle/knee) was officially listed as a non-participant at Thursday's practice, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. |
| Morgan Moses | Questionable | questionable |
| DaQuan Jones | Questionable | questionable |
| Ben Brown | Questionable | questionable |
| Alijah Vera-Tucker | Injured Reserve | Vera-Tucker (hamstring) was placed on injured reserve by the Patriots on Thursday. |
| Channing Canada | Active | Canada (hamstring) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Karon Prunty | Active | Prunty (hamstring) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Carlton Davis III | Active | Davis (neck) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Joshua Farmer | Active | |
| Behren Morton | Active | |
| Marcus Jones | Active | Jones registered nine tackles (five solo), including 1.0 sacks, and returned one punt for 19 yards in Thursday's loss to the Bears. |
| Christian Elliss | Active | Elliss tallied 13 tackles (eight solo) in a Week 7 loss to Chicago on Thursday. |
| Kyle Williams | Active | Williams returned two kickoffs for 47 yards and failed to haul in his lone target during the Patriots' 30-24 loss to the Bears on Thursday. |
| Corey Kiner | Active | Kiner rushed four times for 13 yards in Thursday's Week 7 loss to Chicago. He also returned four kickoffs for 102 yards. |
| Eli Raridon | Active | Raridon caught three of four targets for 56 yards and a touchdown in Thursday's Week 7 loss to the Bears. |
| Efton Chism III | Active | Chism caught his sole target for 16 yards in the Patriots' 30-24 loss to the Bears on Thursday. |
| DeMario Douglas | Active | Douglas caught three of his four targets for 23 yards in the Patriots' 30-24 loss to the Bears on Thursday. |
| Hunter Henry | Active | Henry secured all seven targets for 71 yards in the Patriots' 30-24 loss to the Bears on Thursday. |
| Andy Borregales | Active | Borregales made his only field-goal attempt and was successful on all three extra-point tries Thursday in a Week 7 loss to the Bears. |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | Active | Stevenson rushed six times for 22 yards and brought in all five targets for 93 yards and a touchdown in the Patriots' 30-24 loss to the Bears on Thursday. |
| Drake Maye | Active | Maye completed 24 of 31 passes for 321 yards with two touchdowns and one interception while adding four rushes for 26 yards and another score in the Patriots' 30-24 loss to the Bears on Thursday. |
| Craig Woodson | Active | Woodson (shoulder) is officially active for Thursday's game against the Bears. |
| Kevin Byard | Active | Byard (chest) is officially active for Thursday's game at Chicago. |
| Christian Gonzalez | Active | Gonzalez (illness) is listed as active for Thursday night's game against the Bears. |
KC
| Mansoor Delane | Questionable | Delane (shoulder) did not practice Thursday. |
| Rashee Rice | Questionable | Rice (hamstring/knee) remained a limited participant at Thursday's practice. |
| Travis Kelce | Questionable | Kelce (ankle) was listed as a limited participant in Thursday's practice. |
| Jaylon Moore | Questionable | Moore (concussion) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. |
| Omarr Norman-Lott | Out | The Chiefs designated Norman-Lott (knee) to return from injured reserve Wednesday. |
| L'Jarius Sneed | Questionable | questionable |
| Brashard Smith | Injured Reserve | The Chiefs placed Smith (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday. |
| Cyrus Allen | Active | Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said Wednesday that Allen will "get a little bit more [snaps]" during Sunday's game against the Broncos, Nate Taylor of ESPN.com reports. |
| Harrison Butker | Active | Head coach Andy Reid said Wednesday that Butker will "probably" serve as the Chiefs' kicker in Sunday's game against the Broncos, Sam McDowell of The Kansas City Star reports. |
| Chamarri Conner | Active | Conner finished Sunday's 20-3 loss to Seattle with seven tackles (two solo). |
| Nohl Williams | Active | Williams finished Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks with 10 tackles (four solo) and one interception. |
| Nick Bolton | Active | Bolton registered 11 tackles (six solo) during the Chiefs' 20-3 loss to the Seahawks on Sunday. |
| Drue Tranquill | Active | Tranquill finished Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks with 12 tackles (four solo). |
| Andrew Armstrong | Active | Armstrong caught one of two targets for three yards during Sunday night's 20-3 loss to Seattle. |
| Noah Gray | Active | Gray caught three passes on as many targets for 44 yards during Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks. |
| Emmett Johnson | Active | Johnson caught two of three passes for 17 yards and returned three kickoffs for 81 yards during Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks. He also added two tackles on special teams. |
| Ben VanSumeren | Active | |
| Jack Pyburn | Active | |
| Jadon Canady | Active | |
| Xavier Worthy | Active | Worthy caught three of six targets for 11 yards in Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks. |
| Patrick Mahomes | Active | Mahomes completed 19 of 33 passes for 165 yards, no touchdowns and one interception in Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks. He added two rushing attempts for 14 yards. |
| Kenneth Walker III | Active | Walker rushed 14 times for 36 yards while catching four of five targets for 21 yards in Sunday's 20-3 loss to the Seahawks. |
| Garrett Nussmeier | Active | Nussmeier (coach's decision) is inactive as the emergency third quarterback for Sunday night's game against the Seahawks. |
| Cooper McDonald | Active | The Chiefs activated McDonald (knee) from injured reserve Saturday. |
| Jaydn Ott | Active | The Chiefs signed Ott from the practice squad to the active roster Saturday. |
Labels: Out = confirmed unavailable; Doubtful = projected unavailable; Questionable = projected uncertain.
48.7°F, wind 3.4 mph, precip — mm (next 1h),
Forecast for Sun, Nov 8 at 7:00 PM ET (updated Oct 30). Weather data: MET Norway (api.met.no), CC BY 4.0 / NLOD 2.0
Travel (NE): ~1,233 miles, 1h time-zone shift west